JSP

Energy, Business, Politics, and Technology

[JSP @iamjars]

ในขณะที่ทั่วโลกพยายามผลักดันการใช้พลังงานหมุนเวียน และลดการพึ่งพาพลังงานจากเชื้อเพลิงฟอสซิล ประเทศเราเองก็ได้ออกแผนพลังงาน 20ปีขึ้นมา แต่พบว่า การพึ่งพาก๊าซธรรมชาติในแผนนั้น ไม่ได้ลดลงเลย เป็นคำถามที่คาใจผมมาตั้งแต่ต้นปีตอนที่ได้เห็น��่างแผน PDP ครั้งแรกเมื่อเดือนมกราคม

[John Quakes @quakes99]

🚨ICYMI #Uranium peeps!🎆😴 Cameco's Grant Isaac told U on the company's 31 July Q2 Results Conference Call precisely why we are on the cusp of a coming Uranium bull market for the history books!⚛️⛏️🐂🚀🌜 On the call Grant said:

"The uranium side of the market continues to move from strength to strength. Just in general, across the industry, I think what the most notable point to make is we are still not at replacement rate demand across the industry. We still don't have utilities coming forward and collectively buying at a volume that replaces what they consume under existing contracts! And yet we find ourselves back into a mid-90s long-term uranium price on its way to 3 digits likely. And that's in the absence of replacement rate demand. And as I remind folks, we've never been at this kind of uranium price [$97] on the front end of a uranium contracting cycle. We've only ever found ourselves at these prices on the back end."

He reminded us of 2 important factors:

1. Nuclear utilities normally sign a series of 4 different contracts to order reactor fuel🧾✍️⚛️🏭 starting with the fabrication of fuel assemblies filled with enriched uranium to be loaded into reactors 1⃣ then working backwards thru SWU for enrichment of UF6 2⃣ and Conversion of drummed U3O8 into UF6 3⃣ then finally, last of all, they sign contracts with miners to supply the required drums of mined U3O8 yellow cake 4⃣ the last link in the contracts chain.🛢️☢️🔗

⚠️ Prices for Conversion and enrichment SWU have already skyrocketed 200-300% to all-time highs, indicating that utilities have been squeezing the conversion & enrichment markets🗜️🛒 signing a large volume of new service contracts, but they haven't yet signed sufficient contracts for the mined U3O8 that must be converted & enriched!🚨

This is most evident by looking at long-term contracting volumes.📊 For the past 13 years, utilities on average globally have only been signing uranium supply contracts for little more than half the volume of uranium they have been consuming in reactors each year! Contracting has been far below what is referred to as "replacement rate" due to utilities being focused primarily on securing the most important contracts for fabrication, SWU and Conversion, putting off signing contracts for mined U3O8 until the last minute.😴 Hence, there is a massive wave of contracting volume yet to arrive at mined U3O8, the last domino to fall in the contracts chain.🌊🛢️☢️🛒

2. Grant also reminded investors on the call that the published long-term Uranium price has now reached a new all-time record high of $97/lb, higher than the $95 peak during the last 2006/2007 bull market, but replacement rate contracting by utilities hasn't even started yet! 😲

The coming "replacement rate" contracting cycle is going to start off at a higher long-term price than was ever achieved at the back-end months of the last uranium bull market!

Once fuel buyers jump back into signing a high volume of new U3O8 supply contracts, the Long-term and Spot prices will go far far higher from today's already elevated base prices!⏫💲

In the first 3 years of the last Uranium bull market the long-term price rose from ~$25 in 2005 to a peak of $95 in 2007/2008, a near 4-fold price jump. Meanwhile, Spot U3O8 went from ~$20 to a peak of $136 in 2007, a near 7-fold price run!

