V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த்

Complete Boomer, you are said my kid. And quite old fashioned chimed his friends. Finally, some truth said my spouse.

[Halvar Flake @halvarflake]

@xmonitorlizard ...to understand what's going on there: The Lutnick/Bessent spat, the US not reacting to Singapore requesting assistance in providing data to charge the Megaspeed CEO, the timing of the leaks. Very little of that makes sense to me from the outside. But...

[Halvar Flake @halvarflake]

@xmonitorlizard I don't think this is a conspiracy to lock down open models. I think that Jensen had exposure he shouldn't have - not the affairs, but the allegations of aiding export control violations. And that ultimately someone decided to leak that to the press. And I don't pretend...

[Halvar Flake @halvarflake]

@xmonitorlizard I do think that somebody leaked stuff about Jensen intentionally, with the agenda of ousting him. And that he was an extremely smart and strategic business leader.

All of these are true simultaneously.

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

This is almost my view too @policytensor. The entire thing is tailor made for American dominance and closed source models.

[Halvar Flake @halvarflake]

As someone more worried about concentration risks than proliferation risks, and holding the belief that open models and a strong open ecosystem are a net good, I am worried about the consequences of Jensen's ouster. It plays into the hands of of people who believe themselves...

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

Tehran is not done w/ Regime change. It is going to happen in several countries as the cost of living will lead to voter unrest who will blame the governing factions.

I and @ssmumbai extend @policytensor's game of mercy hypothesis to political costs.
https://t.co/Iaq6ymDKoC

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

There are four classes of Indians - Bottom is Broke, Next is DBT, one level up is salary, Next level up is local business.

The mlechha class who earns foreign currency is not truly Indian. That is the regulatory thinking. They should all go to Srilanka for better treatment.

[Indra @IndraVahan]

i am once again being punished for my indian nationality. FEMA checks have turned 2-3 day inward payments into a 7-28 day ordeal with banks demanding signed-sealed purpose-code docs & invoices for every transaction. how the fuck are people running int businesses? need solutions

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

I am deeply impressed about Operation Honey Pot, which successfully exploited the fact that the entire AI race can be won by playing on the self-image of Tech CEOs being irresistible to women, as a fiddle.

[Mark Manning @antitree]

Finding CVEs is now the new 3D printing for infosec: There's no effort, nobody wants them, and we all have to pretend to be impressed.

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

Unlike trees accelerating the flowering when they sense distress, Indians accelerate the distress by burning flowerpots.

It is a foundational Indian quality - Zero awareness about the world around while being stuck in manufactured cultured norms from a different millennia.

[pH @pHequals7]

as a country we have zero self preservation qualities

happy deepavalli to everyone 😷

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

@policytensor Why would they want to move away from Low energy Chinese mode, when eventually they get all, they want from it anyway?

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

I do not feel deference in your words. Therefore, you are in contempt of me.

or in other words, I feel, therefore you should not.

[Gautam Bhatia @gautambhatia88]

@catcheronthesly They think contempt is when feelings are hurt.

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

@nixxin Correct context.

Subsidy only conditional on Voter ID. They are going to create massive statelessness and poverty and convert subsidy into a threat for removal from voter ID or as a inducement to keep them on line.

https://t.co/UiMm9bbbDr

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

@AmanWadud @achakrava @VidyaKrishnan This is how it will work.

S1: Declare a person as doubtful indian.
S2: Freeze biometrics
S3: No ration, NREGA across country (True purpose of One nation One ration)
S4: PAN cancellation
S5: Aadhaar deactivation.
S6: Biometrics on banned list.

That is why it is what it is.

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

@nixxin You mis-understand. It is not what you all think.

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

The crude bull case is also the bear case for collapse of Israeli influence. Every govt that gets thrown out for cost of living will end up with some deep-seated revulsion for them.

So yeah, Tehran is going to deliver lots of changes all around.

https://t.co/fxBSlbgjKR

[Policy Tensor @policytensor]

THE BULL CASE FOR CRUDE

Mercy, a Schelling-style competition in pain tolerance, requires costly signaling. You have to eat costs to signal resolve. The more painful the costs that are absorbed, the stronger the resolve signal since it faithfully distinguishes between a highly resolved 'strong type' from a poorly resolved 'weak type'. This is called a separating equilibrium in the theory of asymmetric information games.

'See how resolved I am? See how much pain I am willing to take to get my way? You better back down.'

