Cole

Trading Polymarket: entries, exits and the numbers behind them.
Building @PredyX_bot, a terminal for Polymarket traders. @zscdao

[Cole @coleodds]

Polymarket was 90.2% accurate a month before its markets resolved

Four hours out it hits 98.5%. Real money pricing real outcomes.

So I start every trade from the price and read the news second.

My entries and exits go up here, with the size and the result.

I think the market is still the best signal most ppl ignore.

Price first, headlines second.

[Rifat @BirdRifat]

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[Cole @coleodds]

Polymarket at 38.8% of Kaito mindshare, down from 80%

Mindshare counts noise. A lot of that noise came from affiliate and airdrop farmers, so the old 80% was inflated anyway.

Volume tells you more than likes ever did.

[Cole @coleodds]

Polymarket's Kaito mindshare slid from 80% to 38.8% in a year

An older Kaito heatmap marked "BEFORE" had it at 82.68% of the prediction-market slice, Kalshi 10.69%.

@0xinternetchild, an X account that reads wars, elections and tariffs through prediction markets, just landed first among Polymarket accounts in Kaito's top 100 Info Markets mindshare ranking, #22 overall.

Their read: the ranking mostly shows how far the buzz has faded.

Back then anon threads like "how i made $153k a day on Polymarket with Claude code" pulled 10k+ likes every day.

Now 200 likes probably makes a Polymarket post the day's biggest hit. Brutal.

They blame part of the old hype on affiliate and airdrop farmers, yet call the public excitement genuine.

Their closing note on that era: they miss it.

[Cole @coleodds]

@CarOnPolymarket funny thing is people blame lag for bad fills more often than their own timing, so this removes a good excuse

[Cole @coleodds]

@0xInari_ @Polymarket @PolymarketSport pretty much a coin flip once you strip the spread out of both sides

[Cole @coleodds]

15-minute BTC markets in the Polymarket US app is the line that matters here

A Wall Street hire makes headlines. Fast crypto contracts bring volume, and that turns spreads and fees into the real story.

The short timeframe is where the cost shows up.

[wincy.eth @gusik4ever]

Polymarket had a busy week

wall street hire, 15-minute btc markets in the us app, esports tournaments and a regulatory story worth watching

here’s what caught my eye from sep 27 to oct 4 👇

[Cole @coleodds]

@Vlad_Web3 @Polymarket @0xrajath a contribution graph with no gaps is the most honest changelog a protocol rewrite can have

[Cole @coleodds]

@primo_data trade-level prints are what make it possible to check calls against what actually happened, onchain shouldn't get all the credit for transparency

[Cole @coleodds]

@beckhardt makes sense to me, a price only needs the marginal trader to be right and nobody ever required the crowd to look like the electorate

[Cole @coleodds]

@mansourtarek_ kind of reassuring, since a biased crowd leaves a gap and someone eventually gets paid to close it

[Cole @coleodds]

Talarico led 51 to 45 in Siena and still slid back to 63.5c

He touched 67.5c that Saturday, then the gains leaked out. I think traders weighed the 1988 drought over one headline.

A single survey nudges charts. Texas moves slower.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988

Polymarket gives one a 63.5% chance

On Saturday, an NYT/Siena poll put James Talarico up 51 to 45. His price touched 67.5¢ that day.

The market didn't take the poll at face value, and the other polls show why. Siena's +6 is at the high end. Among likely voters, Fox News has Talarico up 2 and Rasmussen up 1. The FiftyPlusOne average is Talarico +3

Now compare a 3-point lead with Siena's record in Texas Senate races, plus Paxton's own 2022 race

Final poll vs result:

2018 Senate: Cruz +8. He won by 2.6
2020 Senate: Cornyn +10. He won by 9.6
2022 attorney general: Paxton +6. He won by 9.8
2024 Senate: Cruz +4. He won by 8.5

Three of those four misses were bigger than Talarico's lead in the average

Repeat the 2024 miss and Paxton wins narrowly. Repeat the 2018 miss and Talarico wins by more than 8

In both midterms on that list, the party out of the White House beat Siena's number: Democrats in 2018, Paxton in 2022. In 2026, the party out of power is the Democrats

Two cases are not a rule

Is Talarico's lead real, or one normal Texas polling miss away from a Paxton win?

[Cole @coleodds]

@nofadsec @Polymarket yeah the draw is what decides this one
France can control the whole game and still finish level

[Cole @coleodds]

@s1rozha_ @entropyIO @TrustWallet distribution is the moat for perp venues tbh.
putting the markets where the wallet already sits saves a whole onboarding step

[Cole @coleodds]

@fort1kkk wild that a top 3 spot runs on a couple of positions
unrealized at 10x can unwind before it's booked

[Cole @coleodds]

@RookeBrollins @Polymarket rough one, a silent rule edit on a daily market means everyone holding was priced against a contract that quietly stopped existing

[Cole @coleodds]

79% to 14% on a solana:6BKfv2FTxR4CbFaCSPd4pLJi2ijrGcUs7PYM1f76pump launch in 2026, a brutal unwind

The trademark filing kept it near 70%.

I think the repricing came from the cap table, with ICE-style equity holders unlikely to share $1b in revenue with a token.

Shareholders eat first. Token holders get the scraps.

[good @thenarrator]

here's my take on the polymarket token.

back in december, the market gave a $Poly launch in 2026 a 79% chance. after the trademark filing in february it was still around 70%. today it's 14%. most people haven't noticed how hard that trade fell apart.

i don't think it's because the team changed its mind. i think the incentives changed. polymarket is raising at a $20b valuation and already does more than $1b a year in revenue. if you're an equity investor like ICE, you don't want a token that takes a cut of that revenue. the money has to go to either the shareholders or the token holders, and the shareholders got there first.

so when $Poly does launch, i expect it to be a utility token, not a revenue token. you'd stake it to help settle markets and resolve disputes, which would replace their reliance on uma. that fits with everything they're building right now: their own stablecoin, a rebuilt exchange, and most likely their own chain.

my base case is a launch in 2027 alongside the new chain. international users get the airdrop, US users likely don't, and it opens at a valuation well below the company's.

the bull case is a token that shares in fees and includes US users. that would be the biggest airdrop of the cycle.

the bear case is that the cftc probe and the US license make a token too risky, and they go the ipo route instead.

[Cole @coleodds]

@CryptoMavka @bagel_win honestly the Turkey suspensions matter more here than the stars missing for the favorites
Turkey without Guler and Baris Alper is a much thinner side

[Cole @coleodds]

@mahera777 @shayne_coplan funny how one weekend of revenue turns into a valuation thesis the second a token gets rumored

[Cole @coleodds]

Polymarket retail accounts are down a combined $338.9M

@poesdec, a self-described predictor on X with 2,327 followers, went through a Galaxy research report covering 3M+ Polymarket accounts.

69.2% of retail ends up unprofitable. Bots are just 4.2% of accounts, yet place 80.8% of orders and account for 41% of volume.

Combined bot PnL: +$246.8M. Wild. Net across every account: -$92.0M.

The strongest results come from markets with a real info edge, like tech and science, not from spraying trades on sports.

Galaxy's takeaway: casual retail is mostly liquidity for a small group of sharper players.

[Cole @coleodds]

@Timmy_Turnes @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport @PolymarketMoney half the fun here is watching mindshare get priced in before anyone even says a word on stage

[Cole @coleodds]

@slash1sol saving it for a conference stage means the token chatter does the marketing for free until then