Veteran uranium sector analysts & investors on the call understood exactly what Grant was saying to them.👍 Now U know why so many of us U sector veterans are so excited about what's yet to come when the long delayed full-on replacement rate contracting cycle gets underway!🚀🌜💰😀

But wait!✋ There's more... 😄
As Grant said, 'replacement rate' only deals with replacing the uranium fuel that is being consumed by today's operating reactors under existing contracts signed years ago!🌎⚛️⛽️

Additional demand coming from ~80 new reactors under construction today (which nominally load 3 years worth of uranium fuel at start-up), shuttered plants like Palisades, Three Mile Island, Duane Arnold and others worldwide being restarted, as well as the many reactors now unexpectedly receiving new multi-decade life extensions, will drive the required amount of fuel purchasing to a level far above today's replacement rate in order to secure the much higher quantities of fuel that will be required⬆️🛢️☢️🛒😊 which Bloomberg recently calculated to be a +44% increase of 163 Gigawatts😲 which will add around 80 Million lbs per year of new uranium demand by 2036!😲 VERY exciting times ahead for U!😃

IMHO, Now is the time to get positioned to ride the coming colossal wave!🌊🏄

Good luck with your research & investments!☘️🌈💰It's your money... invest it wisely!🦉🤠🐂

[John Quakes @quakes99]

Holy Cow!🤯 Citing tight supply, insufficient contracting for future fuel needs amid rising demand and growing support for expanding Nuclear energy, Bank of America now forecasts $130/lb #Uranium prices NEXT YEAR🎆😲 a +52% surge from $86 today!💲⚛️🚀🤠🐂 https://t.co/DNdHV2IagD

[U.S. Department of Energy @ENERGY]

https://t.co/1wsdcS71j1

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

This has my full support.

Jensen is right.

[Steffan Szumowski @UnoMasReactor]

UBS raising a uranium supply red flag:

"While the earth’s uranium resources are ample, the main challenge is timing: Many of today’s largest mines will see declining output or exhaustion within 10-20 years. The World Nuclear Association warns that output from existing mines could fall by about 50% from 2030 to 2040 as current deposits are depleted. Without new projects, the gap between rising demand and shrinking supply could widen dramatically, threatening the nuclear revival. Developing new mines is a lengthy process—often taking 10-20 years from discovery to production due to permitting, financing, and construction hurdles. The industry has been slow to invest in new large mines after a decade of low prices."

Couple this with a recent visual from Goldman, and it really makes you wonder where reactor owners are planning on getting their uranium from in the decades ahead...

[Rand Group @randgroup]

☢️ THE URANIUM RACE: Meta, Amazon and Microsoft are now signing for nuclear power the way they used to sign for cloud contracts. The uranium to feed all of it does not exist yet.

This is the railroads moment for the AI buildout, and the market is still pricing it like a boring utility.

Uranium is having the strangest bull market I've ever watched. The price ripped past 101 dollars in January, then fell asleep for six months while the spot tape did nothing.

Meanwhile governments kept announcing reactors and the hyperscalers kept signing for nuclear power like it was cloud compute. The demand side is screaming and the price is whispering.

🪏 URANIUM MINERS

The miners are the leverage trade. When a scarce commodity finally reprices, the companies pulling it out of the ground earn on every pound at the new price while their costs barely move. That's why this group runs harder than the metal itself in every cycle. It's also why it falls harder when sentiment turns.

The catch is that not all of them are actually mining yet. Some are producers with real pounds and signed contracts. Others are developers selling a story about pounds that show up at the end of the decade. In a market this early, I'd rather own the ones already delivering into a rising term price than the ones still permitting a hole in the ground.

Tickers: $CCJ , $UEC , $NXE , $DNN and $UUUU

🪨 PHYSICAL URANIUM

This is the purest way to own the thesis. No mines, no drills, no management team fumbling a ramp. Just pounds of uranium sitting in a vault and a share price that tracks them. If you believe the metal reprices and you don't want to bet on any single operator's execution, this is the cleanest expression there is.

The tradeoff is you give up the leverage. Physical goes up with the metal and not a dollar more, while a good miner multiplies it. So I think of this layer as the anchor, not the moonshot. It's where you park conviction when you want to be right about uranium without having to be right about a company.

Tickers: $SRUUF and $UROY

☢️ NUCLEAR UTILITIES

These are the buyers who cannot walk away. A reactor needs fuel whether the spot price is 40 dollars or 140, and the operators running the fleet have to keep the lights on for millions of people. That's the demand floor under this entire market. It does not blink.

What changed is that these operators went from nobody's favorite stock to the cleanest AI trade on the board. The data center buildout needs power that runs all day and all night, and only one carbon free source does that at scale today. Owning the fleet is owning the toll booth on that demand. Slower than the miners, far more durable.