Given the incentives and motivations of all politicians, particularly narcissistic ones, Trump's unwillingness to capitulate to save his party in the midterms is a very strong signal of his resolve. He may not have known the scale of the disaster that awaited him. But Susie is not stupid. She told him in broad terms the costs he was likely to bear if he did not make a deal. He chose to eat the costs rather than capitulate. Why?

The reason is that he is unwilling to give the concessions that the Iranians are demanding. I doubt he cares about the money. And Iran has been prepared from even before the war to make concessions on the nuclear file that he can sell as a great victory. So what is the blockage?

The blockage is quite specific and related to what I have called Iran's big ask. The Iranians are demanding that the US accept their authority over Hormuz. People have misunderstood this issue from the very beginning. It is not about tolls — tolls are not the end of the world. It is not about Iran's ability to shoot at ships — that is not going anywhere regardless of any agreement.

The issue is that US-Iran agreement that gives Iran the authority to regulate transit through Hormuz is tatamount to the US accepting Iranian mastery over the gulf. Iran would be able to use the Hormuz weapon against the Gulf Arabs, targeting them individually to secure compliance with its foreign policy objectives. It will be able to similarly coerce countries that rely on access to gulf energy: Japan, India, the Europeans. And it will be able to do so without triggering a casus belli.

As @vali_nasr put it, surrendering Hormuz to Iran will turn the gulf into an Iranian lake. And this in turn would turn Iran into the fourth world power, as @ProfessorPape pointed out very early on the pages of the NYTimes.

So the Hormuz question is really about who will be the master of the gulf. Trump or any other US president cannot surrender Hormuz under anything except extreme duress. For imperial managers, such a surrender is almost unthinkable. It is a very difficult pill to swallow because it blows US pretensions to global primacy to smithereens.

Why are the Iranians demanding mastery over the gulf as the price of letting the US go? The answer is that the Iranians came to believe as early as March that the Hormuz weapon is their get out of jail free card. It a gun cocked at the head of the West. Without it, the West will place them into the sort of box it put Saddam in after Kuwait. With it, they can rely on a balance of economic terror to keep the West in line.

So one can see the point of the big ask. But at what price? As far I can tell, the Iranians are resolved to hold fast for as long as it takes, even if it takes many years.

What we have learned from the midterms is that the US is also highly resolved. There is a chance that we get a post-imperialist president in 2029, one who is willing to capitulate on the Hormuz question as part and parcel of a general abandonment of the empire and pull back to the western hemisphere. But it is only a small chance. The bulk of the probability is that the US will remain resolved for years until the costs become truly prohibitive. The empire is prepared to die on this hill. At any rate, there is no reason now for the Administration to capitulate right after it has paid such a hefty price.

That is why there is not going to be a deal. That is the bull case for crude.

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

The bull case of crude lasting 5 years is the exit case for many Asian and European governments.

They are all NPC in mercy game. And their voters are livid being a NPC and they are going to take the govts out.

My dollar, your problem has become My empire, your govt problem.

[Policy Tensor @policytensor]

THE BULL CASE FOR CRUDE

Mercy, a Schelling-style competition in pain tolerance, requires costly signaling. You have to eat costs to signal resolve. The more painful the costs that are absorbed, the stronger the resolve signal since it faithfully distinguishes between a highly resolved 'strong type' from a poorly resolved 'weak type'. This is called a separating equilibrium in the theory of asymmetric information games.

'See how resolved I am? See how much pain I am willing to take to get my way? You better back down.'

Given the incentives and motivations of all politicians, particularly narcissistic ones, Trump's unwillingness to capitulate to save his party in the midterms is a very strong signal of his resolve. He may not have known the scale of the disaster that awaited him. But Susie is not stupid. She told him in broad terms the costs he was likely to bear if he did not make a deal. He chose to eat the costs rather than capitulate. Why?

The reason is that he is unwilling to give the concessions that the Iranians are demanding. I doubt he cares about the money. And Iran has been prepared from even before the war to make concessions on the nuclear file that he can sell as a great victory. So what is the blockage?

The blockage is quite specific and related to what I have called Iran's big ask. The Iranians are demanding that the US accept their authority over Hormuz. People have misunderstood this issue from the very beginning. It is not about tolls — tolls are not the end of the world. It is not about Iran's ability to shoot at ships — that is not going anywhere regardless of any agreement.

