Is this Anthropic talent suck-up an actual thing, or something to do with my twitter bubble? I assume they aren't just massively increasing employee count relative to other labs...?
@vayzenburger@Lewis_Bollard I'd look at it as a third party - not always better than a domain expert *if you can find one*, but:
1. Often you can't (especially for more niche questions than this)
2. Even when you can "which experts" is a perennial problem. Here, activist-adjacent sources are a common bias.
@vayzenburger@Lewis_Bollard It very much depends on the market in question, but they have indeed been found to be reliable - events at 15% do roughly occur 15% of the time. This is a manifold market, so the # of bettors is important. But 88 is well within necessary parameters.
@thecaptain_nemo Are you sure it isn't an ai slop posting bot he has set up? Because that would actually be impressive, something I've mulled over for my linkedin. Best to automate slop, if slop it is regardless.
@AndyMasley I do not think this will be the case. I predict that people will still report caring about the typical things a lot more and their voting behavior will reflect that, not AI.
@DanKellyFreedom That is true, but the relevant factor for prediction making and subsequent decision-making is whether or not those negative externalities will ever *in fact* be internalized.
Those subsidies would have to be dropped, land use regulations altered, and emissions taxed.
@mattyglesias Just the opposite! Immigrant acceptance is largely an egalitarian good, so the global community should be more judgmental about free riders.
I can accept compromise about the types of systems, but not the percent of admittances.
@AaronBergman18 Seems plausible they had started with an overly restrictive threshold before out of abundance of caution, not knowing where the line is.
Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Demis Hassabis and many others have signed a letter urging Congress to increase security on orders of synthetic nucleic acids - and the equipment needed to make them - as models continue to become increasingly bio-capable.
NEWS: Screwworm has been detected in Texas, USDA confirmed - marking a serious threat to US cattle and other animals
Larvae of the parasite were found in the umbilical cord of a 3 week old calf
Screwworm was eradicated from the US in 1966