Tickers: $CEG , $VST , $DUK and $SO

🔋 REACTOR TECHNOLOGY

This is the lottery ticket layer, and I mean that as a compliment. Small modular reactors and advanced designs are the bet that the next wave of nuclear looks nothing like the giant plants of the past. Factory built, smaller, faster to site, dropped right next to the thing that needs the power.

Be honest about what you're buying here. Most of these companies have more PowerPoint than revenue, and the timelines are long and slippery. But if even one design becomes the standard the hyperscalers order by the dozen, the winner is enormous. High risk and genuinely asymmetric. Size it small.

Tickers: $OKLO , $SMR , $GEV , $BWXT and $RYCEY

📈 URANIUM ETFS

If picking the individual layer sounds like work, this is the shortcut. One ticker buys the whole basket and you stop worrying about which miner missed guidance or which reactor startup slipped another year. For most people who just want exposure to the trend, this is the honest answer.

The difference between them matters more than people think. Some lean into the big producers, some hunt the tiny juniors, some blend in the reactor and utility names for a broader nuclear bet. Pick the one whose tilt matches your appetite. A junior heavy fund and a diversified nuclear fund are two completely different rides.

Tickers: $URA , $URNM , $URNJ , $NLR and $NUKZ

🔎 FOREIGN LISTED (flagged separately, not on US exchanges)

$KAP.L is Kazatomprom, the largest uranium producer on earth. The map had it under physical uranium, but it's a miner, the biggest one there is. Listed in London and Astana. Trades over the counter in the US as NATKY.

$YCA.L is Yellow Cake, a pure physical holder just like the Sprott trust. Listed in London. Over the counter in the US as YLLXF.

$U.UN is the Toronto listing of the exact same Sprott Physical Uranium Trust as 🪏 above. Same pounds, same trust. Two tickers.

🧠 FINAL THOUGHTS

My honest take after mapping the whole thing: the crowd is loud about the miners and quiet about the two layers that matter most. The physical trusts, Sprott and Yellow Cake, are the cleanest way to be right about the metal without gambling on a single company. And the utilities, Constellation and its peers, are the demand that literally cannot quit, now wearing an AI costume the market is only starting to price.

Here's the claim I'll defend in the replies. The reactor technology names are where both the fortunes and the wipeouts live, and most people buying them have no idea which one they actually own. NuScale, Oklo, BWX Technologies and Rolls Royce are not the same bet in different wrappers. One of them might print. The rest are options that expire worthless if the timelines keep slipping.

[Jamin Ball @jaminball]

https://t.co/xPBCpQbhUH

[U.S. Department of Energy @ENERGY]

https://t.co/ay9dVPRD34

[Madi Hilly @MadiHilly]

🇩��� German Nuclear Industry: "Nuclear Restarts Viable and Sensible"!

We are grateful that German industry leaders cited @RadiantEnergyG's updated analysis on the state of German nuclear in their letter declaring restarts possible.

We gave them a preview of our report to support them in their efforts.

For the rest of the world, the full and detailed report will be dropping Monday morning German time.

[Jamin Ball @jaminball]

https://t.co/Pt8DDWnWw9

[Trevor Noren @trevornoren]

Another one from the JPM report: "While both frontier labs are profitable on a gross margin basis, the bigger questions relate to capital spending and operating margins. In April 2026, Anthropic contracted for 8.5 GW of computing capacity; in May it contracted with SpaceX for its 300 MW Colossus I campus; and in June it contracted with Google for what we estimate to be another 1-2 GW. The big picture: frontier lab commitments are around half of the $2t in revenue backlogs disclosed by large cloud providers as of Q1, and these commitments have grown since then...At this point, I view frontier lab projections of when they will be cash flow positive as speculative, uncertain and subject to revision."

Often in conversation with clients and prospects about AI, they cite the frontier lab path to profitability as if it's more or less certain. Given emerging evidence of an intensifying price war, enterprise budget caps, and slower-than-expected enterprise adoption, "speculative" is the right word.

This from the FT: "Current estimates suggest the level of AI adoption is quite low...Data from the OECD covering 35 countries shows adoption ranging from 42% (Denmark) to 5.2% (Romania) for companies with 10 or more employees in 2025...A stricter definition, but one I think is closer to what we now consider to constitute transformative AI, is the technology that defines OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude—“text generation using large language models”. When looking at the use of AI defined in this way, only 34% of UK companies have adopted the technology (according to BoE) or 16% (according to ONS)."

