Polyguana

the prediction market super app

[Internet Child @0xinternetchild]

Every single US-Iran peace announcement was made when oil >$100.

this is the TACO ZONE

just look at the timeline :

- March 10 : Oil > $100 -> Trump says the war will end soon
- Mar 23 : Oil = $110 -> Trump postpones strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure
- Apr 7 : Oil = $109 -> Trump accepts a ceasefire
- May 18: Oil $111 -> Trump postpones the planned attack and says there is a “very good chance” of a deal
- July 26: Oil > $100 -> Trump pauses the bombing campaign for diplomacy

this is a powerful indicator if you are trading US-Iran prediction markets.

You can see that Trump's last TACO successfully pushed us out of the zone, and now that we are safely out of it, escalation is resuming with new strikes on Iran.

Basically.
when outside the TACO zone, expect more war.
When inside , expect peace.

[ZEIT @ZEITFinance]

https://t.co/DyPPYDLAR5

[Polyguana @polyguana]

@GavMcCracken lets gooo

[Internet Child @0xinternetchild]

if you wanna check by yourself

polyguana graph
https://t.co/WVQq9HS1Vg

@polymarket Strait of Hormuz traffic
https://t.co/4e7sPsgjAw

@HyperliquidX WTI oil futures
https://t.co/FEfNbORz2x

[Internet Child @0xinternetchild]

Polymarket traders are frontrunning the $200B commodity trading industry

they know when the Strait of Hormuz will open or close before Oil Quants do.

I found this chart on Polyguana comparing the price of Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" contracts to "WTI oil future" contracts.

Two things are immediately apparent :

1 - the two are highly correlated (as expected)
2 - the Polymarket charts moves *BEFORE* the oil price chart

this is unbelievable.

For context commodity trading industry generates around $200B profit a year.

They have
- entire teams of quants
- Satellite imagery and other proprietary intelligence
- Privileged access to news feeds
- network of local informants and insiders

Their single mission lately was predicting the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the single most important variable affecting oil prices.

Yet they were consistently outdone by lone forecasters trading on a $6M volume market.

It shows that traditional finance is sleeping hard on prediction markets.

If you are a sharp Polymarket trader with a public profile, expect the get fat offers from high end Quant firms when they finally wake up.