wayne

[wayne @it_swayne]

@AllAzimuths

[wayne @it_swayne]

wow what a track record for EA Sports

[wayne @it_swayne]

Skipping the Polymarket World Cup market as i got better markets to play.
But if you're betting it EA Sports sim called the last 4 champions and likes Spain for 2026.
It's a monte carlo run of their game engine, built on player ratings that aggregate real world ability.

[Retro Coast @RetroCoast]

@financedystop Translation: she got the green card & doesn't need him any more

[Oracle Boar @bored2boar]

🚨 BITCOIN MANIPULATION ON PREDICTION MARKETS

This one chart proves a prediction market is now distorting Bitcoin itself.

Look at it.

The gray line is Binance order flow before Polymarket's 5-minute contract existed.

The black line is after the contract went live.

Same market, same cycle.
Quiet for 290 seconds.

Then, in the final seconds before settlement, it explodes straight up.

That spike is NOT organic trading.

That's money slamming into Binance to push Bitcoin's price and settle a Polymarket contract before the window closes.

And right after settlement, it reverts.

Because the push was never about real value.
It was about winning the bet.

This paper documents the whole thing: [https://t.co/avWLqUOY7J]

The 5-minute contract created the incentive and spot market started getting shoved around to serve it.

One image.
The entire finding.

A small prediction market, quietly bending the biggest exchange in crypto in the last seconds of every cycle.

[Tomdnc @tomdnc]

Polymarket staff confirms that the resolution criteria for the crypto markets are about to drastically change.

TWAP (Time weighted average price) will be integrated to the 5 minute markets, probably based on the final minute, to determine it's outcome.

[Bryan Johnson @bryan_johnson]

The world wants me to die.

My incurable disease diagnosis became global news. It was omnipresent on social media and 1,900 articles were written in a matter of days.

Many were saddened.

However, joy dominated the commentary.

People pointed to schadenfreude, the pleasure of another's failure. Yes, there’s that. There is a special place in people’s hearts that loves to see others fail, especially when that person’s presence threatens their own psychological stability in some way or helps them feel better about themselves.

But, if you look over the social media commentary about me, you’ll see that pattern:

“he deserved it.”

I deserved it because I challenged death. The crowd was running a deeply rooted psychological script that represents the oldest, most deeply embedded stories of human culture.

This was the first story ever written down, 4,000 years ago. Gilgamesh sought eternal life after losing someone he loved, only to have the plant of youth stolen by a serpent as he bathed. Leaving him to accept his mortality.

Asclepius became so skilled at rejuvenation that he raised the dead. As punishment, Zeus struck him down with a thunderbolt to enforce life and death authority.

This is the story of Jesus. Pontius Pilate offered a choice between a thief and the immortalist, and the crowd demanded the execution.

People need this story conclusion to keep themselves sane. The challenger must lose and the loss must appear deserved. It’s a shield of self preservation.

For if death is inevitable, their existence and that of their loved ones is justified and unavoidable. If death is not inevitable, nothing about their reality is safe.

I occupy the same philosophical and archetypal position as Gilgamesh, Asclepius and Jesus.

This statement will draw outrage and accusations of blasphemy, hubris and narcissism. Nevertheless, it’s the pattern that has repeated itself for thousands of years.

Death has been the omnipresent concern of the human race. It encapsulates our greatest fears, joy and curiosities. The discourse around it changes over time; however, the fundamentals remain unchanged.

What’s different about this moment, that is unlike any other moment, is that physical death may no longer be inevitable.

What if I didn’t deserve it?

And what if I am your ally, and not a threat?

[wayne @it_swayne]

Antigravity is a great product, but normies can't see it. It's not just the harness, it's also the philosophy behind it.
Can't wait for Gemini 3.5 Pro!

[wayne @it_swayne]

RIP LC500 a japanese v8 beauty

[Lisan al Gaib @scaling01]

how can you not like deepseek

thank you lord wenfeng for continuing to make intelligence too cheap to meter

[wayne @it_swayne]

@scaling01 please test mimo v2.5 pro

[wayne @it_swayne]

"Value" is the transient order in the middle. "Fairness" is the attempt to redistribute the split after the fact, and it's never actually Pareto, because there's always someone (nature, the future, the outcompeted) who paid and didn't get a check.

[wayne @it_swayne]

Humans don't create, they transform:

extract low-entropy stock from nature
rearrange it into something other humans value
and dump the entropy and the uncompensated losses off-ledger.

[wayne @it_swayne]

y'all scream pareto when it's actually kaldor-hicks

[wayne @it_swayne]

we need a model precision transparency act
the silent bait and switch is evil

[wayne @it_swayne]

glm 5.2 on devin feels so dumb right now ,i wonder how quantized it's

[wayne @it_swayne]

@peaceofleague @mushaf_mughal @LexnLin vscode doesn't have a harness he is asking about the harness

[wayne @it_swayne]

@JacobRothfield @LexnLin you are on auto

[Cline @cline]

We've kept hearing how GLM-5.2 beats Opus 4.8, and are skeptical of benchmarks - so we tested them on a real bug from the Cline repo. While both models fixed the issue, GLM was the winner in terms of cost and code quality:

- GLM used twice as many tokens (GLM 1.1m vs Opus 660K) but cost half as much (GLM $0.41 vs Opus $0.81)

- Opus finished quicker - 1.6 min and 12 tool calls vs GLM 4.7 min and 28 tool calls

- GLM cleaned up dead code and verified the build compiled before completing. Opus didn't - it left type errors that passed tests but broke the production build.

Both runs used the same Cline harness prompting and tools, so it seems GLM is RL trained to spend more tokens verifying its work before completing. Impressive work by the @Zai_org team!

[wayne @it_swayne]

@bearlyai this could be true, openai might run models at lower precision during peak hours, better than returning an error

[wayne @it_swayne]

claude fable?
more like claude fumble