In my December report on "GenAI & Productivity" (https://t.co/kEx5Z4BJH7), I dissected AI's strengths, weaknesses, and trajectory of improvement and why I thought markets were overly optimistic about adoption and ROI on that adoption. To quote the report:

"Often as we researched this report, self-interest was apparent in how thought leaders glossed over genAI’s current weaknesses, whether it’s the technologists selling genAI applications, the consultants poised to profit off of guiding companies through genAI transformations, or the investors whose future returns depend on genAI-driven outperformance. The dominant message is that the challenges are transitory and soon-to-be resolved. Companies recognize the steps they need to take to unlock genAI’s ROI potential so they’ll act quickly to resolve them.

We believe this is the most significant misguided genAI assumption priced into markets today. GenAI is delivering ROI already for many use cases across industries. However, for it to truly scale across industries and unlock the game-changing productivity gains many investors expect, significant weaknesses need to be overcome."

JPM link: https://t.co/P8hiu8swMI

FT link: https://t.co/zDDs5VKI45

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

Mizuho Securities: 800V DC Value Chain

Power-infrastructure integrators & SST system OEMs

SolarEdge $SEDG
Eaton $ETN
Delta Electronics $2308.TW
Enphase $ENPH
Schneider Electric $SU.PA
ABB $ABBN.SW
Vertiv $VRT
Siemens $GEV
Siemens Energy $ENR.DE
GE Vernova $GEV
Hitachi (Hitachi Energy) $6501.T
Resilient Power (Eaton) $ETN

Protection, connectors, switchgear, sensors

Amphenol $APH
TE Connectivity $TEL
VizLink $3655.TW
Sensata $ST
LEM Holding $LEHN.SW
Allegro Microsystems $ALGM
Littelfuse $LLFUS
Eaton $ETN
Schneider Electric $SU.PA

SiC crystal, substrates, wafers, epi-wafers

Wolfspeed $WOLF
Coherent $OHR
SICC/Tianyu Advanced $688234.SH + $02631.HK Resonac $4004.T
ROHM $6963.T

Specialty foundry/contract wafer processing

X-FAB Silicon Foundries $XFAB.PA
Tower Semiconductor $TSEM
GlobalFoundries $GFS

Branded power semiconductors (SiC, GaN, Si MOSFETs, drivers, controllers, PMICs)

Infineon $IFX.DE
onsemi $ON
STMicroelectronics $STM
ROHM $6963.T
Mitsubishi Electric $6503.T
Wolfspeed $WOLF
Navitas Semiconductor $NVTS
Monolithic Power Systems $MPS
Texas Instruments $TXN
Analog Devies $ADI
Renesas $6723.T
Power Integrations $POWI
Innosccience $2577.HK
Richtek (MediaTek) $2454.TW
Alpha & Omega Semi $ASOL

Power modules & subassemblies

Infineon $IFX.DE
Mitsubishi Electric $6503.T
Fuji Electric $6504.T
Wolfspeed $6963.T
onsemi $ON
ROHM $6963.T

Magnetics, capacitors, insulation, busbars, thermals

TDK $6762.T
Vishay Intertechnology $VSH
Murata $6981.T
Yageo $2327.TW
Nichicon $6996.T
Rogers $ROG
Boyd Thermal (Eaton) $ETN

EMS/contract manufacturing & rack integration

Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) $2317.TW
Flex $FLEX
Jabil $JBL
Celestica $CLS
Sanmina $SANM
Lite-On Technology $2301.TW
Megmeet $002851.SZ

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

JP Morgan: AI Power Semiconductors

> JPMorgan’s latest research indicates that the market for AI power semiconductors is on the verge of massive expansion. The firm projects that the sector will scale from approximately $2.7 billion in 2025 to around $16 billion by 2028. This rapid trajectory represents a remarkable three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 82%.

This growth is primarily propelled by two main factors:

1. Systemic transition of data centers toward 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC) architectures. This architectural redesign will notably increase the total value and density of semiconductor components required for every kilowatt of power managed.

