いんべス

Japanese ape hodling bananas, which bring him to the mars.
Let's MOASS!

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

If aliens landed in China instead of America

[いんべス @invth1]

「あなたの提案書、情報が脈略なく書かれてるだけで意図が読みとれない。読む人にも意図や前後の文脈がわかるように書き直して」

「A4じゃなくてA3で書けばいいですか？」

[いんべス @invth1]

逆神扱い

[Election Enjoyer @ElxMapping]

visits the pope → pope dies

leads Iran negotiations → talks collapse

flies to Hungary to prop up Orbán → Orbán loses in a landslide

Man’s got a streak.

[Apu @Apu_elrojo]

Siempre le ponen a las guerras el nombre del país atacado: Guerra de Irak, Guerra de Afganistán, Guerra de Irán...

Porque si le pusieran el nombre del país que ataca, todas se llamarían "Guerra de Estados Unidos".

[いんべス @invth1]

人はどうしてブーメランを自分で受け止めてしまうのだろう。

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.....

[いんべス @invth1]

この局面で日本が原油先物に介入したらアメリカからはむちゃくちゃ感謝されるんじゃなかろうか。身代わりで円が死ぬだろうけど。

[いんべス @invth1]

なんで手数料はドル建てなのに決済は元なんだ？

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The IRGC is now charging tolls, with rates starting at $1 per barrel of oil, on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, paid in Chinese Yuan or stablecoins, per Bloomberg.

The process includes:

1. To pass, ship operators must first contact an intermediary company linked to the IRGC

2. They then provide their vessel’s ownership, flag, the cargo manifest, destination, crew list, and transponder information

3. The intermediary then passes the file onto the IRGC Navy’s Hormozgan Provincial Command for background checks to ensure no link to the US or Israel

4. Iran has a ranking system of 1 to 5 for nations, with ships from countries that are seen as friendly more likely to get better terms

Once the toll is paid, the IRGC issues a permit code and route instructions for the ship to pass.

[Chef Goyardee @Whalestail33]

@MorgothsReview Art of the deal

[Amock_ @Amockx2022]

BREAKING : THIS IS ABSOLUTE IRONY 😭

Trump wanted Iranians 🇮🇷 to protest against the regime, it didn't happen

Instead, lakhs of people in US are taking out Anti Trump No Kings protest 🔥

Nightmare awaits for Trump and Israel 🥶

[いんべス @invth1]

おやおや。

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

🚨 OpenAI is promising private equity a guaranteed 17.5% return to raise fresh capital.

Sounds familiar, right?

[いんべス @invth1]

先週に比べてリテールの楽観的な見方が多いように見える月曜朝。ということは。

[Christopher Helali @ChrisHelali]

🚨 Japan to send help to open Strait of Hormuz

[いんべス @invth1]

キューバしのぎしないと！

[Mr. Nobody @MmisterNobody]

🚨CUBA IN COMPLETE BLACKOUT NO ELECTRICITY

Cuba is in a complete blackout after the electric grid shut down.

It’s now the second day with no electricity whatsoever.

This is the testing ground, isn’t it?

[いんべス @invth1]

素晴らしい

[Yohei KIKUTA / 原論文から解き明かす生成AI 8月18日発売 @yohei_kikuta]

Claude Code の言語設定は特に困ってないので設定する必要はないかと思っていましたが、古の2ちゃんねらーを憑依させたら完全に心変わりしました。

本当にありがとうございました。

[NYPrepper @nyprepper1]

⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️PENTAGON PIZZA INDEX SUDDENLY SKYROCKETING!! 770% ABOVE NORMAL AT PAPA JOHNS NEAR THE PENTAGON!!

[河野太郎 @konotarogomame]

来年度予算の政府原案が１２２兆円を超える規模になり、危機感を感じています。

我が国の政府の債務残高は１０００兆円を超える規模に膨れ上がり、ＧＤＰ比でも２００％を大きく超えています。

しかし、それだけの債務があってもこれまでは低金利が続いていたので利払費が極端に増えることはありませんでした。

それどころか１９９０年度と比べて政府の債務残高は数倍になっているにもかかわらず、利払費は減っていました。

ここで日銀の金融政策が正常化に向けて動き出し、政策金利が引き上げられるなかで、長期国債の利回りは２％を超えました。

それに伴ってこれから発行される国債の金利は上がっていきます。

これまでは金利が低く、利払費の心配もそれほどなかったため、その年の歳出をその年の税収、税外収入等でまかなうプライマリーバランスを均衡させることを目標としてきましたが、これからは利払費を含む財政収支を視野に入れた財政運営が必要になってきます。