The issue is that US-Iran agreement that gives Iran the authority to regulate transit through Hormuz is tatamount to the US accepting Iranian mastery over the gulf. Iran would be able to use the Hormuz weapon against the Gulf Arabs, targeting them individually to secure compliance with its foreign policy objectives. It will be able to similarly coerce countries that rely on access to gulf energy: Japan, India, the Europeans. And it will be able to do so without triggering a casus belli.

As @vali_nasr put it, surrendering Hormuz to Iran will turn the gulf into an Iranian lake. And this in turn would turn Iran into the fourth world power, as @ProfessorPape pointed out very early on the pages of the NYTimes.

So the Hormuz question is really about who will be the master of the gulf. Trump or any other US president cannot surrender Hormuz under anything except extreme duress. For imperial managers, such a surrender is almost unthinkable. It is a very difficult pill to swallow because it blows US pretensions to global primacy to smithereens.

Why are the Iranians demanding mastery over the gulf as the price of letting the US go? The answer is that the Iranians came to believe as early as March that the Hormuz weapon is their get out of jail free card. It a gun cocked at the head of the West. Without it, the West will place them into the sort of box it put Saddam in after Kuwait. With it, they can rely on a balance of economic terror to keep the West in line.

So one can see the point of the big ask. But at what price? As far I can tell, the Iranians are resolved to hold fast for as long as it takes, even if it takes many years.

What we have learned from the midterms is that the US is also highly resolved. There is a chance that we get a post-imperialist president in 2029, one who is willing to capitulate on the Hormuz question as part and parcel of a general abandonment of the empire and pull back to the western hemisphere. But it is only a small chance. The bulk of the probability is that the US will remain resolved for years until the costs become truly prohibitive. The empire is prepared to die on this hill. At any rate, there is no reason now for the Administration to capitulate right after it has paid such a hefty price.

That is why there is not going to be a deal. That is the bull case for crude.

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

@suchetadalal @Moneylifers @ssmumbai By design, our bank accounts have lot less observability for users than our social media accounts. It is like a foundational bed rock which is designed for losses for citizens. And as to how money disappears, money laundering is now automated. Only place Digital India works :-).

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

@suchetadalal On this, I have a lot more to tell you and @Moneylifers

But TLDR - Our banking security is based on absolute trust on bankers and RBI and zero trust on citizens. Wrote 40K words on this in my book with @ssmumbai.

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

India's default policy framework is creation of collaborative caste system w/ wink-wink-nod-nod licensing system. One just needs to look the terrible failure of how regulation fails on Mobile App stores and people swapping APKs like bacteria swapping DNA.

[Chandra R. Srikanth @chandrarsrikant]

🚨 Important story: MeitY's AI training framework proposes model vetting, raises questions over approval norms

The IT ministry's draft framework for training AI models proposes an end-to-end approach focused on privacy and security, but also includes a provision that is bound to raise eyebrows in the industry.

The framework says AI models being trained under the framework should be verified as "fit for use" before it is deployed, and recommends the government to take up that due diligence process.

“Industry should treat it as a proto-licence that could harden into one through future rules or sectoral guidelines,” Salman Waris, Founder and Managing Partner at law firm TechLegis told Moneycontrol, after explaining the draft in its current form has enough caveats for the industry to not be alarmed.

However, Sharad Sharma, the co-founder of iSPIRT Foundation and also member of the steering committee that drafted this framework, dismissed the categorisation of this structure as “licensing”.

“The proposal is to establish a self-regulatory, multistakeholder governance collective bringing together data providers, AI developers, technology providers, domain experts, civil society and government representatives. The collective would undertake due diligence, oversee and enforce compliance with standards governing privacy, security, fairness, and other dimensions of safe and trustworthy AI within the DEPA ecosystem, in alignment with applicable laws. This is distinct from government licensing, which may grant or withhold statutory permission to develop or deploy AI models,” he told Moneycontrol

By @AihikS

https://t.co/f0HZdeizpW

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

The correct formulation is - Tehran brought regime change to Texas faster than DC brought it to Tehran.

[Mark McKinnon @mmckinnon]

Trump brought regime change to Texas faster than to Tehran

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

@policytensor Yes, you point its incoherence. Them resisting not to fold is not sufficient to own hormuz. But what if, it is enough to get a breather?

Theory of victory vs Theory to survive and build resilience could be different no?

[V. Anand | வெ. ஆனந்த் @iam_anandv]

@policytensor As long as elites win, the cost to laity can be justified. Look peasants all the loot we are getting, and you get your crumbs too. But when you don't get the crumbs, and get body bags and less potatoes and street executions?

Perhaps Iranian theory of victory is not that bad?