We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees
If
by Rudyard Kipling
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
This is extremely important to understand.
The birth rate you see in the West is the BLENDED number of ~90% who have a fertility rate half that of replacement and ~10% who have a birth rate double that of replacement.
Demographics is destiny.
Adam Smith’s most famous sentence remains one of the clearest statements in all of social science:
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”
The point is simple and profound. We do not rely on the kindness of strangers to put food on the table. We rely on their self-interest. The butcher supplies meat because he profits by doing so. The baker rises early because customers will pay for bread. Their desire to improve their own condition leads them, without any central direction, to serve ours.
This is the central mechanism of a market economy. Self-interest, channelled through voluntary exchange, produces cooperation on a vast scale. No one has to love their customers or share their political views. They only have to respond to incentives. The result is a system that regularly feeds, clothes, and houses millions of people who will never meet.
Many on the left still struggle to accept this. Self-interest is treated as morally suspect - a form of greed that should be restrained or replaced by appeals to solidarity and collective purpose. The preference is for systems that rely on moral exhortation or state direction rather than on the everyday pursuit of personal advantage. Yet the historical record is clear: societies that suppress self-interest in the name of higher motives tend to produce shortages, stagnation, and coercion. Societies that allow people to benefit from serving others tend to produce abundance.
Smith’s insight is not a celebration of selfishness. It is a recognition of reality. People are more reliable when they can improve their own lives by improving the lives of others. That simple alignment of interests remains the most powerful engine of social cooperation ever discovered.
@stevenmarkryan It was a really good watch. I particularly enjoyed his defence of DOGE and the concept of trying to curtail government waste and abuse of taxpayer money. Can’t believe she was actually against this lol
We estimate Micron will report over the next 4 unreported quarters (NTM) $254 billion in revenue and over the subsequent 4 quarter another $310 billion in revenue. Micron's market value is currently $920 billion at $810 per share. @MicronTech
This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year.
Market seems to be reacting to a few things:
- A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand
- NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular
- NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing
- China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway
Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously.
Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today.
As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today.
Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern?
$MU $SNDK $INTC $NVDA $AMD