IamPengu

Trust Fund

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

Cramer saved the memory trade

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

@iampengu911 yes

[Jeff Pu @sssjeffpu]

@jukan05 making sense

[IamPengu @iampengu911]

@zephyr_z9 So are you still bullish memory?

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

"memory tax is effectively getting framed as Nvidia tax"

Well, 35%-40% of the total CAPEX will be spent on memory
A large chunk of CAPEX revisions by hyperscalers is due to higher memory prices, not just to build more capacity

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Looking at the current market mood, it feels like memory is going down either way.

Case 1: If they deliver earnings above market expectations:
“Isn’t this peak-out? Do you really think these profits are sustainable? Memory is cyclical, and this is the top.”
Case 2: If they miss market expectations:
“Memory is over now. Even after excluding bonus provisions, they should have easily printed KRW90tn. Sell on news.”

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

*SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS REPORTED 2Q OPERATING PROFIT OF KRW 89 TRILLION.

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

LOL
Nearly $600B & $450B
BRUH
As I have said before, both will cross $3T in market cap

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Why hasn’t the news spread yet that Situational Awareness has shown interest in buying SK Hynix ADRs?

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

UBS operating profit estimates for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix

1. Samsung Electronics
2026: KRW 441T ($287.9B)
2027: KRW 837T ($546.5B)
2028: KRW 902T ($588.9B)

2. SK hynix
2026: KRW 327T ($213.5B)
2027: KRW 623T ($406.8B)
2028: KRW 667T ($435.5B)

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Korean media reported that Kim Yong-kwan, President and Head of Business Strategy at Samsung Electronics’ Device Solutions division, said during a DS division management town hall meeting on July 3 that this year’s operating profit is expected to be in line with market consensus.

Korean brokerages estimate Samsung’s operating profit this year at around KRW 300 trillion, or roughly USD 200 billion.

In particular, Kim reportedly said, “This year’s profit alone will exceed the cumulative profit generated over the 40 years since Samsung entered the semiconductor business.”

[IamPengu @iampengu911]

@0xKNL__ Are you short term bearish

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

1. Bullish for the NPO supply chain.
2. The spec downgrade of NVIDIA Rubin Ultra signals the erosion of NVIDIA’s performance moat.
3. Bearish for the CPO supply chain.
4. Big winners: AMD and the TPU ecosystem?

[hedgedhog @hedgedhog7]

tping $hynix $mu and some $nq

would have liked $nq lower but want to reduce exposure before long weekend

my best guess is we get some sort of deadcat over the next 1-2 weeks before more down

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some consolidated updates on memory:

- $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized.

- Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream.

- MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond

- UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est.

- UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter.

- Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations.

Something to note:

Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters.

But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation.

I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names...

I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

According to a new review of the ThinkBook 14 G9 by Notebookcheck, Chinese PC maker Lenovo has, for the first time, begun shipping globally configured laptops equipped with YMTC-made SSDs.

$SNDK $MU

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Samsung reportedly plans to raise DRAM prices by 20% in Q3; manufacturers say they have already received verbal notices

On July 3, reports emerged that Samsung Electronics plans to raise the average selling price of DRAM in the third quarter of this year by 20% quarter over quarter.

“That is true,” said the head of a consumer electronics terminal manufacturer. According to the person, Samsung had already held price negotiations with them in June, and they have now received a verbal notice from Samsung regarding the DRAM price increase.

“The sharp increase in upstream component prices will be passed on to end-product prices, which may suppress some market demand. However, overall prices for consumer electronics products are not very high at the moment, so even if prices rise, it is unlikely to significantly affect users’ purchasing decisions,” the person said.

Another senior industry insider also told reporters that the news of Samsung’s planned 20% DRAM price hike in Q3 is true, and that Samsung has already notified some customers through verbal quotations.

As of publication, Samsung had not issued an official response regarding the Q3 DRAM price increase. — Yicai

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

Bernstein estimates that SK hynix’s DRAM gross margin in Q2 will reach 90.9%…

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

>> TrendForce: AI server demand underpins memory prices… Q3 DRAM +13 to 18%, NAND +10 to 15% QoQ increase expected

• According to TrendForce's latest memory price survey, the DRAM market in Q3 2026 is expected to continue experiencing severe supply shortages across the board. That said, softening demand in consumer applications and a high base effect will moderate the pace of the increase somewhat, with DRAM contract prices projected to rise +13 to 18% QoQ.

• For NAND Flash, AI inference demand and large scale data center buildouts continue to drive the bulk of demand. However, with contract prices already at record highs and consumer market demand slowing, customers' capacity to absorb further price increases has reached its limit. As a result, TrendForce forecasts NAND Flash contract prices to rise +10 to 15% QoQ, with the magnitude of the increase narrowing noticeably versus prior quarters.

[Jukan @ ICML @jukan05]

*SAMSUNG FOUNDRY IN TALKS WITH META ON A $6.54 BILLION CONTRACT FOR THIRD-GENERATION MTIA CHIPS (SEDAILY)