Jason Keller

Electrical / firmware / software engineer, Kubernetes guru, Jeep enthusiast, metal fabricator, builder, husband, and dad *** NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

[Jason Keller @imuni4fun]

$TMC @themetalsco @gtbgtb

Hear me out...

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: Starlink's mask just came off. They are looking to go directly to consumers with Starlink Mobile globally.

This is why AT&T and Verizon welcomed T-Mobile to their satellite joint venture with AST SpaceMobile. This is why AST SpaceMobile, with the only true space-based cellular broadband solution, holds such tremendous strategic value for MNOs and others like Google, Apple and eventually Amazon.

STAY FOCUSED™️

[Figgy1m @figgy1million]

$TMC How many times in a lifetime do you get the chance to invest at the birth of a new industry (DSM) and alongside a company building one of the largest critical minerals refineries in America?
#DSM @themetalsco #TMC
#deepseamining #criticalminerals #polymetallicnodules
#seafloorNodules #copper #Manganese #cobalt #nickel #greenenergy

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$ASTS: Quote from AST SpaceMobile in recent article:

“None of the missions planned for the next few months are scheduled with Blue Origin,” the statement said. 

“Our satellites are designed to be launcher-agnostic, and we have agreements in place with multiple launch providers, giving us flexibility across our launch program,” AST SpaceMobile added.

[Jason Keller @imuni4fun]

@MegaLoMartDrew @ASTS_Investors @spacanpanman @MrMomTrades 🤜🤛
🍻❤️

[Figgy1m @figgy1million]

$TMC This may be one of the most MISPRICED assets in the public markets today.
Investors often underestimate the importance of a Pre Feasibility Study (PFS) in mining. A PFS is NOT speculation. It is a detailed engineering and economic framework that defines viability through production assumptions, costs, capex, and revenue under defined commodity prices.
The Metals Company published its PFS on 8/6/2025 via SEC SK 1300, estimating an NPV of approximately $26.3B under base assumptions.
With ~433M shares outstanding, that implies about $55+ per share of modeled value.
Today the market prices it at roughly ~10% of that implied value.
That $26.3B NPV is NOT static.
Since the PFS:
1. New resource zones are being integrated into updated models
2. Commodity assumptions for Ni, Cu, Co, Mn have shifted materially
3. The Brownsville refinery adds downstream value not fully reflected in the base case
Each factor is incremental UPSIDE to NPV.
The key disconnect is no longer geological. It is REGULATORY TIMING.
The market prices TMC as if commercialization may never occur, while NOAA progression through compliance and certification places the project inside formal environmental review.
This creates a valuation gap driven almost entirely by PERMIT RISK discounting.
Historically, mining equities DO NOT re rate slowly through late stage permitting. They TEND TO re price SHARPLY as uncertainty compresses, often BEFORE final approval.
AS permitting continues to advance, the market will NOT wait for final approval to re rate the asset.
Short interest of ~31M shares WILL further amplify upside during catalyst shifts.
The Brownsville refinery, if funded, could also be a MAJOR inflection point.
It may support a scenario approaching ~1.5 x current base case NPV, or roughly $83 per share under favorable assumptions. Today, not 2 years from now.
More importantly, it is not just incremental. It structurally transforms the project into an end to end industrial chain.
That matters because it:
1. REDUCES downstream execution risk
2. STRENGTHENS commercialization credibility
3. ACCELERATES re rating toward production reality.
In effect, a funded refinery begins to shift valuation toward partial commercialization de risk, as refining capacity is often viewed as the missing bridge between extraction approval and industrial scale production.
@themetalsco #DSM #Criticalminerals #copper #REE
#metalsprocessing #TMC
#Nickel #cobalt #manganese

[The Metals Company @themetalsco]

NOAA Certifies TMC USA’s USA B Exploration License Application.

Read the press release: https://t.co/KkPQ7DDBTm $TMC #deepseamining

[AST SpaceMobile @AST_SpaceMobile]

Convoy complete.

BlueBird 9 has officially arrived at Cape Canaveral,  ahead of the next Falcon 9 launch campaign.  🚀🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀

Built in Texas. Broadband from space. Designed to connect directly to everyday smartphones. 🌎📶📱

#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected

[Parkash Heerani @HeeraniPK]

$ASTS Today

- The HIGHEST volume since 16th Aug, 2024.
- The HIGHEST volume in the last 648 days.
- The 5th LARGEST volume in the company's history.

A 20% up move on the highest volume in 2 years, 5th largest in history, is a clear sign of institutional accumulation at play.

Institutional ownership is already sitting at the highest level in the company's history, and on top of that, many more institutions are taking an interest following SpaceX's S-1 filings that validated much of $ASTS core thesis, its superior product, its partnership with worldwide MNOs, and its proven technology with unmodified phones.

The party has only started, and the service is not even live yet.

With such a strong accumulation signal, we should see many bigger days ahead.

