Azerbaijan’s opposition leader Ali Karimli goes on trial in Baku for an alleged "attempted coup". Speaking from prison, Karimli says the charges against him are "entirely fabricated and politically motivated" and warned that he risked assassination. https://t.co/cEu5M17TgR
What really happened at the Aliyev–Putin meeting in Dushanbe?
Who made concessions, and who walked away with gains or losses?
First, let’s clarify one point: contrary to claims circulating online, Putin did not apologise again. He said:
“Even during our very first phone call at the time, I not only apologised because the tragedy occurred in Russian airspace, but also expressed my deepest condolences to the families of the victims.”
As this quote makes clear, Putin was merely referring back to the apology he made shortly after our aircraft was shot down. He said nothing new.
At that time, Azerbaijani society had rejected this apology as “worse than the deed itself.”
So why has the simple recollection of that same apology—previously dismissed and justified only because the tragedy occurred “in Russian airspace”—now caused euphoria among those supporting the Azerbaijani authorities?
Among Putin’s remarks to Aliyev in Dushanbe, the only one that could even loosely be read as a concession to Azerbaijan was his partial acknowledgment of Russia’s Air Defence Forces’ role in downing our plane. But even this self-evident truth—known to the entire world—was presented in a distorted and evasive manner.
Putin said:
“First, the aircraft in the sky at that time was a Ukrainian drone. On the night of the tragedy, we were tracking three drones that crossed the border of the Russian Federation. Second, there were technical malfunctions within Russia’s air defence system itself.”
This is the full extent of Putin’s reluctant, carefully diluted admission of Russian involvement—an “acknowledgment” that borders on denial.
Yet even this half-confession was enough for Aliyev to thank him once again. Words that primarily serve to shield the Russian soldiers responsible from accountability were somehow enough to trigger waves of celebration among the regime’s loyalists and troll networks in Baku.
Now, let’s examine Aliyev’s concessions:
1.First, nine months ago, Aliyev rejected this same apology as insufficient. Now, merely hearing it recalled nine months later, he accepted it with satisfaction and declared the matter closed.
2.Second, he made no demand for accountability for those responsible for downing the aircraft, who continue to evade justice in Russia.
3.Third, he failed to raise the issue of the ongoing mass repression of Azerbaijanis in Russia.
4.Fourth, despite Russian officials having threatened Azerbaijan dozens of times over the past four months with carrying out a “special military operation” on our territory, Aliyev made no attempt to use this tense moment to distance Azerbaijan from Moscow’s orbit. Instead, Azerbaijan continues to behave as if nothing has happened—remaining active within the CIS, staying aligned with Russia, and providing state-funded Russian-language education to hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani students in 340 public schools.
Putin himself revealed the essence of their renewed understanding when he said during the meeting:
“On most issues, our interests coincide.”
And what are those coinciding interests?
As I have repeatedly explained—also in international media—Aliyev and Putin share a mutual goal: that the “club of international authoritarians” neither weakens nor collapses; that Russia maintains a foothold in the South Caucasus to counter the West’s growing influence; that Aliyev remains in power to obstruct the region’s path toward European integration; and that both autocrats coordinate their efforts against the global movement toward democracy.
As is clear, none of these shared interests serve Azerbaijan’s national interests.
What was discussed in Dushanbe—and “aligned through mutual concessions”—were not the interests of nations, but of regimes. Both leaders share one overriding priority: to prolong the lifespan of their personal rule, even at the expense of their states and their peoples.
FRI: Учитывая нынешнее положение Азербайджана, его ключевую роль в региональной политике, зависимость Запада от поставок нефти и газа из Азербайджана (или транзитом через него), а также улучшение отношений с США, видите ли вы перспективы политических перемен внутри страны, или власть Алиева сохранится еще надолго?