2. Wholesale replacement of traditional electromechanical components with solid-state, semiconductor-based solutions throughout the entire power distribution chain, stretching from the primary utility grid down to the individual server rack. Over the long term, this modernization is expected to double silicon carbide (SiC) component value per kilowatt, climbing from $30 to $60. Concurrently, gallium nitride (GaN) component value is projected to experience a massive surge, skyrocketing from a baseline of $3 to $46 per kilowatt, representing an especially profound growth vector for wide-bandgap materials.

> JPMorgan forecasts that total new AI data center capacity additions will reach approximately 80 gigawatts (GW) by 2028, consisting of roughly 63 GW from new construction and about 18 GW from legacy replacements. Factoring in a baseline compute capacity expansion of 65 GW and an average semiconductor content value of $250 per kilowatt, the firm projects the AI power semiconductor market will scale to about $16 billion by 2028.

> Data disclosed by Infineon indicates that the current semiconductor content per kilowatt stands at approximately $175. However, the company provides a guidance range of $100 to $250, fluctuating based on specific architectural implementations. As the industry widely adopts vertical power delivery modules, integrates large-scale solid-state transformers (SSTs) and solid-state circuit breakers (SSCBs), and aggressively implements high-value GaN devices, semiconductor value is projected to shift toward the maximum end of this spectrum—and potentially surpass it.

> By material breakdown, traditional silicon (Si) will maintain its position as the largest revenue generator, with a projected market size of roughly $11.2 billion by 2028. Silicon carbide (SiC) is estimated to follow at around $3.1 billion, while gallium nitride (GaN) is expected to reach approximately $1.7 billion. Even though silicon commands the largest footprint in absolute dollar terms, wide-bandgap alternatives like SiC and GaN are expanding at a much faster velocity and will continue to capture market share.

> Legacy data center power architectures suffer from severe efficiency bottlenecks. On the journey from the primary utility grid to the actual GPU silicon, electricity passes through four to five distinct conversion phases—including transformers, uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), power distribution units (PDU), server power supplies (PSU), and voltage regulator modules (VRM). This multi-stage process drags end-to-end efficiency down to a modest 85% to 88%, which means a substantial 12 to 15 kilowatts out of every 100-kilowatt server rack are lost purely as waste heat.

> The 800V High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) architecture fundamentally resolves these physical limits by raising the system voltage and lowering the current, drastically minimizing line-resistance (copper) losses and Joule heating. This streamlined design strips out double-conversion UPS clusters, rack-level step-down transformers, conventional PDUs, and the independent AC-to-DC power bricks found on legacy servers. In their place, the 800V HVDC layout implements centralized, high-efficiency AC-DC rectifiers, specialized rack-level 800V-to-low-voltage DC-DC converters, and native DC battery backup units (BBUs).

JPMorgan divides this transition into three phases:

Current phase (2026–2027): Traditional 215V–400V AC architectures remain dominant; native 800V racks have not yet become widespread, and retrofitting efforts are underway.

Short to medium term (second half of 2027 to 2028): NVIDIA’s Kyber racks are scheduled for mass production in 2027, marking the beginning of large-scale deployment of native 800V racks. Schneider and Legrand anticipate that significant 800V traction will not emerge before 2028.

Medium to long term (post-2028): Solid-state transformers (SSTs) will directly convert medium-voltage AC to 800V DC, integrating transformer and rectifier functions. Large-scale deployment of SSTs is not expected before late 2027 to early 2028.

> Silicon carbide (SiC) serves as the cornerstone for power infrastructure stretching from the primary high-voltage utility grid down to the individual server rack. In demanding, high-voltage environments—including solid-state transformers (SSTs), solid-state circuit breakers (SSCBs), and energy storage systems (ESS)—SiC is considered irreplaceable. This material dependency is driven by its exceptional physical properties: a breakdown electric field roughly 10 times greater than traditional silicon, combined with a thermal conductivity that is three times superior. Highlighting this shift, Infineon projects that by 2030, the global market for SSTs will top $1 billion, while the SSCB market will expand past $800 million. Furthermore, centralized AC-DC rectifiers are increasingly engineered around these high-voltage SiC MOSFETs to maximize efficiency.

