ghøst

I count what others feel | Prediction market portfolios | Sport·Math·Edge | Models, not magic | @CoinMarketCap

[ghøst @decenterghost]

Prediction markets have a problem few people talk about

On smaller events the books are thin

@magicmarkets One of the best builders on Polymarket, 5th by 30d volume

>> 25+ liquidity providers
>> One order book
>> One of the best prices, from whichever source has it
>> Zero commission

NFL. NBA. MLB. Premier League. Champions League. Mexico Liga. NCAA. ATP. Esports

Thin books were never a prediction market problem

They were a fragmentation problem

Capital goes where the best price is at size

Now its all in one book

[ghøst @decenterghost]

The search on @LeadpoetAI returned 10 targeted companies and contacts for a prediction market analytics ICP

Instead of generic industry filters it surfaced teams building data products, researching liquidity, and executing quant strategies

One result surfaced Chang Xie at InfiniteQuant with prior experience as Portfolio Manager at WeQuant

Granular role mapping beats broad company lists when targeting real decision makers

[Leadpoet @LeadpoetAI]

We just killed cold outreach.

Introducing Leadpoet: the AI sales agent that finds buyers who need you now, writes personalized outreach, and follows up on LinkedIn and email.

Used by Dropbox, OnePatch (YC26), Muttdata.

Comment “Poet” for 100 free lead credits to find qualified buyers.

[ghøst @decenterghost]

DraftKings already answered that

Look at their own stack

They own the frontend, the exchange and the market maker running risk management and pricing

European operators ran this playbook years ago with Betfair and Smarkets

The issue isnt fake prices

Its that the operator uses sharp exchange flow as a free pricing oracle to protect the sportsbook it prices 95% in house while internal market makers cherry pick the retail flow

[TEB @tebrabbit]

draftkings saying their prediction exchange hit #3 in us volume last week (~$1b).

they already have the users so that tracks. the interesting bit is whether the prices stay honest when the same shop also runs the sportsbook.

[ghøst @decenterghost]

Millions of views do not mean you reached the right audience

In EP36 of @thegodmodepod Gannon Breslin breaks down content distribution and building a startup on a Navy ship with shared Starlink from midnight to 3 AM

Real building is messy execution under terrible conditions

Watch EP36: https://t.co/S3cOtiLvfY

[ghøst @decenterghost]

@FireBrightX When 600 tools exist, software gives zero moat

The edge is unique orderflow, sub 100ms execution, or models AI cannot replicate

Tools are just pipes. Edge is what runs through them

[ghøst @decenterghost]

Where do you find the best prediction-market trading tools and build a stack that fits your style?

> Platforms
> Wallet trackers
> Trading terminals
> Scanners
> Analytics
> Execution tools

611 projects. 18 categories. One map

Stop hunting tools one X post at a time

Bookmark this. @PredMarketWiki

[ghøst @decenterghost]

@datadashxyz You have a very good tool, I use it

[Korens @0xKorens]

67¢ on Polymarket doesn't necessarily mean you're paying 67¢

I checked a real tennis market. After taker fees, the effective price was 68.1¢

MagicMarkets showed 64.5¢ for the same outcome. Here's what that meant for a $100 trade

I compared Michele Ribecai vs Jacopo Vasami using Thumper

For Michele Ribecai:
-> Polymarket payout: $147
-> MagicMarkets payout: $155
-> $8 more on MagicMarkets

Same match. Same bet size. Different prices

Thumper is a free Chrome extension by @MagicMarkets that shows MagicMarkets prices alongside Polymarket

MagicMarkets offers zero commission, but isn't always cheaper

Don't just check the displayed odds. Check the actual payout

[ghøst @decenterghost]

I turned the @testdriveso car from a cartoon mascot into a realistic sports car with @Kling_ai in just 5 seconds

The transformation was the best part. The orange design carried through, and the final car looked detailed and cinematic

For such a short clip, Kling managed to make the change feel like an actual transformation rather than a simple cut to another image

One thing I'd like more control over is how much of the original character survives the change

Sometimes I want a full redesign, other times I want the mascot to stay recognizable

[ghøst @decenterghost]

@PredMarketWiki Structuring is extremely important, thanks!

