@quetzal_rainbow@ChazakielDoremi and anyway, supposing the problem _were_ so tractable, here's something strictly better than one-boxing: flip 100 fair coins. iff ≤49 of them are tails, take both boxes.
@quetzal_rainbow@ChazakielDoremi then we're at a situation where what you do in the room influences p. imo it's inadmissible to then treat p as an independent parameter to decide your choice. the very knowledge that you might attribute a probability to an event changes the prob of the event? here be dragons
@quetzal_rainbow@ChazakielDoremi did the predictor know you would flip the coin? p = 0.5 all along? but only for you? what about me, if i always two-box, and predictor knows: p ≈ 1 for me? so p is different for different people?
@quetzal_rainbow@ChazakielDoremi i don't think "your choice was predicted correctly" is an event with a well-defined probability (p). consider: walk into the room. what is p? flip a fair coin to decide how many boxes to take. what is p now?
@HeNordlinder@Aella_Girl but since we're trying to identify them with individual rows, we only care about P(is any random row), not P(in released dataset), so the dataset size cancels out, right?
(Cognitive behavioral therapy enjoyer I just cut off in traffic) Think positively. He is probably in a rush for a reason. Maybe he’s late for a job interview. Maybe his wife is giving birth
Me: I’m da king of da highway
@HeNordlinder@Aella_Girl i'm confused, how would the prior change for a given row? the probability of being anywhere in the subsample is 3.6%, but for a specific row it's still just reciprocal of original sample size, right?
@Aella_Girl@sparr0 no lower than the odds of that row being your friend before you took the subset. if i shuffle a deck of cards, then draw 5, is any given ace in my hand less likely to be the ace of hearts than if i had drawn the whole deck into my hand?
@EigenGender@Aella_Girl i don't think this is true. look at bayes rule: P(row is sue | row has sue's answers) = P(any random row is sue) / P(any random row has sue's answers). neither of those changes when you discard data.
today at the passport agency:
very serious passport lady: hi sweetie, can you tell me who these two adults that brought you here are?
6yo, deadpan: i have no idea
@olivine_stan i'm always saying incredibly stupid things to my gf and then 2 weeks later it'll come up and i'll be like that's incredibly stupid there's no way i said that