そのためには無駄な事業を切ることはもちろん、歳出の枠の中で優先順位をつけて、歳出を切り詰めていかなければなりません。

インフレの中では税収が増え、一時的には財政が好転しているかのように見えます。

しかし、金利の上昇に伴って利払費の増加が追いかけてきて、財政状況はいずれ悪化していきます。

債務がさらに膨れ上がり、金利も上昇していくなかで利払費が増え、さらに借金をしなければ社会保障費などの必要な支出もできなくなり、借金が雪だるま式に増えていくことは防がなければなりません。

まず第一に、基金を廃止して、年度ごとにその予算が必要かどうかをしっかり見極めていくことが必要です。

基金に積む金にも金利がかかっているなかで、あらかじめこの事業にどれだけの金を使うかなどを決めておく余裕は、今の日本の財政にははっきり言ってありません。

第二に、我が国は資本主義経済、市場経済ですから、経済を発展させるのは民間部門だという考えに立ち戻らなければなりません。

いつの頃からか、政府が金を使えば経済を成長させられる、経済の次の柱となる新しい産業を育てられるという社会主義的な考え方をする政治家が増えてきました。

これだけ補助金だ、基金だといって政府の歳出を増やし、借金が増えてきたにもかかわらず、日本の成長率は低いまま、潜在的成長率も上がらず、ＧＤＰでは日本よりも人口の少ないドイツに追い越されたことをみれば、それは空想だということがわかります。

政府が金を使えば経済が成長するわけではありません。

そもそも古くは通商産業省、今の経済産業省が「国策」と称して行ってきたもので成功したものがあったでしょうか。

かつて私が勤務していた富士ゼロックスは、通産省が音頭をとったシグマ計画に参加していましたが、惨めな失敗でした。

この他にも第五世代コンピュータ、アナログＨＤテレビ、クリーンコール、原子力ルネッサンス、日の丸液晶、クールジャパン等など失敗したものは枚挙にいとまがありません。

また、中小企業支援という名目で、出資でも融資でもなく補助金として税金を湯水のごとくばら撒こうとする事業が跡を絶ちません。

そのほとんどはまともに事業の評価の公開すらしていません。

政府が金を出せば経済が動くという考えを改め、民間企業の活動を自由にするための規制改革に踏み出さなければなりません。

世界で最も高齢化が進んでいる社会である日本で、自動運転が全く進んでいないという現実を規制の失敗として直視しなければなりません。

自由民主党は「保守主義」の政党です、いや、そのはずです。

それなのに財政に関してはまるで社会主義政党のような振る舞いをするのはなぜなのでしょうか。

もっと政府の限界を認識し、民間の活力を信じる政治をするべきです。

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

The rumor says a major bank collapsed on a silver margin call at 2:47 AM December 28.

I cannot verify that.

What I can verify is more interesting.

JPMorgan filed an 8K on December 27 disclosing 4.875 billion dollars in unrealized silver losses. They flipped from 200 million ounces short to 750 million ounces long physical. The largest position reversal in the history of the silver market happened in the last 30 days and nobody on financial television said a word.

The rumor claims 34 billion in emergency Fed repos. Official data shows routine operations under 7 billion. Either the data is lagged or the rumor is wrong.

But here is what nobody is asking.

Why did JPMorgan suddenly need to own three quarters of a billion ounces of physical silver after spending 15 years on the short side. What did they see coming that made them eat a 5 billion dollar loss just to get positioned the other way.

The collapse story might be fiction.

The position flip is filed with the SEC.

One of those facts will matter more in 90 days than the other.

Stop chasing the rumor. Start asking why the smartest bank in commodities just switched sides at the worst possible price and seems fine with it.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/VZD2WlF6Ux

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

I can't believe that the once richest man on earth just bet his entire empire on ONE company.

And he has 9 days to pull it off.

SoftBank is scrambling to deliver $22.5 billion to OpenAI by December 31st.

To get there, CEO Masayoshi Son sold his ENTIRE stake in the best-performing AI stock on the planet.

Then sold billions more in other holdings.

Cut staff. Froze dealmaking. Borrowed against everything he owns.

This is the biggest all-in bet in the past few years.

And it might be the most reckless financial engineering since 2008.

Here's what's actually happening:

SoftBank promised OpenAI $40 billion back in April when the company was valued at $300 billion.