> Gallium nitride (GaN) displays distinct advantages during "Stage 1" power management, which involves stepping down 800V inputs to lower, usable voltages. Utilizing 650V GaN High Electron Mobility Transistors (HEMTs), these devices leverage exceptional electron mobility to operate efficiently at megahertz (MHz) frequencies. This high-frequency switching capability allows engineers to use far smaller passive components, dramatically optimizing overall system power density. Demonstrating this capability, Navitas developed a 10-kilowatt, all-GaN DC-DC platform that achieves 98.5% peak efficiency during 800V-to-50V down-conversion. Taking this a step further, their aggressive single-stage 800V-to-6V architecture eliminates intermediate conversion steps entirely, hitting a peak efficiency of 96.5% and cramming a power density of 2,100 W/in³ into a profile thinner than a mobile phone. Driven by these high-performance properties, JPMorgan forecasts that the long-term dollar value of GaN components packed into every kilowatt will scale from today's $3 to $46—marking an explosive, 15-fold market increase.

> Legacy silicon-based components will maintain their dominance in "Stage 2" power delivery, which covers the voltage regulator module (VRM) and point-of-load (PoL) stages. VRMs are tasked with delivering hundreds to thousands of amperes of current directly to GPU chips at ultra-low voltages, all while adapting within nanoseconds to sudden load spikes triggered by intense GPU computing cycles. At this precise point in the power chain, low-voltage silicon MOSFETs remain incredibly difficult to displace due to their ideal balance of mature cost and reliable performance. However, the industry-wide transition toward complex vertical power delivery modules (VPDMs) is dramatically altering the economics, driving up individual component unit prices by three to four times.

> The explosive rise of AI computing is simultaneously triggering massive investments in global power grid expansion. Global data center electricity demand is projected to more than double from roughly 115 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to between 240 and 280 GW by 2030. According to BloombergNEF (BNEF), global grid capital expenditures will exceed $470 billion in 2025 alone, with the United States representing about $115 billion of that total. This aligns with a broader macroeconomic shift, where total global spending on the wider energy transition—including renewables, grid infrastructure, EVs, and stationary storage—is expected to hit $2.3 trillion.

> Within this framework, Energy Storage Systems (ESS) are transitioning into critical infrastructure for AI data centers. Because AI processing workloads cause server racks to spike from a 30% idle state to 100% full capacity within milliseconds, entire data center facilities face massive, multi-megawatt power swings in mere seconds. Rather than acting as simple passive emergency backups, ESS must function as active buffers that shield the electrical grid from chaotic GPU power fluctuations. Consequently, data centers are forecast to represent 83% of all behind-the-meter commercial and industrial ESS deployments by 2030.

> On the hardware level, each storage installation relies on bidirectional inverters built around advanced IGBT or SiC power modules. Infineon estimates that this semiconductor content translates to over €2,000 per megawatt. With global ESS shipments projected to hit roughly 1,500 GWh (equivalent to 375 GW of capacity), the addressable market for these power semiconductors represents an estimated €750 million opportunity.

[matthew sigel, recovering CFA @matthew_sigel]

https://t.co/OdSKSRx1TG

[nox @brandnewnox]

$POWL (Powell Industries)

เข้าใจว่าเป็นแค่หุ้น industrial ทั่วๆไป หลังนั่งไล่งบ filing earnings call แล้วก็แกะ supply chain ไปเรื่อยๆ ก็เริ่มเห็นอะไรเอ๊ะๆ

ผมว่าจริงๆ แล้ว $POWL มันไปอยู่ตรง "คอขวดของระบบไฟฟ้า" ในยุค AI นี่แหละ

ลองคิดตามนี้นะ

เมื่อโลกกำลังสร้าง AI data center เพิ่ม -> โรงไฟฟ้ากับ grid เลยต้อง upgrade ตาม -> LNG export terminal ก็ใช้ระบบไฟฟ้าขนาดใหญ่ -> โรงงานอุตสาหกรรมก็ต้องการระบบจ่ายไฟที่เสถียรกว่าเดิม

ทีนี้พอความต้องการใช้ไฟฟ้าเยอะๆเข้า สิ่งที่โตตามไม่ใช่แค่ GPU, server หรือ cooling เลย แต่มันคือระบบไฟฟ้า "ทั้งก้อน"

