levi Wolf

17 building small ai tools and posting what happens

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@morpphhhaw This shit is so fake like how do people still fall for ts

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@Ananth7e If it's 1,7x more use its alot cus i can code wayy longer with 20x more then 1.7 extra

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@MAXdeg0 Show the after fee curve on Polymarket two sided not the architecture diagram

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@qwinsi0x Kalshi demo no realized PnL model misses NYC and Chicago by 5°F Tail story ≠ measurement.

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@ArchiveExplorer where does $300 1500/day come from? the chart in your own screenshot says +$1,482 over 90 days simulated

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@bored2boar whats the net PnL after fees on those locked pairs polymarket charges 7% taker on crypto so a 0.97 fill is 3c gross minus 3.5c round trip

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@quantscience_ did anyone run this long enough to get a realized PnL? curious how it scored against the market baseline

[levi Wolf @inveell]

built a bot for polymarket temperature markets. two months. finished measuring it this week and it doesn't work

market beats my model by 34% on RPS. i assumed that meant my data was worse, so i pulled NOAA's NBM, which is the free bias corrected forecast the serious people apparently use

market beats that as well. p = 3.8e-9 across 255 city days

then the part i didn't expect. my own model beats NBM. so the modeling was never the problem, which somehow felt worse than if it had been

two things left after that

the METAR floor. live observations that physically rule bins out, since the max can only go up. by the time i see it, 96.7% of those bins are already trading under 0.02. the market is just there first

maker instead of taker to skip the 5% fee. 0.7 to 1.1 cents lost per filled share, 462 days, every CI under zero. not close

all of it paper. never put money in

the part im keeping is the test setup. 2400 tests, mutation testing, calibration that returns nothing when n is too low. thats what stopped me on aug 14 when 4 of 5 criteria came back green and i wanted to ship it

still don't know what the market knows
#polymarket #predictionmarkets #quant

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@caydengineer i had meta raybans for the ai but its kinda useless ngl sold them after

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@hieuSSR @Cloudflare nah proton mogs

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@sattyyouneed they do tho

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@Samaytwt buddy all these would go in the junk drawer def these days

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@sigmahamster3 @ProjectAncap no its the data they are trained on @grok why are most ai models left wing?

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@Saas_addy

[levi Wolf @inveell]

does anyone else have the issue if you paste in allot of text claude cant read it for some reason sometimes it works sometimes it just doesnt

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@aisearchio It is expensive but good

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@jaychia_ You know you can change that? On how you like it

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@AmortisX @DavidOndrej1 Eu forced watermarks tho

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@venoeng @Argona0x

[levi Wolf @inveell]

@elonmusk Now it still needs to go up and more right