Isaac Llanes

Beef, Beer, & Jesus

[Natalie Fertig @natsfert]

I’m not crying - you’re crying

The last verse+chorus of this is 10/10 the best USA World Cup song yet.

[Football Tweet ⚽ @Footballtweet]

It's impossible to watch this and say you don't love football. 🤍

[Josh Stewart @JoshDStewart]

The OG gym teacher, english teacher marriage

[Erin Molan @Erin_Molan]

Palestinians are being brutally shot and killed… right now…

It is HORRIFIC and it’s all on camera…

It’s time to fire back up you guys… the ‘ceasefire now’, ‘stop the genocide’, ‘protect Palestinians’ types - they NEED you now… really… very seriously…

Clear the streets Western Democracies… the thousands are coming… and so they should be!

They should have always been there loudly and proudly fighting for innocents in Gaza by the way - like so many of us have been - they just accidentally marched for their killers (H_mas) - against their fellow victims (Israel) but luckily this should irrefutably clear any confusion up… 👌🙏

[Isaac Llanes @isaacllanes]

@camibrown1984 Someone submitted your post to Screencaps on https://t.co/8XtICKGSiA
😆

[Isaac Llanes @isaacllanes]

@tomsegura Tommy Bunz I’m coming to see ya again! Last time I did it was a Zanies in Nashville. Looking forward to it.

[kira 👾 @kirawontmiss]

imagine doing this over an uncontacted tribe

[Jared C. Wilson @jaredcwilson]

Your annual reminder that *8-Bit Christmas* > *A Christmas Story*

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

One bored fan made a paper airplane out of his match ticket during a UEFA Nations League match in a stadium in Germany.

The result was astounding.

[Isaac Llanes @isaacllanes]

@creation247 Friday Night Lights - Coach Taylor

[Sahil Bloom @SahilBloom]

A young statistician saved their lives.

His insight (and how it can change yours):

During World War II, the U.S. wanted to add reinforcement armor to specific areas of its planes.

Analysts examined returning bombers and plotted the bullet holes and damage on them (as in the image below).

Based on this analysis, they came to the conclusion that adding armor to the tail, body, and wings would improve their odds of survival.

But a young statistician named Abraham Wald noted that this would be a tragic mistake.

By only plotting data on the planes that returned, they were systematically omitting the data on a critical, informative subset:

The planes that were damaged and unable to return.

Abraham Wald recognized a key fact:

• "Seen" planes had sustained damage that was survivable.
• "Unseen" planes had sustained damage that was not survivable.

Wald concluded that armor should be added to the *unharmed* regions of the returning planes (the areas without bullet holes on the image below).

His profound logic:

Where the survivors were unharmed was actually where the planes were most vulnerable.

Based on his insight, the military reinforced the engine and other vulnerable parts, significantly improving the safety of the crews during combat and saving thousands of lives.

Abraham Wald had identified a cognitive bias called "Survivorship Bias":

The error resulting from systematically focusing on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures) that causes us to miss the true base rates of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

We see examples of Survivorship Bias all around us:

1. We read books on the common traits of successful people, but fail to consider all of the unsuccessful people who possessed those same traits.

2. We applaud the belief when we hear that an entrepreneur took out a second mortgage and succeeded, but fail to consider all of the entrepreneurs who did the same and went bankrupt.

3. We study the cultural strategies of the most successful companies, but fail to consider all of the companies that followed those same strategies and fell apart.

When we fail to consider the range of outcomes and the hidden evidence, we develop a skewed (and often incorrect) view of reality.

It cannot be avoided altogether, because the vast majority of books and history are written by and about the survivors and victors, but wherever possible, consider the unseen evidence.

Remember: What is unseen often has just as much value as what is seen.

***

If you enjoyed this or learned something, follow me @SahilBloom for more in future!

[Isaac Llanes @isaacllanes]

such great wholesome content!

[Shea Serrano @SheaSerrano]

haven’t trusted the swedes since season two of friday night lights

[Isaac Llanes @isaacllanes]

An amazing food review video!

Popeyes® New Classic Bacon & Cheese Chicken Sandwich Review | Joe is Hun... https://t.co/yL4gkQFfVQ via @YouTube

[Jason Romano @JasonRomano]

I went to see the movie “Sound of Freedom” today so I could judge for myself what I thought.

There’s no politics in the movie. There’s very little mention of faith in the movie.

But it was as impactful film as I’ve ever seen. It was hard to watch but I recommend everyone go see it and get a glimpse on the atrocities that exist with our children being caught in human trafficking and sex slavery.

[Brett McCracken @brettmccracken]

The speed with which mischaracterization and misinformation spreads on social media is truly one of the most alarming dynamics of our cultural moment.

[George Mack @george__mack]

What is ignored or neglected by the media -- but will be studied by historians?

Here's the full list of 25 examples:

[Isaac Llanes @isaacllanes]

@F3Flomo hey guys! It’s Lone Star from Middle TN. Are you all doing virtual workouts? If you want to join us let me know and I’ll share the deets! Hope you all are well!

[Isaac Llanes @isaacllanes]

@F3SugarLand this is Lone Star from Middle TN and I am from Richmond and have posted at The Trench and Rocket before. If you all are are not doing any virtual workouts? Let me know and I can send you links to ours for you to join us!