- Я уверен, что нынешнее жесткое авторитарное правление в Азербайджане не сможет существовать еще долгие годы. Прежде всего, завершение войны между Азербайджаном и Арменией, а также ухудшение отношений стран региона с Россией создают благоприятные условия для интеграции всего Южного Кавказа в Европейский союз. Считаю, что именно сейчас ЕС, США и НАТО должны проводить более активную и динамичную политику для ускорения интеграции региона с Западом.
В условиях резкого обострения отношений между Россией и Европой оставаться «нейтральным» соседом России и при этом не интегрироваться в Европу — это не только бесперспективно, но и опасно для государства. Чем агрессивнее становятся имперские амбиции России по отношению к Азербайджану, тем больше у власти возникает потребность в поддержке Запада. Именно поэтому ЕС должен выстраивать отношения с Баку, не снижая своих стандартов в области прав человека и демократических реформ.
Последний доклад Госдепартамента ясно показал: уважение к правам человека и свободам остается важным для нынешней администрации США, а значит, именно у президента Трампа сегодня есть наибольшие возможности оказать влияние на Алиева. Я уверен, что американские сенаторы и конгрессмены, выступающие за демократию, это понимают и в ближайшие месяцы и годы будут активнее работать с администрацией Трампа по вопросу политзаключенных в Азербайджане.
Тем не менее мою надежду на перемены определяют прежде всего внутренние факторы. Да, сегодня репрессивная среда не дает возможности для выражения народной воли: митинги запрещены, независимая пресса и гражданское общество уничтожены, оппозиция подавлена, выборы фальсифицируются. Но народ крайне недоволен властью. Страна управляется катастрофически плохо. Национальные ресурсы сосредоточены в руках узкой группы коррупционеров. В обществе — глубокое социальное расслоение: небольшая группа обогащается, в то время как подавляющее большинство населения нищает.
22 года пребывания Алиева у власти доказали: у него не было никакой экономической стратегии. Все эти годы страна жила исключительно за счет экспорта нефти, а в последние годы — нефти и газа. Как двадцать лет назад, так и сегодня 90% экспорта Азербайджана составляют нефть и газ. Экономика не была диверсифицирована. За последние шесть лет объем экспорта нефти сократился на 40%. Правительство не имеет ни одного внятного плана, чтобы компенсировать падение нефтяных доходов. Дефицит бюджета оно пытается покрывать примитивными методами — за счет роста штрафов с граждан.
В стране острые социальные проблемы. Несмотря на уничтожение независимой прессы, люди узнают правду через социальные сети. Они видят, что страна управляется из рук вон плохо, что царят несправедливость и беззаконие. Народ недоволен и хочет перемен. Авторитарная система, построенная на нефтяных доходах, больше не в состоянии самоподдерживаться. Режим исчерпал себя. Поэтому я убежден: демократические перемены неизбежны, и однажды народ Азербайджана громко и единодушно заявит о своем стремлении к демократии.
https://t.co/cS22GPw5yD
Лидер Народного фронта Азербайджана Али Керимли: «Если Трамп захочет, он может добиться от Алиева освобождения всех 375 политзаключенных» https://t.co/k5Qf8VEYkK
Достижение мирного соглашения между Азербайджаном и Арменией создаст благоприятную основу для интеграции всего Южного Кавказа с Европой и Западом. Мы ожидаем от ЕС инициатив, которые ещё теснее свяжут Южный Кавказ с Европой.
Для народа Азербайджана отсутствие постоянного мира с Арменией означало не только угрозу войны. Власти Ильхама Алиева использовали военное положение и как оправдание для ограничения политических прав и свобод, и как предлог для сохранения авторитарного правления. После того как обе эти отговорки — российское влияние и угроза новой войны — исчезли, наш народ теперь ожидает, что за миром в Азербайджане последует процесс демократизации.