เริ่มตั้งแต่วัตถุดิบอย่าง ทองแดง เหล็ก อะลูมิเนียม จนไปถึง breaker, transformer, relay, enclosure แล้วถึงถูกเอามาประกอบเป็นระบบใหญ่ๆ แล้วค่อยติดตั้งใ��� data center, utility, LNG project หรือโรงงานอีกที

$POWL อยู่ตรงกลางที่ว่านี้เป๊ะะะ

บริษัทไม่ได้ขายแค่ทองแดง ไม่ได้ขายแค่เหล็ก ไม่ได้ขาย component ชิ้นเล็กๆ อย่างเดียวด้วย แต่เขาขายระบบไฟฟ้าที่ออกแบบเฉพาะโปรเจกต�� ทั้ง switchgear, substation, power control room, E-house บลาๆ อะไรพวกนี้

พูดให้ง่ายคือ $POWL เอาของหลายๆ ชิ้นจาก supplier หลายเจ้ามาประกอบรวมกันเป็นระบบเดียว ออกแบบให้เข้ากับหน้างาน ทดสอบความปลอดภัย แล้วส่งมอบให้ลูกค้าที่ความเสี่ยงเรื่องไฟฟ้าผิดพลาดไม่ได้เลย

data center → ไฟต้องนิ่ง
LNG → ไฟต้องปลอดภัย
โรงงาน → ไฟดับไม่ได้
utility → ระบบต้องไว้ใจได้

นี่คือเหตุผลที่ลูกค้ายอมจ่าย premium ให้บริษัทแบบ $POWL เพราะสิ่งที่��ขาซื้อไม่ใช่ "ตู้ไฟ" แต่คือความสามารถในการทำให้ project ไฟฟ้าขนาดใหญ่เดินหน้าได้แบบชัวร์ๆ

ตอนนี้งบการเงินก็เริ่มสะท้อน story นี้แล้วเหมือนกัน

> Revenue โตจาก $471M ใน FY2021 → $1.1B ใน FY2025
> Gross margin จาก 16% → เกือบ 30%
> Backlog ล่าสุดประมาณ $1.8B
> Cash $545M
> ไม่มีหนี้เลย

ที่ผมคิดว่าน่าสนใจที่สุดคือบริษัทเพิ่งได้ data center order มูลค่า $400M+ ซึ่งใหญ่สุดในประวัติศาสตร์บริษัท จุดนี้แหละที่ทำให้ narrative มันเปลี่ยน

จากเมื่อก่อนที่ตลาดอาจมอง $POWL เป็นแค่หุ้น oil & gas / industrial cyclical ตอนนี้เริ่มถูกมองเป็นหุ้น electrification / AI power infrastructure แทน

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ทีนี้ระหว่างที่ผมนั่งไล่ supply chain ผมก็มีคำถามว่า "แล้วใครได้ประโยชน์ตามถ้า $POWL โต?"

มี $ETN เป็นทั้งคู่แข่งและ supplier บางส่วน (breaker, electrical component พวกนี้) ได้ประโยชน์จากธีม electrification เหมือนกัน แต่ $POWL ยังเล็กมากเทียบกับรายได้ของ $ETN

$NVT ก็น่าสนใจในมุม enclosure, electrical infrastructure, thermal management อาจได้ประโยชน์ทางอ้อมจาก data center และระบบไฟฟ้า แต่ยังไม่เจอหลักฐานว่าเป็น supplier หลักของ $POWL โดยตรง

ส่วนฝั่ง data center infrastructure ก็มี $VRT กับ $GEV — ไม่ได้เป็น supplier ตรงของ $POWL แต่เป็น adjacent play อยู่ใน ecosystem เดียว��ัน ถ้า AI data center โต ทั้งคู่ก็ได้ประโยชน์

อีกมุมคือ contractor/installer อย่าง $PWR กับ $MYRG — พอ project พวก data center, utility, LNG, grid มันโต อุปกรณ์ไฟฟ้าทั้งหมดต้องมีคนมาติดตั้ง มาเชื่อมระบบ มา infrastructure ตามมา สองตัวนี้เลยเป็น beneficiary ทางอ้อมของเม็ดเงินลงทุนระบบไฟฟ้า

