🇺🇸🇮🇷 Is Trump's "status quo" on Iran an exit... or the on-ramp back to war?
Andrew Day, senior editor at The American Conservative, says the blockade and sanctions plan sold to Trump as a middle path can’t hold still, because it’s built to squeeze Iran harder every week and Tehran won’t sit through that forever.
He adds that Iran has about 1,700 ballistic missiles and builds roughly 50 a month, more than the US makes in Patriot interceptors in a year.
Clint Russell, host of Liberty Lockdown, argues there’s no clean exit left, since Iran now has to answer any strike and Israel can restart the war by moving first.
They also get into whether one big strike could let Washington walk away and what Democrats do with their new majority.
Every week the squeeze continues without a deal, the odds of Iran or Israel forcing the next round go up, and America’s interceptor stock isn’t keeping pace.
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 What does Iran actually want? The blockade lifted, its oil sold and about $8 billion unfrozen
Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat who helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal, says there is no deal yet and Tehran's "seven or nothing" line is posturing.
Strip it down and Iran needs three things, which are the naval blockade gone, its oil back on the market, and roughly $8 to $10 billion of its frozen money released.
He doesn't expect Washington to restart the war, but he warns the blockade is hurting Iran badly enough that Tehran will escalate on its own if it stays.
Alan also rejects the idea that Iran came out stronger.
He says its economy is "in the ICU," a Hormuz toll would cover a fraction of what it needs, and the Guards now in charge don't know how to run an economy.
Which means both sides have a reason to settle, and the blockade is the first thing that has to move.
@AlanEyre1@WeTheBrandon
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