martingale

CARFI

[Becky Anderson @BeckyCNN]

“You should not replace something with nothing,” @elerianm tells me as the UK marks 10 years since voting to leave the world’s largest single market. A decade on, I asked him how high has the price of Brexit been for the UK:

[Molly O’Shea @MollySOShea]

BREAKING: Mark Pincus (@markpinc) on How to Build Billion-Dollar Products

"Your # 1 job as a founder is to be right."
"F*ck scale."
"Don't be a fake CEO."

Mark founded Zynga in 2007, grew FarmVille + Words With Friends to 1B+ users in 4 years, & sold the company to Take-Two for $12.7B. Before that he was an early investor in Facebook & Twitter. Across 10 companies, he's spent 30 years learning how to build products people love.

Now he's put it into "Life at the Speed of Play," aka the "Product Maker Bible"

His goal: something you can reread in 10 years & still use, the way he rereads Peter Thiel's Zero to One.

We went deep on the framework:
- Your product instinct is right ~95% of the time, but your specific idea is wrong at least 75% of the time. The whole job is separating the two & k*lling your B+ idea to find the A.

- Proven Better New: copy what already works, make it objectively better, then add one new bet.

- 40,000 games launched in the App Store last year. 0% held a top 25 spot. Why products win on day 365 retention, not virality.. lessons from @nikitabier & more

- Why he's an AI maximalist who still calls consumer AI un-investable, & thinks today's $2-5T companies become $10-20T companies.

𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒
(00:00) Mark Pincus, Chairman & Founder at Zynga
(01:07) Why it took so long to write the book
(01:52) Why the book starts with Elon
(07:29) How frustration becomes market research
(08:16) The gap between Airbnb and hotels
(09:14) Why people don't want flight attendants on private jets
(13:13) The goal behind Life at the Speed of Play
(15:07) The instincts vs. ideas framework
(21:01) Do instincts improve with experience?
(22:49) A framework for building winning products
(29:38) Becoming a student of yourself
(31:16) Finding great ideas in overlooked products
(34:39) Why AI makes building easier & winning harder
(39:17) Cracking Zynga's record-setting retention
(44:59) What Mark looks for in startups
(50:42) Jeff Bezos' boldest decision
(53:03) What happens when founders realize they're wrong
(59:37) How Mark found talent others overlooked
(1:06:58) Don't be a fake CEO
(1:12:15) Inside Silicon Valley's early days
(1:14:58) Why he funded Friendster & Napster as "experiments"
(1:17:00) The 'think weekend' with Thiel, Zuckerberg, Reid Hoffman & Sean Parker
(1:18:58) Launching Zynga when nobody believed him
(1:21:42) Why Mark is an AI maximalist

[sourcery @sourceryy]

Craft Founder @israelslod explains why it makes sense for people like Palantir CEO Alex Karp and @elonmusk to own a plane:

"There's just things you can't do without private aviation."

"I think [Karp] has two airplanes."

"It sounds like they were in the air a lot."

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Investors are worried that tech companies are bumping up against what they can charge customers to use their most advanced large language models, reducing potential profits. Hyperscaler stocks have directly tracked token prices of late, via @DRBCurtis @BloombergTV

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

In less than ten trading sessions, SpaceX priced its IPO at $135, surged to almost $220, and has now retraced to $166.
In other words, investors who were lucky enough to acquire their exposure at the IPO are currently up 23%, while those who were very unlucky and bought at the high are down almost 25%.
Wild!
#markets #investors #investing @SpaceX

[Grant Cardone @GrantCardone]

Marketing & content are not magic pills or short cuts ——

[Molly O’Shea @MollySOShea]

NEW: Private Jets 101 — Should you buy the $75M+ Global 8000?

SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Cerebras, Cursor.. we're in the biggest wealth event of all time, with $4T+ in combined value

The most sought-after next step is flying private.

I flew Van Nuys to SF on a Challenger 350 w/ Craft ( Part 135 charter company) founder Israel Slodowitz (@israelslod) to break down what flying private actually costs

We cover:
› Who flies more: Elon, Sergey Brin, Jensen, Alex Karp, Taylor Swift?
› PJ shortage?!
› Charter vs jet card vs fractional vs own
› A G650 that sold in one hour
› What a jet really costs per year
› Why capital gains wealth can't write off a jet
› The $10M deduction w/ $2M down (+recapture trap)
› Hidden fees, safety gaps, & first-timer mistakes that cost the most
› Does flying private actually cure jet lag?
› Starlink

Video also features Captain Raz Matus.

𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒
(00:00) Israel Slodowitz, Founder & CEO of Craft
(00:58) The state of Private Aviation in 2026
(04:09) Why first time buyers are buying the biggest planes
(05:14) A coming shortage of private jets
(06:00) The Private Jet size chart nobody explains
(08:26) When does it make sense to buy vs. charter?
(11:24) The real cost of a $75M jet
(13:30) Breaking down prices by jet category
(15:07) Charter vs. Jet card vs. Fractional ownership
(19:31) Inside Craft's exchange fund model
(25:33) The most economical way to fly private
(26:24) Alex Karp's $17M flight bill
(28:01) How Aircraft financing actually works
(29:25) The Biggest mistakes people make buying a plane
(30:23) What to ask before you buy any Private Jet
(33:48) The best part of being a Pilot
(34:38) The Biggest misconception about Private Aviation
(35:48) How Starlink changed the business
(37:03) Why Commercial WiFi is so far behind
(42:12) The real causes of aircraft downtime
(43:48) Do plane windows actually pop out?
(45:04) Why jet prices are climbing as supply shrinks
(47:25) How to avoid buying the wrong Private Jet
(48:58) The Tax Loophole behind $75M Private Jets
(58:52) Biggest Health hacks while flying
(1:00:02) The Hidden fees in Chartering
(1:02:39) The Wildest onboard story
(1:03:25) Safety standards and how to vet an operator
(1:05:59) Why Pilots refuse to fly into Aspen at night
(1:07:26) The Busiest private airports in the U.S.
(1:09:39) Flying private, work culture, & the future of wealth
(1:11:15) How Captain Raz became a private pilot
(1:13:16) The real health hacks for surviving constant flying
(1:14:13) Do you actually need a flight attendant on a private jet?
(1:17:07) What to actually look for when chartering or buying a jet
(1:18:04) His favorite plane vs. the hardest one to fly
(1:21:05) The Wildest in-flight catering secret nobody admits