ส่วน commodity ต้นน้ำอย่าง $FCX, $SCCO, $NUE, $STLD ได้ประโยชน์จาก demand ทองแดงกับเหล็กที่เพิ่มขึ้นก็จริง แต่ exposure มันกว้างเกิน จะเรียกว่าเป็น hidden supplier ของ $POWL เฉพาะเจาะจงก็ไม่ใ���่

สรุปคือผมยังไม่เจอ "หุ้นต้นน้ำลับ" ที่รายได้ผูกกับ $POWL แบบมีนัยสำคัญ มีหลายบริษัทที่เกี่ยวข้องก็จริง แต่ $POWL ยังเล็กไปเทียบกับ revenue ของ supplier พวกนั้น เพราะงั้นถ้าจะเล่นธีมนี้ตรงๆ $POWL เองก็เป็น pure-play ที่สุดอยู่ดี แต่ถ้ากังวลว่า $POWL ราคาแรงไปแล้ว ก็ต้องไปมองหุ้นรอบๆ ระบบไฟฟ้าแทน อย่าง $ETN, $NVT, $VRT, $GEV, $PWR, $MYRG ก็โอเค

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ปัญหาหลักของ $POWL คือ valuation

ธุรกิจดีจริง แต่หุ้นขึ้นมาแรงมาก จากปลายปี 2022 ถึงตอนนี้ขึ้นมาประมาณ 15 เท่า P/E วิ่งอยู่แถว 55–60x

ตรงนี้บอกอะไร? ตลาดไม่ได้ให้ premium แค่เพราะบริษัทดี แต่มันกำลัง price in ว่า $POWL จะโตแรงต่อเนื่องหลายปีและ execute ได้เกือบสมบูรณ์แบบ

ผมเลยมองแบบนี้

$POWL = ธุรกิจดีมาก อยู่ถูกจุดของ megatrend
แต่ราคาหุ้นตอนนี้ story มันถูก priced in ไปเยอะแล้ว

ผมชอบ business นะ แต่ risk/reward ณ valuation ปัจจุบันยังไม่โดน

ก็เลยเป็น watchlist ไว้ก่อน รอดู Q3 ว่า order $400M data center จะเข้า backlog และ financials ยังไง margin จะยืนได้ไหม แล้วจะมี mega order เพิ่มจากลูกค้ารายอื่นอีกหรือเปล่า

ถ้าราคาย่อแรงจน valuation สมเหตุสมผลกว่านี้ ค่อยว่ากันอีกที

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ใครอยากอ่านฉบับเต็มที่ผม research ไว้ — เขียนละเอ��ยดตั้งแต่ธุรกิจ งบ backlog supply chain upstream stocks bull/bear case ยัน valuation อ่านต่อได้ที่ลิงค์ข้างล่างนะ

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH PLEASE

[JSP @iamjars]

@brandnewnox อยากให้ไปต่อที่ Uranium supply ครับ "แร่ยูเรเนียมอยู่ไหน" ยังมีความบัน���ทิงอยู่อีกนะ 555

[Odelia Energy @odeliaenergy]

FERC JUST PUT EVERY MAJOR U.S. GRID OPERATOR ON THE CLOCK TO FIX DATA CENTER INTERCONNECTIONS.

THE ORDERS

• FERC issued show cause orders to all six U.S. grid operators, requiring them to justify or reform their large-load and data center interconnection rules within 60 days.

• The agency is seeking reforms to accelerate study timelines, improve cost transparency, and establish clearer rules for co-located loads and behind-the-meter generation.

• FERC also directed grid operators to address flexible load services and generation interconnection studies for proximate large loads.

WHY IT MATTERS

• The goal is to protect existing ratepayers while maintaining reliability as AI-driven electricity demand surges.

• Clearer rules could speed power access for data centers and other large industrial customers.

• The proceeding may also create a more predictable pathway for advanced nuclear projects pursuing co-location strategies with data centers.

OE READ

FERC is signaling that interconnection policy can no longer be the bottleneck for AI infrastructure.The biggest question is whether grid operators respond with incremental fixes or a fundamentally new framework for co-located generation and large flexible loads.

What impact do you expect on data center development and nuclear co-location projects?

[JSP @iamjars]

@HyperSharkk เน้นกำไรเหรอ
��ปล่าครับ ผมเน้นเติม 555

[U.S. Department of Energy @ENERGY]

https://t.co/sfV2PcMTUc