PM Wisdom

Prediction Markets

Independent, community-curated knowledge base for prediction market platforms, terminals, tools, and infrastructure

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

BTC 15-minute markets move fast.

Our latest featured project, @Cotes_AI's SpectralEdge, re-reads every Kalshi BTC 15-minute market every five seconds. It fires YES or NO only when confidence and estimated edge clear its thresholds.

The same feed is available through an API.

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@Autonomous_Chad @polyguana 4x on Worlds is no fluke 🎮

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@coleodds Bigger than crypto now 🌍

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

One inflation report just flipped the Fed debate.

October prices came in hotter than expected, with core inflation running above forecasts for a third straight month. It was the last CPI print before the December 8–9 meeting, and traders wasted no time.

On Polymarket, a quarter point hike is now the clear base case at 85.5%. The bigger story is the tail: a half point hike went from under 1% on Monday to nearly 12% within an hour of the release.

A pause, once a real option at 31.5% last week, now sits at just 3%. The market has stopped asking if the Fed hikes and started asking how hard.

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@Ianbtc777 Here for the unpopular call

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@leshuuuk Top leaderboard is mostly survivorship bias

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@polysuccubus Copying PnL is not copying execution

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

Learn more on the Wiki

https://t.co/KmcQii4ncG

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki

ArbitradePro

@thearbitradepro offers automated tools for prediction-market trading and arbitrage.

Its web platform is designed to help traders identify and manage opportunities. ⚡️

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@kalshi_business Rooting for her bet to lose ❄️

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@kiira7094 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport Big money at a Challenger 🎾

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

Anthropic launched the roadshow for its IPO this morning. The company set a $70 to $78 price range and applied to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.

The market on whether it IPOs by November 20 jumped to 91.5% at 7 a.m. ET and was at 89% at 9:29 a.m. That's up from 41% late on November 7 and a 34.5% low on November 6.

It resolves Yes if Anthropic shares are listed and open for trading by 11:59 p.m. ET on November 20. CNBC, citing people familiar with the plans, said the company aims to price on November 18 and trade on November 19.

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

Learn more on the Wiki

https://t.co/gEHCL0XjrK

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki

Polyfactual

@polyfactual builds AI-powered research and market intelligence for prediction markets.

Explore market analysis, live news and tools for builders across the ecosystem. 🔎

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@Autonomous_Chad Wall Street vs Wall Street

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Kalshi's founder, @mansourtarek_, is facing 30 years in prison in Utah.

This sounds insane for the "crime" of offering prediction markets but it's real.

The State of Utah already charged him and ordered him to appear in court for:

- 12 felonies for promoting online gambling
- 1 felony for pattern of unlawful activity
- misdemeanor for general gambling promotion

The whole case is ridiculous.

An undercover agent used a VPN to place 12 trades worth $114 on Kalshi ( the 12 felonies) from inside Utah, after the platform had been banned there.

How do they establish Tarek's responsibility ? They cite an interview about how much control he has over Kalshi.

I'd say his chance of actually going to prison is no more than ~10%

The case is very weak and the feds are already moving to stop prosecution.

But with the current political climate and the Dems back in control, who knows ? There might be a risk.

[FatMbappe @TheFatMbappe]

Everyone thinks Democrats will kill prediction markets.
They can't. Not before 2029.

The real threat already hit last week, and it's not Congress.

Kalshi's response tells you who survives.

Full breakdown 👇

tl;dr timeline

– Polymarket created the category. Kalshi won it, with ~80% of volume today

– both tried crypto, both fumbled it

– both ended up living off sports

– sports made enemies, and they're now fighting in court

– Dems can't ban it before 2029, but 2029 is the real deadline

– the winner is whoever becomes Wall Street infrastructure first

Lesson learned: sports pays the bills. It won't protect you.

Full details:

– How did Kalshi win?

Polymarket owned ~95% of the market in 2024. Kalshi let them take the spotlight and the heat, and did the boring work: regulation, execution, the US consumer.