Наш народ считает, что возросшее влияние Запада во главе с США на Азербайджан должно быть использовано и для поддержки освобождения 375 политических заключённых в стране, восстановления деятельности свободной прессы, обеспечения свободы собраний и проведения избирательной реформы.
https://t.co/FmS2GkwM6B
As the Israel-Iran war continues, it leads to greater tragedies each day. Every day, many civilians also fall victim to the conflict. Civilian infrastructure—particularly urban infrastructure and the fuel-energy complex—is increasingly being targeted. As children and innocent people are killed and residential buildings are destroyed, mutual hatred intensifies. This growing hostility lays the groundwork for the war to escalate into a bloodier, more ruthless, and larger-scale phase.
In Azerbaijani society, opinions about the war unfolding in our neighborhood are not uniform.
Part of our population sympathizes with Iran as a neighboring state. Due to shared history, cultural ties, and the religious affinity of a significant portion of our people, these individuals strongly object to Iran being subjected to heavy bombardment.
However, another segment of our population holds favorable views of Israel, which openly supported Azerbaijan during the Second Karabakh War. They emphasize that Iran's nuclear program poses an existential threat to Israel and remind us that Iranian authorities have at times also threatened Azerbaijan.
The broader majority of the Azerbaijani population, however, views the Israel-Iran war through the lens of Tabriz and our compatriots living in South Azerbaijan. If Tabriz is devastated, no one in Azerbaijan will smile. If the 30–40 million South Azerbaijanis living in Iran are content, that happiness will resonate with us as well.
In a society like Azerbaijan's—where so many different opinions and perspectives intersect—I believe there are at least three points on which we, as a nation, can reach a consensus:
1. This war must not escalate further and must never, under any circumstances, spill over into our country.
2. Civilians must not die in this war, and another humanitarian disaster must be prevented. Sadly, in any war, civilian casualties cannot be entirely avoided. However, during the Second Karabakh War, the Azerbaijani army proved that war can be waged without destroying residential buildings. Therefore, both countries must avoid targeting residential areas with rockets and bombs.
3. Before the war, promising peace talks were underway between the U.S. and Iran. Both sides had stated they were close to a positive outcome. These negotiations must be resumed, mutual compromises must be found, and this war must be ended as soon as possible.
Today is a great day of celebration in Azerbaijan.
It is the 107th anniversary of the founding of the Azerbaijani state. But today is not only a national holiday—it is also a Republic Day in our Azerbaijan.
This is because, 107 years ago, Azerbaijan’s founding fathers didn’t just declare the country’s independence—they also established it as a democratic republic. In 1918, the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic became one of only 25 states in the world at the time recognized as democratic.
A multiparty parliamentary system was created, national minorities were granted representation in parliament, press freedom was established, and women were granted the right to vote—well ahead of many Western nations.
Unfortunately, the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic lasted only two years before being occupied by Bolshevik Russia. Yet its legacy remains one of the most cherished chapters of our national history.
Today, members of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA) gathered in Novxanı—about 30 kilometers from Baku—at the monument to Mammad Amin Rasulzade to mark this holiday.
Rasulzade, Chairman of the National Council that founded the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, was the leader of the founding generation and is regarded as one of the principal architects of our state. Today’s undemocratic regime in Azerbaijan views the legacy of the Democratic Republic—and Rasulzade himself—with hatred and envy. They see republican values as a threat to their dynastic rule.
Despite being the founder of our state, Rasulzade has no monument in the capital, Baku. In contrast, Heydar Aliyev—the founder of the current authoritarian regime—has hundreds of statues across the country.
The only monument to Rasulzade stands in his birthplace of Novxanı, erected in 1992 when the PFPA was in power. That is why, every year on May 28, democratic forces in the country choose to celebrate Independence and Republic Day in Novxanı, in front of Rasulzade’s sole statue.
Repression in Azerbaijan is currently at its peak. There are now more than 360 political prisoners in the country.
All forms of peaceful assembly have been completely banned for the past six years.
The regime tolerates gatherings at the Rasulzade monument only on the condition that the opposition does not issue public calls for people to attend. Were we to openly mobilize supporters, even these commemorations in Novxanı would be banned.