[martingale @ichhabb]

@sonalibasak How is their capital structure?

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

Lloyd Blankfein (former CEO of Goldman Sachs) on something most people get backwards about risk management:

"you'd think a risk manager is always trying to repress people from taking risk."

"sometimes a good risk manager has to promote the idea that people take risk. because that's what you're there for."

"if you don't take risk, you don't move forward. there's no growth."

"the alternative to never taking any risk will give you the comfort of not losing money for yourself or anybody else, but you also won't make progress."

this is true inside Goldman Sachs and it's true in trading. after recovering a drawdown, the instinct can be to cut everything and take a break. sometimes the right risk management decision is the opposite, the system is working, the drawdown is normal, and pulling back is the actual mistake.

[Atlas @crptAtlas]

Jamie Dimon predicted his own bank would go bankrupt

He was fired for it

Then that bank went bankrupt

35 minutes at Harvard

He explains why most banks make the same mistake every cycle

That is the same discipline linear regression enforces before any position is taken

Save the video

Then read the article

[Jaynit Makwana @JaynitMakwana]

Dario Amodei, anthropic's CEO, just answered the question everyone is asking. should you still learn to code:

1. coding is going away first. the AI models are doing it already. the broader task of software engineering takes longer but that's going too. if you're learning to code purely for job security, you're learning the wrong thing.

2. even at 5% of the task you're still valuable. if AI does 95% and you do 5%, you become 20 times more productive. comparative advantage is surprisingly powerful even when the gap is massive.

3. the professions with the most runway are human-centered ones. things that mix people, the physical world, and analytical skills together. he uses the radiologist example. the doctor who understands patients and context, not just reads scans.

4. critical thinking might be the most important skill of the next decade. when AI can generate anything, the ability to tell what's real from what's fake becomes rare and valuable. you don't want false beliefs. you don't want to get scammed. that's his actual advice to a 25 year old.

5. AI can make you stupider if you use it carelessly. anthropic ran studies on this. depending on how you use the model, de-skilling in coding is measurable and real. the tool doesn't cause it. carelessness does.

6. the semiconductor space is his pick for a capitalistic win in the next decade. physical world, traditional engineering, direct AI tailwind. not software but chips.

[bodila @51bodila]

Goldman Sachs called him "worst analyst in the firms history" - fired him, he went all in with last $100K and turned it into $10 billion

he predicted the biggest global crash and sold everything before it happened

in a Harvard chimpanzee lab, Fernando De Leon studying how primates trade food and power

now he uses it to read markets

in 2007 - sold everything before the crash

in 2008 - went "all in 200 times in a row" while everyone else was running

Forbes named him #40 on the Self-Made 250 - greatest living self-made Americans

bookmark & watch today ↓

[Molly O’Shea @MollySOShea]

"@elonmusk is the only person that truly could be the CEO and CTO of a company like SpaceX."

" Nobody else exists like that."

" There's never been anybody like that in the history of business."

— Former Founders Fund Partner Brian Singerman (@briansin)

[Molly O’Shea @MollySOShea]

Former Founders Fund Partner Brian Singerman on what he learned from Peter Thiel:

"Most people, they just can't push back on Peter."

"They're too scared to, or they just don't."

"But when you surround yourself with people who are extremely smart and not scared to use their own individual talents—you build something truly great.

"In other words—surrounding yourself with non-yes men.  He was and is ridiculously good at that."

[Starlink @Starlink]

Get connected with fast, reliable internet for streaming, video calls, online gaming and more.

Order online in minutes.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

... and this from Bloomberg.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

As expected, the ECB hiked rates by 25 basis points—the first increase since 2023.
It would not surprise me if the ECB were to hike again this year, highlighting a world of greater dispersion among systemically important central banks.
#economy #centralbanks #ecb #markets #inflation

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The ECB is expected to initiate interest rate hikes today.
While this may draw criticism from some given the current growth context, the Bank actually has little choice.
Unlike the Fed’s dual mandate of inflation and employment, the ECB has a single mandate: price stability.
#ECB #centralbanks #Inflation #Economy

[Loofy @Loofyb0i]

Scott Bessent was answering questions about the bond market when Trump called him to the Situation Room.

came back two hours later. finished the interview.

20 years at Soros. CIO. own macro fund. now US Treasury.

"the crowd is right 85% of the time. when things turn - that's when you make real money"

53-min. March 2026.

bookmark and watch it today

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

US headline CPI inflation was in line with the consensus forecast, resulting in the first 4%-handle (4.2%) in three years. Core inflation was softer than expected, suggesting limited spillover in May.
#economy #inflation #markets