Kalshi passed Polymarket in October 2025 and has held 75–80%+ ever since.

– What was Polymarket's mistake?

They had to choose: double down on crypto or chase Kalshi in the US.

They chose the US and bought QCEX for $112M. Which was terrible tech. Supposedly running on MongoDB.

Meanwhile, the crypto crowd got the highest-in-the-market fees on nearly every market, a bunch of outages including a security halt last month, and a constant $POLY token shill that never materialized.

They tried to serve both crowds and lost ground with both.

– Kalshi's crypto detour

Kalshi tokenized every market on Solana in December 2025 and put $2M into grants.

No PMF. Solana crowd wants memecoin upside, not a regulated binary you can't pump. By summer, Phantom had swapped Kalshi out.

So Kalshi built what crypto traders actually want: perps. They did $5.5B in the first two weeks, and now there are stock perps too.

– Why everyone ended up in sports

Sports is ~80% of Kalshi's volume.

Nobody woke up wanting to be a sportsbook. But if you earn fees on volume, you need emotional events every weekend. That's sports.

The problem is that tribes and sportsbooks spent decades lobbying states one by one. Prediction markets went around all of it through the CFTC.

– The storm is already here

In September, the 9th Circuit said California tribes would likely win against Kalshi. Last week a judge made it binding.

The CFTC answered by telling exchanges to stop geofencing within 30 days. Meanwhile, Utah is prosecuting Kalshi criminally.

Courts say block it. The regulator says don't. This ends at the Supreme Court.

– What Democrats actually change

Dems get 54 Senate seats and 250+ House seats. But Trump holds the veto and the CFTC until 2029, so no ban becomes law this term.

What Dems get is hearings, subpoenas (Don Jr. advises Kalshi AND sits on Polymarket's board) and votes on CFTC nominees.

And the ban bills are bipartisan. This isn't left vs. right. It's gaming states and tribes vs. the CFTC.

The real deadline is 2028–29, from a Supreme Court ruling or a new CFTC chair. DraftKings is already modeling sports contracts ending in July 2028. In that scenario, they make 80% less per customer.

I don't think banning them is right. They found a more efficient market and should be allowed to compete. But tribes and states have real claims. This needs a deal, not a war.

– Where the moat is

Sports is the revenue. It isn't the moat.

The moat is becoming infrastructure Wall Street can't live without before 2028.

It's already starting:

– Cantor doing block trades on Kalshi

– IBKR and Clear Street integrations

– institutional volume up 800% in six months

– ICE putting $1.6B into Polymarket

Event contracts plus perps is the most precise instrument ever built for expressing a thesis in size, as a bet or as a hedge. And that's just the beginning.

My prediction:

The platform that goes all-in on institutional event infrastructure now gets the right allies for the storm: exchanges, banks, and asset managers. That's the lobby that actually wins in DC.

Structured assets, ETF's, Earnings Hedges, Insurances

It comes out the other side as core financial plumbing, like stock trading, something nobody challenges anymore.

The one that stays a sportsbook with extra steps gets regulated like one.

Who gets there first: Kalshi, Polymarket, or someone who hasn't shown up yet?

EP 10.5 Special: Before the storm

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

The platform that goes all-in on institutional event infrastructure now gets the right allies for the storm: exchanges, banks, and asset managers.

That's the lobby that actually wins in DC.

Structured assets, ETF's, Earnings Hedges, Insurances

[FatMbappe @TheFatMbappe]

Everyone thinks Democrats will kill prediction markets.
They can't. Not before 2029.

The real threat already hit last week, and it's not Congress.

Kalshi's response tells you who survives.

Full breakdown 👇

tl;dr timeline

– Polymarket created the category. Kalshi won it, with ~80% of volume today

– both tried crypto, both fumbled it

– both ended up living off sports

– sports made enemies, and they're now fighting in court

– Dems can't ban it before 2029, but 2029 is the real deadline

– the winner is whoever becomes Wall Street infrastructure first

Lesson learned: sports pays the bills. It won't protect you.