Nevertheless, without any public call from me or the PFPA leadership, thousands of our members gathered today to demonstrate their commitment to republican values and democracy.
Addressing the PFPA activists during this event, I reaffirmed that despite the harsh repression facing the Azerbaijani opposition, we remain resolute in our fight for freedom and democratic change.
I expressed my firm belief that, in the end, freedom and democracy will prevail in our country.
This has now gone too far... Ilham Aliyev is directly targeting individuals close to me through his security apparatus. Another one of my bodyguards and a Popular Front Party (PFPA) activist Novruz Taghiyev, and Rashad Aliyev, a fellow party activist who used his own car to take me to various events, have also been detained. That brings the number of PFPA activists who either accompanied me to events or drove me there and have been arrested in the past two months to eight.
Through this campaign, Ilham Aliyev is sending a clear message to PFPA members: "It’s dangerous to stand by Ali Karimli—stay away from him!" It seems there may even be serious provocation plans being prepared against me personally.
Today, during the court session of Tofig Yagublu, the police once again instigated a provocation. While I was giving a statement to the press, police officers began aggressively shoving and dispersing people who were waiting in front of the courthouse. They pushed my deputy, Fuad Gahramanli, with such force that the female journalists standing near him were nearly knocked down. To prevent further escalation, I cut my statement short.
This is Ilham Aliyev's version of political competition. No functioning democracy in the world would treat its opposition this way. If Aliyev believes that a strong government is one that weakens its political rivals through unlawful arrests, he is mistaken. A confident government that does not fear political competition would never act like this. Such blatant and excessive repression does not show strength—it reveals fear of free and fair competition.
Meydan TV has been occupied, but it has not surrendered.
Today marks the 12th anniversary of the founding of Meydan TV, which has written its name in bold letters into the history of our country’s free press. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the Meydan TV team are spending this significant day behind bars. The entire team of Meydan TV in Azerbaijan has been arrested. The charges brought against the Meydan TV team are unlawful and fabricated.
The Meydan TV team has been subjected to repression because it broke the Aliyev regime’s monopoly over the media, gave voice to people whose rights were violated, presented different and alternative viewpoints to society, and exposed government corruption, official arbitrariness, and incompetent governance.
Even in detention, the Meydan TV team has preserved its spirit of resistance and its commitment to the principles of free press. A small group of journalists living abroad is continuing Meydan TV’s work, albeit with difficulty.
I wholeheartedly congratulate the Meydan TV team on the 12th anniversary of the establishment of this media platform. I wish for their prompt release and for them to be able to pursue their beloved profession of journalism without hindrance.
After the Azerbaijani government destroyed all examples of a free press in the country, it is now targeting and imprisoning those who are active on social media by fabricating charges against them.
Ulviya Ali was an employee of Voice of America radio. After the Azerbaijan office of Voice of America was shut down, Ulviya Ali was left unemployed. Despite not working anywhere, she continued to shed light on the trials of political prisoners and bring attention to their issues through her Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) accounts.
Ulviya Ali was falsely accused and arrested two weeks ago in connection with the fabricated Meydan TV case. Working at Meydan TV, of course, is not a crime. Ten professional Azerbaijani journalists have been arrested on false charges related to the Meydan TV case. However, Ulviya Ali has never been a staff member of Meydan TV. Therefore, her arrest in connection with this case is entirely baseless. The real reason for her arrest, in my opinion, is her continuation of independent journalism through her social media accounts and her efforts to defend political prisoners in Azerbaijan.
Recently, Ulviya Ali described in detail how she was arrested, how money allegedly obtained through smuggling was planted in her home, and the illegalities and violence she was subjected to during her arrest. These accounts have been made public through her friends.