[ghøst @decenterghost]

AI-generated code can work exactly as written and still do the wrong thing

I ran into this while building an AI agent: there was a contradiction in its logic that I hadn't caught myself. @prelint_ai helped me find it by checking the implementation against the intended product behavior

That's the part I care about. As agents take on more of the building, the risk isn't just broken code. It's shipping something that works technically but contradicts what the product is supposed to do

[ghøst @decenterghost]

@DmitriyUngarov @prophetthedog i see, thats a very interesting model

[ghøst @decenterghost]

Your community makes one call. Every voter gets an NFT

@prophetthedog’s APE OR FADE turns a YES/NO vote into a collective onchain prediction

Sign in with X or connect a wallet, then vote YES (APE) or NO (FADE)

Voting is free, and Prophet creates a wallet if you need one

If the community gets it right, randomly selected voters win rewards

If it misses, you can burn your NFT in the Graveyard for a free Moonshot spin. Prizes are possible, not guaranteed

Live question:

Will PaperTrade TVL be above $35M on Tuesday, Oct 27?

Cast your vote: https://t.co/iTl5jeC4iR

[ih8y @DmitriyUngarov]

Easiest money on table if you knows what is Predictions.

So you can turn someone else’s rug into your own upside.

Predict Papertrade TVL: $100M —> $36M

On Prophet you can bet it stays ≤ $35M by Tuesday and get an NFT that shows your side.

https://t.co/1UIJZgiYjy

> If you’re right → yummy airdrop in $PROPHET

> If you’re wrong → burn the NFT and spin the wheel for some tokens anyway.

Downside is basically zero, upside either way.

[ghøst @decenterghost]

@testdriveso @polyfactual I was mainly talking about the highlighted block

[ghøst @decenterghost]

After using @testdriveso across multiple campaigns, I can check individual post scores, performance bonuses and whether my review meets the brief

That covers the performance of each post, but I’d also like a clearer picture of my position in the creator community

One feature I’d add is a shareable Creator Card, similar to Stitch3’s scorecard. It could show your rank, strongest category, influence and top connections in one place

Stitch3’s card makes your position in its ecosystem visible at a glance

TestDrive could do the same for its creators, turning campaign activity into something easier to understand and share

[ghøst @decenterghost]

I set up my first search on @LeadpoetAI for prediction market traders and analytics teams

Instead of filtering by job title alone, I defined the audience, described the product they might need and added four buying signals: interest in analytics tools, building trading dashboards, hiring quant researchers, and discussing data or liquidity problems

The request is now sourcing 10 companies. The real test is whether those signals lead to relevant prospects, not just people who fit the profile on paper

[Leadpoet @LeadpoetAI]

We just killed cold outreach.

Introducing Leadpoet: the AI sales agent that finds buyers who need you now, writes personalized outreach, and follows up on LinkedIn and email.

Used by Dropbox, OnePatch (YC26), Muttdata.

Comment “Poet” for 100 free lead credits to find qualified buyers.

[ghøst @decenterghost]

@0xTengen_ @magicmarkets its not really my kind of sport, but I think Merab is underrated

[ghøst @decenterghost]

UFC 333 tomorrow, Merab vs Yan

Heres how Thumper from @magicmarkets works

Same fight, three prices

>> 59c on the Polymarket ticket
>> 60.2c with fee
>> 58.5c on the MagicMarkets

For a trader the real gap is 1.7c: break even drops from 60.2% to 58.5% and $100 buys about 4.8 more shares

Cheaper entry is edge you dont need to prediction

[TEB @tebrabbit]

1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position
it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵

[ghøst @decenterghost]

@haciyatmaz @magicmarkets over the long run, this makes a big difference in profit

[ghøst @decenterghost]

@AviiWeb3 @magicmarkets i also really like it

[ghøst @decenterghost]

Tried @excalidraw and went straight to drawing

The interface is simple, and Ctrl+Z works for undoing mistakes

Two small UX issues: the language switches based on your IP without asking, and I couldn't find a visible Undo button

Let users choose their language on entry and make Undo easier to spot