Full details:

– How did Kalshi win?

Polymarket owned ~95% of the market in 2024. Kalshi let them take the spotlight and the heat, and did the boring work: regulation, execution, the US consumer.

Kalshi passed Polymarket in October 2025 and has held 75–80%+ ever since.

– What was Polymarket's mistake?

They had to choose: double down on crypto or chase Kalshi in the US.

They chose the US and bought QCEX for $112M. Which was terrible tech. Supposedly running on MongoDB.

Meanwhile, the crypto crowd got the highest-in-the-market fees on nearly every market, a bunch of outages including a security halt last month, and a constant $POLY token shill that never materialized.

They tried to serve both crowds and lost ground with both.

– Kalshi's crypto detour

Kalshi tokenized every market on Solana in December 2025 and put $2M into grants.

No PMF. Solana crowd wants memecoin upside, not a regulated binary you can't pump. By summer, Phantom had swapped Kalshi out.

So Kalshi built what crypto traders actually want: perps. They did $5.5B in the first two weeks, and now there are stock perps too.

– Why everyone ended up in sports

Sports is ~80% of Kalshi's volume.

Nobody woke up wanting to be a sportsbook. But if you earn fees on volume, you need emotional events every weekend. That's sports.

The problem is that tribes and sportsbooks spent decades lobbying states one by one. Prediction markets went around all of it through the CFTC.

– The storm is already here

In September, the 9th Circuit said California tribes would likely win against Kalshi. Last week a judge made it binding.

The CFTC answered by telling exchanges to stop geofencing within 30 days. Meanwhile, Utah is prosecuting Kalshi criminally.

Courts say block it. The regulator says don't. This ends at the Supreme Court.

– What Democrats actually change

Dems get 54 Senate seats and 250+ House seats. But Trump holds the veto and the CFTC until 2029, so no ban becomes law this term.

What Dems get is hearings, subpoenas (Don Jr. advises Kalshi AND sits on Polymarket's board) and votes on CFTC nominees.

And the ban bills are bipartisan. This isn't left vs. right. It's gaming states and tribes vs. the CFTC.

The real deadline is 2028–29, from a Supreme Court ruling or a new CFTC chair. DraftKings is already modeling sports contracts ending in July 2028. In that scenario, they make 80% less per customer.

I don't think banning them is right. They found a more efficient market and should be allowed to compete. But tribes and states have real claims. This needs a deal, not a war.

– Where the moat is

Sports is the revenue. It isn't the moat.

The moat is becoming infrastructure Wall Street can't live without before 2028.

It's already starting:

– Cantor doing block trades on Kalshi

– IBKR and Clear Street integrations

– institutional volume up 800% in six months

– ICE putting $1.6B into Polymarket

Event contracts plus perps is the most precise instrument ever built for expressing a thesis in size, as a bet or as a hedge. And that's just the beginning.

My prediction:

The platform that goes all-in on institutional event infrastructure now gets the right allies for the storm: exchanges, banks, and asset managers. That's the lobby that actually wins in DC.

Structured assets, ETF's, Earnings Hedges, Insurances

It comes out the other side as core financial plumbing, like stock trading, something nobody challenges anymore.

The one that stays a sportsbook with extra steps gets regulated like one.

Who gets there first: Kalshi, Polymarket, or someone who hasn't shown up yet?

EP 10.5 Special: Before the storm

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@SheikhSilicon @Polymarket 16% shows the market expects continuity

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

Kai Cenat started his five-game GTA marathon on Nov 5. By this morning he had already cleared GTA III, Vice City and San Andreas and moved into GTA IV.

Traders noticed. The contract for finishing by Nov 11 opened around 18% on Nov 6. As the stream kept clearing titles, that Yes price climbed through the weekend and sits at 90% as of midday Monday.

The point is simple: once the first three games were done ahead of schedule, the market stopped pricing a late finish and started pricing him making Wednesday night.

[PM Wisdom @PredMarketWiki]

@coleodds Roll mechanics make or break continuous indices