[Quant @ExperimentalPar]

https://t.co/8aR0JQKhqc

[Dead Broke Investor @Deadbrokeinvest]

$TMC @themetalsco

[Jason Keller @imuni4fun]

@Staudinger333 $180 is too damn low, but it’s what we have

I used a lot of those to buy down and own more calls in spreads

Will adjust those higher if we pull back post SpaceX IPO

[Jason Keller @imuni4fun]

I just negotiated a fantastic Minecraft mining rights treaty to end all hostilities. The parties have agreed on a framework of a deal to be signed imminently. This is a great deal. One of the best. And I know deals. I should win an award for brokering this deal. The highest. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

[Jason Keller @imuni4fun]

https://t.co/q25K6dHjFy

👍

[US Oil & Gas Association @US_OGA]

Every Saturday morning I have breakfast with a bunch of old farmers.

Discussion today was population decline and replacement rate in the US.

They've come up with a very simple yet elegant solution to increase birth rates.

Bring back bench seats in pickup trucks.

[Jason Keller @imuni4fun]

Love these

Keep em coming

😂😂😂

[Ethan Brooks @alt_w_v_g]

My wife mentioned a nice private school over dinner this week
She said the campus was beautiful
I asked what's the tuition
She said we should look at it as an investment in him not a cost
I made a note
She said don't make a note
I said I always make notes
She said this isn't a deal
I said everything is a deal
She closed her eyes

She said we'd discuss it Saturday
I agreed

Saturday 7:02am
She came downstairs in her Saturday robe
Coffee in hand
I had my cargo shorts on

The dining room had been cleared
The projector was on
The analyst was at the head of the table
Quarter zip on, three iced coffees, a legal pad, and two laptops
He had been there since 6:44am

I texted him at 11:14pm Friday
The text said dining room 6:45am bring the model
He sent a thumbs up

My wife stopped in the doorway
She said what is this
I said you said you wanted to discuss it
She said this is not a discussion
I did not respond
She sat down anyway

The analyst stood
He said good morning ma'am
She did not respond
He sat back down
A printed deck in front of each seat
A fourth copy in case

Slide 1 Tuition Schedule
$38,500 per year
Thirteen years
$500,500 nominal
Before escalators
The school has raised tuition 4.2% per year for a decade
With escalators $648,000
My wife said okay
I said I'm not done

Slide 2 Opportunity Cost
Even before escalators
$38,500 invested annually
10% nominal return
S&P long-run average since 1928
By his eighteenth birthday $944,000
My wife said we can afford it
I said I know that's not the slide

Slide 3 Terminal Value at Age 65
$83 million
She was quiet

The analyst slid the sensitivity tables across the table
8% return $31 million
10% return $83 million
12% return $222 million
She did not look

She said this isn't about money
I said it's always about money
She said no it isn't
I said then what is it about
She did not answer

She said you can't put a dollar value on his teachers his classmates his environment
I said I can the analyst already did slide 6
He flipped to slide 6
She did not look

She said the school is the best in the city
I said best is a feeling
She said it produces the best students
I said the students were already the best before they got there

She said our son deserves it
I said our son deserves $83 million

My son walked in
He is five
Dinosaur pajamas
He looked at the projector
He looked at the open deck on the table
He looked at slide 3
He said are we modeling pre-tax or after-tax
The analyst opened a new tab
My wife looked at the ceiling

He said what's the discount rate
The analyst set down his pen
She closed her eyes

He said is this the same return assumption from the 529 conversation
The analyst stopped typing
He looked at me
I did not say anything

She stood up
Sat back down

He said dad can I help
I said yes
He pulled up a chair
The analyst handed him a printout
He started reading

My wife watched him read
She watched him for a long time

She said his name
He looked up
She said do you like school
He said the work is too easy and the kids don't ask questions

She did not respond
She looked at the ceiling
She walked out of the room

The analyst started packing up
He said should I follow up Monday sir
I said no follow up needed

He'll be fine

Sent from my iPhone

[Jason Keller @imuni4fun]

How many satellite companies have gone bankrupt?

Got that number in your head?

How many companies providing critical telecom infrastructure and unique critical national security technology capabilities and with enormous moats and hockey stick growth have gone bankrupt?

Got that one?

Now, how do you think valuation changes when the market realizes that $ASTS is trading at a multiple from the wrong category?

🚀🚀🚀

[AST SpaceMobile @AST_SpaceMobile]

BlueBirds 8 and 10 have officially arrived at Cape Canaveral.

Next stop: the launch pad. 🚀🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀

Built in Texas. Broadband from space. Designed to connect directly to everyday smartphones. 🌎📶📱

#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds

[Jason Keller @imuni4fun]

@spacanpanman $TMC !!

[AST SpaceMobile @AST_SpaceMobile]

The last BlueBird in the convoy is on the move.

BlueBird 9 has officially left our Texas facilities and is heading to Cape Canaveral to reunite with BlueBirds 8 and 10.

Next stop: the launch pad.🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀

Built in Texas. Broadband from space. Designed to connect directly to everyday smartphones. 🌎📶📱

#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds

[C🅰️tSE @CatSE___ApeX___]

There is a divergence between $ASTS and StarlinkMobile.

One is losing MNOs the other gaining

One is totally redesigning the one space vehicle needed to deploy the other adds more existing providers to its launcher agnostic manifest

One cuts orbital lifetime, the other adds.🐾

[Reformed Tr🅰️der @Reformed_Trader]

$ASTS closed above the breakout point and got both the RSI (14) printing over 60 and the RSI (5) printing above 80. This combo has been a consistent signal on breakouts.

The signal is more meaningful when both RSIs were at or near oversold levels previously.

*NFA