Ian Albin

Just here to laugh and learn. Formerly @grayscale and EM Fixed Income @DeutscheBank

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@Fullcarry Great points, but don’t think the federal budget deficit was as bad in 2016 as it is now. Would think it has to be a risk to long end.

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@WinfieldSmart If you take out Chinese stocks does it look as extreme?

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

When the market comes for your positions, the pain is real.

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@macrokurd Can’t argue that. All week I’ve heard “100bps of cuts in US next year seems excessive.” Yet the only payers I’ve seen (in EM) are profit takers.
Let’s see when calendar turns and sovereign/corp issuance puts some pressure on USTs. And dare I say, if economic data turns stronger

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@dampedspring @LukeGromen Hi Andy, as you’ve highlighted the QRA was huge signal and driver for rates, but do you think it would have been as clear (or as big of a move) if we did not get a ‘perceived’ dovish Fed, weak NFP, and slightly higher unemployment the same week? Serious ? Appreciate what u share

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

#fintwit the conversation at every macro hedge fund pod today

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

#fintwit

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@hmeisler Thank you! Is it just me or does URA and the 10yr look really similar. Just a few days lag?

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

⁦@mark_dow⁩ ⁦@kevinmuir⁩

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@BehavioralMacro UST 10v30 bear steepener is THE pain trade.
Not equities higher.

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@BobEUnlimited What do think of Brazil as an opposite case study?
Keeping rates on hold at double digits, while inflation has dropped to 3 % handle.
Thanks for your insights

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@BehavioralMacro I can’t agree more. This is the front page narrative at moment.

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@BehavioralMacro Yes. And its taking longer than anticipated for services to deflate. Btw, this is parallel to EM where investors were convinced the easing cycle would have begun by now BUT keeps getting pushed back because it’s not showing in the data and Central Bankers have stayed hawkish.

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@BehavioralMacro I’m curious what signs you see we are in the midst of the slow down.
Mostly curious if data driven or gut?
Thanks

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@hmeisler What’s more disappointing energy or biotech?

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@BehavioralMacro 🤣

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@BehavioralMacro Thanks Mark. Wonder if we magically get a pick up in SPR talk

[Ian Albin @IanAlbin2]

@jnordvig @macrokurd Global FI funds were reluctant to add EM Local until they believed we hit peak UST yields and we were close to Fed cuts. Even then the beneficiaries were Braz and Mex. Vol has reentered the mkt and cuts pushed back, I suspect they will remain cautious, despite the opportunities