I’ll be real with you.
This has been one of the most difficult cycle’s of all time.
A lot of it isn’t making any sense.
But behind closed doors, something much bigger is unfolding.
So, here’s an insight into what I think is really happening this cycle.
And also my expectations for the end of 2025 and 2026.
Let start with this year so far.
It hasn’t been the euphoric breakout most expected.
It’s been the sideways year.
Everyone thought this was going to be the classic post-halving run - the final explosive phase of the 4-year cycle.
Instead?
We’ve been stuck in what feels like endless sideways chop.
OGs taking profit.
Retail walking away.
And the same crowd that screamed “to the moon” now convinced crypto is finished.
That’s not coincidence.
If I were a major institution finally stepping into this space, what would I want?
- Control.
- Predictability.
- Time to build positions quietly without chaos.
And that’s exactly what’s been engineered.
The truth is - the narrative is being weaponized against the public.
All the things everyone “knows” - the halving cycle, the lag behind equities, the sell pressure -they’re being used to steer behavior.
Ask yourself this:
Bitcoin’s been hovering above $100k for months now.
Historic levels of selling from early wallets… and yet, only a 19% drawdown from the highs?
A very natural correction for any part Bull Run.
Does that sound like weakness? Or restructuring?
Tops don’t give you months to think.
They rip. They vanish.
You don’t get time to exit politely above $100k.
What we’re seeing looks far more like an intentional rotation - a handoff from early holders to deep-pocketed buyers who plan to be here for decades.
Institutions don’t chase breakouts.
They build foundations.
They turn resistance into long-term support - and defend it once they’ve finished accumulating.
If that’s what’s happening right now, it explains everything:
Prolonged consolidation.
Heavy but absorbed sell pressure.
Flat sentiment.
Record inflows from “quiet” money.
It’s not distribution at the top.
It’s preparation for the next controlled expansion.
And once this phase is done, supply will be so tightly held that the next run could unfold faster - and last longer - than anyone expects.
This isn’t hopium. It’s pattern recognition.
The data points line up. The psychology lines up.
Institutions aren’t here to buy the top.
They’re here to own the base.
They’re taking time, while most of retail gives up out of boredom or disbelief.
So call it what you want - conspiracy, theory, whatever.
But when you strip away the noise, the logic is simple:
Crypto isn’t dying.
It’s being restructured.
And those who can see that, and stay patient through the quiet…
Will be the ones celebrating when this phase flips.
There's not much to worry.
The only thing you should do, as an holder of your assets, is to be patient.
The 4-year cycle theory is dead.
#Bitcoin would never be $100k+ if it wasn't without the ETFs.
That means, that we're still in the same shape.
#Bitcoin breaking up from here, $ETH breaking ATH and we're off towards a strong #Altcoin run.
Be patient.
If you want to make money trading
Get off the 1min charts bro
The smaller the timeframe, the more it’s manipulated
Switch to 1D, 4H and 1H for analysis and 15min for entries and see what happens
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🟢 *"Markets don't reward speed. They reward timing. Jumping in too early on a breakout may lead to a false move, but waiting for confirmation and entering at the right time—like entering after a pullback in a strong trend—could lead to a more profitable trade."*
This approach ensures you're not just rushing to get in, but positioning yourself to capture the bigger move with confidence.
What’s your approach to waiting for confirmation?
"You can be a brilliant analyst and still lose—because the real game is execution. We see it all over X: sharp insights, poor results. Analysis builds context, but execution builds equity. Simplicity sharpens action. Master the basics, and the profits follow."
Don't memorize patterns, candlesticks etc
If you want to get better in this game ask yourself:
What are traders on the sideline thinking?
Where will other traders get trapped?
Where is the path of least resistance?
Where will Amateurs traders enter?
Where will losers get lost?
Regular physical exercise is a sign of mindfulness, willpower, and a deep understanding of its importance for health, mood improvement, and activity. Therefore, without it, there is no success in activity, and hence in life in general.
A cheetah doesn’t chase every prey—it waits for the perfect moment, striking with precision and conserving energy.
A shark keeps moving, adapting to the currents, never rushing but always ready to attack when the time is right.
A crocodile stays patient, lurking beneath the surface, waiting for the best opportunity to snap with maximum efficiency.
Be like these animals in trading—patient, selective, and strategic. Chase recklessly, and you’ll burn out. But if you focus on survival, the profits will come naturally.
funny how time works.
look back at 2023
feels like yesterday.
look ahead to 2027
feels like a lifetime away.
but it’s the same distance.
same 24 months.
your brain plays tricks on you.
when you look back,
you see how fast it all went.
when you look forward,
you convince yourself it’s far.
you hate waiting.
but two years will pass whether you grind or not.
that’s why most people waste time.
they underestimate how quickly the present becomes the past.
then one day,
you wake up realising you ran out of “later.”
Patience and Discipline will get you very far.
In this market, you don't need to be an insane trader or make super risky bets.
You generally get a good 1-2 years to buy at a relatively good price.
Then you wait it out for another ~2 years and sell when people get overexcited. This is just when investing in $BTC. Alts obviously take more effort and managing, especially this cycle.
Much easier said than done of course, because there's a lot of roadbloacks in that journey. But this passive approach does generally make you outperform the majority of people.