Justin Fox

Structural Engineer • Marshall ‘19 • Trying to be more like Jesus daily.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@CodyA96 I forget anyone I personally know is even on Twitter still. My replies are still a thing, just no posts I suppose.
I’m just a fantasy bro on X these days.
You should subscribe to my Patreon.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

BTJ in the BTJ role. PW in the Nabers role. - HC Liam LaFleur (probably)

[David J. Gautieri @GuruFantasyWrld]

You’re either a Brian Thomas Jr. guy or you believe in Parker Washington.

You can’t be both.

Pick your side.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@awkwardmodel @GuruFantasyWrld Agreed. But if it’s Shedeur targets, I don’t want ‘em haha! I think ideally he’s a very strong WR2 for an NFL. You don’t have to pepper him with targets, but he’ll draw coverage and will a very reliable 2nd option. We’ll have to wait and see.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@awkwardmodel @GuruFantasyWrld The injury is a good point. That helps his case a bit… My point is that if he is behind both Egbuka & freshman J Smith, with only 15% of targets, maybe we shouldn’t we be so high on him. I believe he’ll be an important NFL WR, but he won’t earn enough targets for a fantasy WR1.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@awkwardmodel @GuruFantasyWrld The Indiana game where he went 4 for 45? A 19% target share game when it mattered most?

Egbuka managed a 21.7% career target share with more career competition for targets than Tate. My point exactly.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@GuruFantasyWrld Not to mention, JSN managed a 23% share with an older Wilson and Olave, and a younger MHJ on the team.

My model has 12 guys drafted in the first two rounds with more career competition since 2017.
Of those 12, only Waddle, BTJ, Polk, AD Mitchell had worse career target shares.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@GuruFantasyWrld I don’t understand how everyone is so willing to forgive Tate’s target share because of a younger Smith. Smith had 31% and 23% shares in over the past two seasons. Tate had 19% and 15%. There’s still plenty of targets to be had.
Smith is elite, but that doesn’t excuse sub-20%.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@AdamSchefter @TheFFBallers @AndyHolloway @FFHitman @JasonMoore https://t.co/SHl7xedDo6 📈

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@RonStewart_ He comes in at 3rd most team career (adjusted) competition in my model for this years class.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@GarrettBFF @FootballStock Yes. It currently directly adds to, or subtracts from, a few overarching scores (analytics, career stats, etc.) which compile to one score. One day, I may key it into more specific metrics (receiving share, YPRR, etc.). Currently, I don’t think that’s needed.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@FootballStock TEs count for less (for the WR prospects), but it does…
I need only list all drafted WRs and TEs each year and where they were picked (and assume picks for guys like Jeremiah Smith). The formulas do the rest.
Certainly beats doing it manually for every prospect.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@LavaDoesFantasy @DynastyZoltanFF This. I think Jeanty is (Maybe. Barely.) a better prospect. So I thought this exactly. Also, when so close, give me the guy who is 1.5 years younger.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@RonStewart_ I shall never forget offering up the 1.07 and Darnold for the 1.06 to ensure I got Maye. Buddy doesn’t respond, drafts JJ, and here we are.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@GuruFantasyWrld ‘Cepts.

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@HaydenWinks Elijah Moore (by percentage)
*Jaylen Waddle (*Most impactful riser)

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@FootballStock @FFSnoog I like the consistency call.
Size is fair. But even Worthy’s weight adjusted speed score still beats out Egbuka (after his very recent 4.48 40).

Would argue it’s much closer than I’d want to believe it to be, but I’m with you.

Anyways, love your work and keep it up!

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@FootballStock @FFSnoog Curious as to what has the model much higher on Egbuka over Worthy? Ladd, agreed.
Egbuka and Worthy appear to average out similarly in a prospect model. Maybe final szn td/g, YPRR, career 1/RR? Otherwise, Worthy seemingly projects slightly ahead on paper. (I still voted Egbuka)

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@andyholloway Breakfast with Herbert at his favorite coffee shop? Let’s get this man paired up with Ladd. He’s staying in LA with the Chargers!

[Justin Fox @inJustFox]

@YZR_Fantasy @GuruFantasyWrld Have to disagree there from a purely receiving numbers standpoint. Warren should also be drafted in the BTJ range vs. the Legette range.