ivan arreguín-toft

also on bluesky-editor, russia matters project, the belfer center for science & international affairs, harvard kennedy school

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

it's actually a more interesting question than most realize: i'm certain SOME of #Bibi's war cabinet have no problem with intent, but capability's another thing entirely (can't assume the capability to win battles = capability to "kill every #palestinian"). much danger in failure

[Clendob45 @clendob45]

@imarreguintoft UChicago '99 here, took JJM's Great Power Politics seminar, he's written letters for me, and I think of him as a good person. But: I don't think the intentionality of WW II Naziism is present in contemporary Israel. Israel *could* kill every Palestinian; the Nazis *would* have.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

sadly, foreign countries that hate #America & #Israel too often have good reasons. & FWIW, monica & i were both gifted, twice, with incredible tours of Israel—where we came to admire its people & understand their security concerns—paid for by the Israeli government

[Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms]

It’s ironic Groypers like Joe Kent, Tucker Carlson & John Mearsheimer constantly whine about Israeli infiltration of America when foreign countries that hate America are objectively the real problem. In academe there’s no Israel money unlike Qatar which pays faculty salaries.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

it's still available from Cambridge University Press, or at https://t.co/fHtINwJoWf: https://t.co/Mf9KaRNokn

[Kaushik Deka @Kaushik_2016]

@McFaul @imarreguintoft Looks really interesting. Where can I get a copy?

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

thanks! the book's core argument is that the interaction of the strategies opponents choose can overwhelm material expectations of victory and defeat. I explain both the puzzling fact of Davids beating Goliaths about 30% of the time in 200 years, & the trend.

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

At a recent book talk, someone gifted me this book by @imarreguintoft . Looks interesting.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

it's a terrific point, so maybe the point is to underline that connection: that #Putin is in fact the aggressor. understand that the #Kremlin has had a great deal of success in #FIMI #disinformation operations aimed at making #Russia look like the true peace-seeking victim

[Jussi Ala-Olla 🇫🇮🇪🇺💙🇺🇦 @AlaJussi]

@WarintheFuture The end of war simultaneously means end of Putin so I personally feel a quite suspicious for russia to grap this offer. Why would they, Ukraine was just trying the first target

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

yeah i don't either Max, though i know i should just 2 tap far-right zeitgeist. still, reading through the river of mostly far-right & conspiracy s*hit X has become, just to read people i respect (& sometimes disagree with) has been enough for me. don't get how you find the time!

[Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms]

@imarreguintoft I don’t watch Fox, ironically, sounds like you do.

[Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture]

“On pretty much every measure, Putin is failing and he doesn't really have a lot of options moving forward." Listen to my conversation with @samroggeveen as we discuss my new report on the West’s systemic failure to learn from modern war @LowyInstitute https://t.co/fwQ34cYnTd

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

@WW3finalboss #zaluzhnyi is simply citing #Putin's own words, which #Ukrainians have been familiar with since before 2014, but which the rest of the world has largely ignored because it's so rare and so extreme: it's what #Rome did to #Carthage after it won the 2nd #Punic War

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

what's the relative stress on the federal budget of "benefits 2 people who entered illegally" & say, military spending? or funding #Trump's DC vanity projects? his family has doubled its net worth in his first 1.5 years in office, & he's not done w the 1.8 B slush fund either

[Rand Paul @RandPaul]

We are nearly $40 trillion in debt. Working families are stretched thin. And Washington is still sending federal benefits to people who entered this country illegally. 

My End Welfare for Non-Citizens Act supports American citizens instead of rewarding those who came to the U.S. illegally. This is basic fiscal responsibility, and it is long overdue.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

military failure 2 learn has a long & unhappy history. for a wonderful review of, e.g., the U.S. #Navy's struggle to understand the importance of #convoy duty as opposed to #battleship campaigns, see #Cohen & #Gooch, Military Misfortunes: The Anatomy of Failure in War, Chapter 4.

[Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture]

“On pretty much every measure, Putin is failing and he doesn't really have a lot of options moving forward." Listen to my conversation with @samroggeveen as we discuss my new report on the West’s systemic failure to learn from modern war @LowyInstitute https://t.co/fwQ34cYnTd

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

the biggest threat 2 #America today is the idea that different "kinds of people" should b treated differently. #Trump considers himself & family above the law, so when they break the law, any attempt to call them 2 account is called 'weaponization.' same is true 4 his supporters

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

classic hallmark of a far-right gov. is "ipse dixit:" even though #Israel's choices in #Gaza after Oct. 7 met all the legal criteria for #genocide, Israel's most far-right government EVER repeatedly responds with "it isn't genocide because we SAY it isn't." good luck w that #Bibi

[Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms]

University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer uses the same talking points in constantly likening Israeli counterterrorism to the Nazi Holocaust.

Make no mistake, it is a form of Holocaust denial.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

2/& efforts to acknowledge the extraordinary & very real contributions to our #civilizations of #women & people of color are called "#hatred of [white] [#Christian] [#males]," or anti-free-speech. if there IS a truth, it's that #monocultures don't work: go #diversity!

[Kevin Bass @kevinnbass]

The truth is called hateful in Belgium. Therefore speaking it is against the law.

This is more frightening than calling the truth "misinformation". They have stopped pretending completely. They are openly admitting that they have criminalized the truth.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

really there is no #Truth, there's only how you wish to be remembered. support for the idea that there was once a great "#civilization" that's now been destroyed by "foreigners" is only possible if you ignore all the history of others' (e.g. women, people of color) contributions

[Kevin Bass @kevinnbass]

The truth is called hateful in Belgium. Therefore speaking it is against the law.

This is more frightening than calling the truth "misinformation". They have stopped pretending completely. They are openly admitting that they have criminalized the truth.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

we in the argument business call this a "straw man." only a tiny minority of advocates for trans persons focus on sex (female), instead most focus on #gender identity (woman). so @jk_rowling is tilting at the 3% who claim, unreasonably, that "biological woman" is made up.

[J.K. Rowling @jk_rowling]

Being biologically female means having a body that is observably organised to produce large gametes (eggs), as opposed to a body organised to produce small gametes (sperm). A woman is female whether her eggs have been fertilised or not. A man can never be female.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

some truth to that Max, but the key is your time frame: short term, it looks like #Hamas screwed itself very badly (good!), but long term, it's both widened & intensified the demand to kill #jews & destroy #Israel: & sooner or later, demand always results in a supply

[Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms]

Terrorism tends to backfire politically. But yes October 7 was the ultimate own-goal.

[Josh Wine @joshwine1]

@MaxAbrahms Really?
You think that 20-30,000 Jihadis killed by Israel aren't replaceable?
It would be an own-goal if it weakened support for genocidal jihadi ideology. Not obvious at all that that is what happened.

[Asi Burak @aburak]

And yet it achieved a lot of the strategic goals for Sinwar. Unfortunately. To understand it you need to think like him- Saudi normalization dead... israel isolated... Palestinian cause goes from neglected to the most talked about topic in the world... Israel stranded in multiple fronts. In the eyes of Hamas, the sacrifice is justified.

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

so many things today's #GOP is great at! today's entry? #projection: accuse your opponents of doing what you're doing (#weaponizing #DOJ) even though they aren't (& haven't ever) done it. maybe E. Jean Carrol will get compensated in a post-liar admin: https://t.co/xSeHqKmzxW

[ivan arreguín-toft @imarreguintoft]

Ted, they want ordinary Americans to be able to afford 2 raise a family. That’s what u say the #GOP wants too. But ALL your policies push that farther away. Your core idea is “make the rich richer” and that’s why the idea of 1 person, 1 vote freaks y’all out

[Ted Cruz @tedcruz]

Don't let the Democrats fool you. They do not care about gas prices.

Under Joe Biden, gas was over $6, and the Democrats were actively trying to ban the internal combustion engine.

We break it down on Verdict: https://t.co/XF43uCHET0