Ulviya Ali’s statements that she was threatened with rape twice in one day by police and that she was punched in the head seven times by an officer have caused a significant public outcry and widespread condemnation in Azerbaijani society. Her letter has become one of the most widely shared posts on Azerbaijani social media in recent days. The public has been horrified by this lawlessness and police brutality. The opposition and social media activists are demanding that those responsible for the crimes against the young journalist Ulviya Ali be held accountable. If the Aliyev government does not punish the police officers who committed crimes against Ulviya Ali, it will once again confirm that police violence, unlawful arrests, and torture are not the rogue actions of individual officers or agencies, but official state policy.
There is no legal basis to keep Tofig Yagublu in detention following tomorrow’s Court of Appeals hearing. He must be released. Tofig Yagublu was unjustly imprisoned as a result of fabricated charges. During the trial at the Baku Court for Grave Crimes, he completely dismantled the accusations brought against him and proved that those who arrested him were, in fact, committing a crime themselves.
The Azerbaijani public does not view Tofig Yagublu as a criminal. On the contrary, he is widely regarded as one of the leading figures in the fight for democracy and a true national hero.
International observers also followed his trial and became convinced that the charges against him were politically motivated and baseless. It is no coincidence that the European Union’s External Action Service, the U.S. State Department, the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission of the U.S. Congress, and numerous international human rights organizations have called on the Azerbaijani government to release Tofig Yagublu and all other political prisoners.
Keeping Tofig Yagublu behind bars is not only unlawful—it is also irrational from the perspective of the government’s own interests. Even many ordinary citizens, who are not openly involved in political life, criticize the Aliyev regime for his imprisonment and demand his release.
The past 17 months have clearly shown that the decision to jail Tofig Yagublu was a grave mistake. Tomorrow’s Court of Appeals hearing presents an excellent opportunity to correct this error and take a step back from injustice.
We demand freedom for Tofig Yagublu and for all political prisoners unjustly imprisoned by the Aliyev regime!
One of the key aims behind the mass arrests and political repression in Azerbaijan is to distract public attention from the country’s deepening social and economic crisis.
Independent economists estimate that for the past four years, the population has been living under sustained annual inflation of 20–30%.
Several times a year, the State Tariff Council hikes government-controlled prices — including petrol, diesel, natural gas, electricity, water, heating, and public transportation fares, including metro access.
Meanwhile, market-driven prices continue to rise on a weekly, monthly basis.
Because domestic production is critically underdeveloped, Azerbaijan relies heavily on imports to meet almost all of its consumption needs. Nearly 100% of vehicles, spare parts, household appliances, electronics, machinery, and industrial equipment are imported. The same is true for most medicines and medical supplies. Even 70–80% of food and light industrial goods are brought in from abroad.
In 31 years of rule, first by Heydar Aliyev and now Ilham Aliyev, the regime has deliberately stifled the development of a real economy. Despite Ilham Aliyev’s frequent proclamations about economic diversification, little meaningful progress has been made. The absence of rule of law, the lack of free competition and an independent judiciary, combined with systemic corruption and monopolies at the highest levels of government, have crushed entrepreneurship and blocked the growth of the non-oil sector.
As was the case 20–25 years ago, over 90% of Azerbaijan’s exports still come from oil and gas. Yet oil production continues to decline — falling by another 20% over the past five years. More recently, the global drop in oil prices has further intensified domestic social pressures.
The Aliyev regime’s crackdown on political dissent is a direct response to the collapse of its socio-economic policies. As living standards deteriorate month by month and public frustration mounts, the government doubles down on repression — using mass arrests to distract, and fear of violence and imprisonment to maintain control.
But this model is not sustainable. The wave of democratic change must reach Azerbaijan too. Thousands of brave Azerbaijanis continue to resist — often at the cost of their freedom, sometimes their lives — to bring that future closer.
Dostlar, "Tofiq Yaqublu başda olmaqla siyasi məhbuslara azadlıq!" tələbilə mitinq təyin etmək niyyətindəyik.
AXCP və Milli Şura strukturlarında müzakirələr başa çatmaq üzrədir.