The deal had conditions. OpenAI had to convert to a for-profit structure by year-end.

They did that in October.

Now the clock is ticking. $22.5 billion must arrive in 9 days or the deal breaks.

Son already delivered $17.5 billion earlier this year.

Getting the rest is proving harder than anyone expected.

The moves Son made to raise the cash are absolutely wild:

He dumped SoftBank's entire $5.8 billion position in Nvidia.

Not trimmed. Not reduced. LIQUIDATED.

The same Nvidia that's been printing money for AI investors all year.

He sold $4.8 billion worth of T-Mobile shares.

Slashed staff across the company.

And the Vision Fund that used to write checks for everything? Dead.

Any deal over $50 million now requires Son's personal approval.

Investment managers who used to hunt for the next big thing are now working full-time on the OpenAI transaction.

But it still wasn't enough cash...

So Son went to the debt markets.

He expanded SoftBank's margin loan capacity by $6.5 billion, bringing total undrawn capacity to $11.5 billion.

All of it backed by Arm Holdings stock.

If Arm's stock drops, those loans get called. SoftBank faces margin calls. The whole thing unravels.

And the risk gets crazier.

OpenAI's valuation has tripled since April.

Started at $300 billion. Now heading toward $900 billion according to sources.

Amazon is reportedly joining the next round.

On paper, SoftBank's investment looks brilliant. A 3X return in 8 months.

But here's the thing:

OpenAI is hemorrhaging cash at a rate that makes Uber's losses look responsible.

The company generates $13 billion in annual revenue.

Impressive... right?

But they're literally projected to LOSE $74 billion by 2028.

Not break even with losses. Not approach profitability.

$74 billion in the red.

Their revenue is growing. Their losses are growing faster.

Because AI compute costs don't scale down. They scale UP.

Every new ChatGPT user costs OpenAI money.
Every API call burns cash.
Every model training run requires millions in compute.

Sam Altman told employees OpenAI is now in "code red" mode.

Pausing all other product launches to focus entirely on beating Google's Gemini.

That's the language of desperation.

And Altman's long-term vision is even more expensive.

He wants to build 30 gigawatts of AI compute capacity.

Cost: $1.4 TRILLION.

For context, that's larger than Mexico's entire GDP.

He wants to add 1 gigawat every single week.

Each gigawatt costs over $40 billion.

The math doesn't work. The business model doesn't work. The capital requirements are impossible.

But Son is betting everything anyway.

Why would he do this?

Because if it works, he owns the future.

If OpenAI becomes the infrastructure layer for the next 20 years of computing, that $22.5 billion turns into trillions.

SoftBank becomes the kingmaker of AI. Son becomes the most powerful investor in history.

But if it fails?

SoftBank vaporizes.

The Nvidia stake is gone. Can't get it back.

The T-Mobile shares are gone.

The margin loans against Arm come due.

Son has systematically dismantled his portfolio to concentrate everything into one bet.

This is the opposite of diversification.

This is the opposite of prudent risk management.

This is a founder going all-in on a vision that everyone else thinks is insane.

And he might be right.

Other investors see it too. That's why OpenAI's valuation tripled in 8 months.

BlackRock, Fidelity, and JP Morgan are all writing massive checks to private AI companies.

Databricks just raised $4 billion at a $134 billion valuation.

The entire market is betting that AI infrastructure will define the next decade.

But the difference?

They're diversifying. Spreading risk. Building portfolios.

Son put everything on one company.

The deadline is December 31st.

In 9 days, we'll know if SoftBank pulled it off.

If they deliver the $22.5 billion on time, the bet stays alive.

If they miss the deadline, the deal could collapse. The terms could change. Competitors could swoop in.

And Son will have sold the farm for nothing.

This is either:

The greatest venture bet in history.

Or the most reckless financial move since Lehman Brothers.

There's no middle ground.

Masayoshi Son doesn't do middle ground.

He bet big on Alibaba in 2000 and turned $20 million into $60 billion.

He bet big on WeWork and lost $14 billion.

Now he's betting bigger than ever.

$22.5 billion. 9 days. Everything on the line.

What would you do?

[いんべス @invth1]

30年もだけど、3ヶ月もなかなか。

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Trying to figure out your holiday gift giving this year? I have a great suggestion for you.

There are organizations like @TisBest and @DonorsChoose that will give a donation to your recipient’s favorite charity, on your behalf.

I think gifts like these are more in keeping with what the holiday season is really about, so I wanted to pass it along.