ITC Markets

Institutional level financial market information for Fixed Income, STIRs, FX, Indices

[Econostream @EconoStream]

👀 #INSIGHT | The euro is closing in on $1.20. Is the ECB worried?

💶 Three Governing Council members weighed in over the past three days - but EUR/USD strength alone doesn’t seem enough to trigger a near-term cut.

Read our latest Insight 🔗https://t.co/wjR4d1TxAz

[Econostream @EconoStream]

🚨 ECB's Lane just tilted our #ECBToneMeter slightly dovish.

One of the drivers: his asymmetric framing on risks to the inflation baseline.

Full explanation coming shortly in a new Insight - stay tuned! 👀

[Martin Kocher @MagratheanTimes]

I spoke to @DB_Econostream about monetary policy.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

#VIDEO | ECB Succession: Who Might Succeed Philip Lane?

🇪🇺 In the second episode of our Succession series, we look at the question of Lane’s eventual successor. Could a new member state secure an Executive Board seat?

📹 Watch it here

📰 Full story: https://t.co/1lkF0b5gHK

[Econostream @EconoStream]

🧐 Did markets misread ECB President Lagarde last Thursday? What do you think?

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

Euribors heavy and EUR higher over the last half hour on this story from @EconoStream

[Econostream @EconoStream]

🚨 New exclusive interview with ECB Executive Board member @Isabel_Schnabel

🔹'The bar for another rate cut is very high', she says in an exclusive interview with Econostream.

Full story👉https://t.co/9JmZl3gIOT

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

Another exclusive from @EconoStream

[Econostream @EconoStream]

‼️New exclusive interview with ECB Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks coming up at https://t.co/IqjQYm5Yg6 in a few minutes.

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

Nice scoop from @EconoStream - ECB's Patsalides doesn't speak publicly v often

[Econostream @EconoStream]

‼️New exclusive interview with ECB Governing Council member Christodoulos Patsalides coming up at https://t.co/IqjQYm5Yg6 in a few minutes.

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

ITC- USTs and Bund: Despite the softer data over the last few sessions, USTs did get hit lower yesterday on blocks etc (speculation linked to REITS)- but the flows ran their course, we got close to 5% 30yr (115 in ultra's) which simply saw the market turn around there- and seemed like everyone jumped on that level

- Also there was that very large buying in the long-end of NEGUs (12yr+ sector) on MTS yesterday around 11.49BST totalling 1.4mln/01. Was 1.6mln/01 and 1.4mln in cash. Lifted Bund w/ it.

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

ITC- Gilts: Much focus on the DMO tomorrow at 07.30BST

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

ITC on QRA (08.30ET/13.30BST): Coupons exp unch, Guidance and buybacks in focus.
-Coupons exp unch, w/ a refunding package of $58b 3y, $42b 10y, $25b 30y.
Most expect further $1b increases - 5y & 10y TIPs offerings.
-Uncertainty around guidance again. Many expect the statement will repeat "Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters"; Some expect it to be altered to provide flexibility.
-Most expect next round of coupon increases pushed back to early '26- some see Nov '25 as a possibility.
-There is speculation the Trsy may hint at further flexibility in terms of buybacks after Bessent referenced the Treasury's 'toolkit' after recent volatility/surge in term premium. While they are unlikely to expand buybacks above the ongoing $30bn size for next quarter, they may signal willingness to adjust to aid mkt liquidity/functioning.
-Most bank f/cs for x-date clustered around mid-late Aug; debt limit deal will likely be attached to the Republican's budget deal.

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

ITC Index Extensions: Final update to include yesterday's syndication (no big changes)

Expected Index Extensions and Month End Rebalances for April

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

ITC on Gilts written yesterday in the EoD: With underlying 30y Gilt vulnerability still evident, (exclusive steepening on Monday) the DMO is taking views on the preferred tenor for the (long?) syndication at the start of this week; From what we hear, from a small community of Gilt participants, the tenor preference is wide ranging, from a 7-15y deal, to a 20y, or continue with a 30y & possibly mark down as a NG (No Grow) to stabilise/add transparency. The DMO will announce further details of the maturity area on Friday 2 May at 07:30 BST.

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

SPGBs: seems some of the Madrid Brokers have been able to get on to to their desks this morning. Just checking now if we're still able to get the Spanish data today. At 0800BST, we're supposed to get Spain CPI y/y Apr (P) (Cons 2.2%, Prev 2.3%). We'll update

[Econostream @EconoStream]

‼️New exclusive interview with ECB Governing Council member Mário Centeno coming up at https://t.co/g7yULgd3u1 in a few minutes.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

‼️New exclusive interview with ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras coming up at https://t.co/g7yULgd3u1 in a few minutes.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

‼️New ECB exclusive interview with Governing Council alternate member Alexander Demarco coming up at https://t.co/tQOhxhw8T1 in a few minutes.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

🇪🇺ECB language on 6 March 2025 vs 30 January 2025:

📃What changed and what stayed the same on its monetary policy statement?

Find out in this #thread 🧵

[ITC Markets @ITCMarkets]

ITC – ECB March 2025 Meeting Preview- Bank analysts unanimously expect the ECB to cut rates by 25bp

Policy Announcement:Thursday, March 6, 13:15 UKT / 08:15 NYT; Press Conf: 13:45 UKT / 08:45 NYT

Current Rates: Deposit 2.75%, Main Refinancing 2.9%, Marginal Lending Facility 3.15%.

In Brief:
· Bank analysts unanimously expect the ECB to cut rates by 25bp
· OIS markets are also pricing in the near certainty of a 25bp cut (24.4bp)
· Most observers expect the ECB to soften its language on restrictiveness
· Large majority of analysts expect the next cut in April, but acknowledge a pause is possible
· OIS markets are pricing 42bp cuts by April, and 62bp by June (ie 2.5x 25bp cuts by June)
· No analysts expect the ECB to take steps bigger than 25bp at upcoming meetings
· The terminal rate is estimated between 1% and 2.25% (OIS priced between 1.75% and 2.0%)
· Most analysts see the ECB halting its easing cycle at 2%
· Many expect growth projections to be revised down and inflation projections up

ITC ECB Preview: https://t.co/PQsyBpCtGh