Waqas Ahmed

Tech Enthusiast / Small PSX Investor

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

@tehmi797 @ksestocksdotcom Check out my post. You will get the answer.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

@ksestocksdotcom https://t.co/HTKCRRk4vJ

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

1/8

Wondering why #BUXLY keeps hitting upper cap day after day?

The answer may be much simpler than people think.

Market Cap: 1,334,548.80
Total Shares: 1.44M
Free Float: only 576K shares
That is an extremely small tradable float.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

8/8

#BUXLY may be a perfect example of why investors should respect liquidity risk.

A tiny free float can send a stock up very quickly — and potentially make the exit extremely painful when momentum ends.

Never chase parabolic moves without proper research & valuation.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

1/8

Wondering why #BUXLY keeps hitting upper cap day after day?

The answer may be much simpler than people think.

Market Cap: 1,334,548.80
Total Shares: 1.44M
Free Float: only 576K shares
That is an extremely small tradable float.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

7/8
Before chasing a parabolic stock, ask:
• What changed fundamentally?
• Are earnings improving?
• Is valuation justified?
• What is the average daily traded volume?
• Who will provide liquidity when I want to exit?
• Am I buying the company, or simply chasing the chart?

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

A few aggressive buyers can create an exaggerated move because there simply aren't enough shares available in the market.

So don't automatically interpret a vertical chart as evidence of:

• Strong earnings
• Cheap valuation
• Improving business
• Institutional accumulation

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

Imagine holding a stock showing +50%, +100% or even more on paper...

But when you finally decide to sell, the stock starts hitting lower caps and there isn't enough buying liquidity to absorb your shares.

You can remain stuck for days or weeks while the price keeps falling.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

4/8
The biggest risk here is LIQUIDITY.
Getting into an illiquid stock can be easy when everyone wants to buy.

Getting OUT is the real problem.

When sentiment reverses, the same stock that had no sellers may suddenly have no buyers.

Then your profit exists only on the screen.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

This is where inexperienced investors can get trapped.

They see:

✅ Upper cap every day
✅ No sellers
✅ Rapid price appreciation
✅ Social media hype
And they assume:
"If I buy today, someone will buy from me even higher tomorrow."
That assumption can become very dangerous.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

2/8
When the free float is this small, you don't need massive buying pressure to push the stock higher.

A relatively small amount of money can absorb the available sellers and create repeated upper caps.

That doesn't automatically mean the business suddenly became stronger.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

@iabdullah278 All good until the market is volatile. When volumes are huge, all sucks.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

@StockCompounder ATRL
DGKC
BBFL
SNBL
FATIMA
BFBIO
HBL
BOP
FABL
GAL

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

@ksestocksdotcom Just zoom out the chart and you will see!

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

In stocks, everyone is playing a different game, and you never really know what game the other person is playing. So, never give your cue to someone else to play for you or blindly rely on someone to recommend a stock for your hard-earned money.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

These are the 5 biggest lessons I’ve learned so far in the stock market.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

There are hundreds of stocks still trading at attractive prices, but you can’t load all of them into your portfolio and create a super long tail. Stick with the companies you have the highest conviction in and let the others go without regret.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

When I started, I thought I would never sell anything while it was negative. But I realised that if you don’t cut off a paralysed hand when necessary, it can affect the whole body. So, have the guts to book a loss.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

Making money in stocks is not as easy as people think.
You have to pay a cost for the returns, and that cost is often non-tangible. It comes in the form of emotions, sentiments, mood swings, stress, and bad feelings. All of these are part of the price.

[Waqas Ahmed @iamwaqasdotcom]

The longer you stay in the market, the better your chances of making good returns.
The stocks I bought during the war and didn’t touch are more profitable than the ones I kept buying and selling. So, if you want to make real money, make your time horizon longer.

[Wealth ⚡️ Wise @WealthWise15992]

My take on Optimus’ HUBC report:

-The CPHGC true-up risk is real and material. Optimus estimates annual ROE falling from $129.9m to $92.2m. With HUBC’s 47.5% stake, that could translate into roughly PKR 5bn / PKR 3.9 per share of annual earnings impact if the determination ultimately stands.

-Where I disagree is with the certainty implied by “A Matter of When, Not If.” Nobody can predict litigation with certainty. Without examining the complete record and grounds of appeal, I also cannot comment on the merits of CPHGC’s case.

-The sensible approach is therefore to probability-weight the risk, not assign a 100% probability of losing. Even an adverse appellate decision may not necessarily mean finality, as further recourse to higher courts could remain available.

-I have similar reservations about automatically assuming comparable ROE cuts for TEL and TNPTL before their respective true-ups are determined.

-On Optimus’ assumption of a ~9% ROE reduction for TEL and TNPTL, the combined impact on HUBC would be only about Rs0.8/share in annual EPS, or roughly 2% of FY25 EPS.

-So while Optimus has identified a genuine downside risk, its PKR 176 fair value looks closer to a bear-case valuation than a probability-weighted base case to me.

-Also, HUBC is no longer just a legacy IPP portfolio. BYD/MMPL, E&P and mining provide meaningful optionality, and Optimus values MMPL at only around PKR 20/share.

On a personal note, I have to admit the predicting an outcome of litigation or a certain event is notoriously difficult. The risk is real. The outcome is not certain as being predicted by Optimus capital, it is not clear cut opportunity to acquire more rather one needs to be cautious.

#PSX #HUBC #KSE100