Olivia
Online
J 👨🏻💻
@its_ninefour
Crypto. Small caps. Investments.
The Metaverse
Joined August 2021
409 Following
124 Followers
634 Posts
@IbrahimMal74532 @mshafiquk Please elaborate how being Moroccan means you’re a Zionist. May Allah forgive you for your sins. Calling members of the ummah such is sinful.
@TigerLineTrades Hey brother. Do you offer trials on your discord? Looking to join a small-cap discord and would like to try. Even if it's a few days. Thanks!
How to Create More Luck:
Great to be back. Really, I never left. Quietly adding to my retirement funds over the weeks, months & years.
But let’s get back to some daily activity. Particularly small caps.
Many times I receive this question: “𝗠𝗮𝘁𝗲, 𝗜'𝗺 𝗮𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀, 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗼 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱 𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀?”
You see, the game they want you to play is exactly this one.
Let me explain.
The mentality forged by the crypto culture is highly toxic for a newcomer or for everyone who has a low starting capital.
It’s a perpetual emotion and dream leveraging, with the sole goal of making people hodling and hoping for their coins to go to the 🌙, 99% of the time with unrealistic targets.
“This is just getting started, HODL or cry later” and that's why the majority gets completely annihilated without extracting any single profit even admitting they’re sitting on a money Babel Tower.
So what is the recipe for making money if you have a low-capital and don't want to be sucked into the “forever holding” narrative?
Your fuc***g self.
Most people are so obsessed with the idea of making money exclusively by crypto that they don't spend time investing in themselves, which is the fastest way to waste opportunities but most importantly your 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹.
If you tattoo on your 🧠 that you are worth more than what you think, that is the 1st step to make money.
The following blueprint is made of 4 tasks:
• Learn which is your deepest passion (spend time figuring it out ~> it’s the thing that gives you joy and inner motivation)
• Invest in yourself by learning a relative and unique skill (think outside of the box, do something unusual, you have to stand out)
• Put yourself on the 🌐 and show the world what you're able to do (select the right platform ~> X for writing | YouTube for videos | Instagram for pics and quick videos ~> consistency)
• Monetize the brand in a sustainable way
The cash flow generated will allow you to invest and actually need smaller multipliers to make money, regardless of diminishing returns.
“I need a 100X mentality” will sensibly vanish.
It’s not exclusively a matter of cash flow, it's a matter of plenty of different things like:
• Passion (doing the thing you love is better than frying potatoes for Ronald)
• Self-satisfaction (building something with your own hands will give you confidence in many other aspects of life + happiness)
• Asset building (a reputable business will also act as a diversification for potentially harder times)
The Internet has given the opportunity to EVERYONE to make 💰.
And no, it’s not a fancy clichè.
Just think about how many stupid things like Coca-Cola/Mentos pranks flow on YouTube every day and how much people capitalize on them.
They make thousands every single day.
Do you really evaluate yourself less than this clownery?
When you come back from your 9-5 instead of “relaxing” by scrolling the gram, build something that allows you to live the life you want.
Build something that your sons will be proud of.
Stop consuming, start producing.
Your potential is way bigger than you think.
A few pieces of advice to stay level-headed during this 2024:
• Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Bank, BlackRock, and other big entities will create illusions by giving unrealistic predictions and expectations, likely and “coincidentally” at HTF levels ~> don’t fall for them, their aim is to 🪤 retail investors
• The predominant narrative of ETF inflows will continue to dominate the scene left and right, pushing people to believe supercycle is imminent because of endless inflow/not outflow on a scarce asset ~> You’re guessing right, it’s another 🪤
• An altseason is well in play bringing higher prices compared to early 2024, thus potential 💰 to be made but it will still be far way more conservative than what the majority expects ~> paper profits screenshots will be the norm once again
• No one coin is a superior technology and no one coin is immune to the bear market so keep this in 🧠 once we start breaking above previous altcoins market ATHs
• 90% of the time big accounts talk about a specific altcoin (especially low cap) the probability of searching for exit liquidity drastically increases ~> 👁️ at the chart before considering taking any sort of position
• One of the best ways to scale out profits from the market is by looking at confluence across the most important metrics at 🔑 levels: USDT D. down + ETH/BTC up + BTC D. down (together with classic PA)
It took me 5 years to figure out what truly works in trading and that statistically increases the probability of success.
Mistake after mistake and dollar after dollar.
Probably I already covered this topic, but in this post, I'll show you what in my opinion has to be studied more deeply to be one step ahead of the curve.
(alpha in here, believe me)
“Trading? Nah, I’m an investor I don't care”
Before starting, I want to tell you that I was one of the most aggressive “TA deniers” because I thought fundamentals were dictating the price.
After plenty of economic sacrifices, I can tell you that those are lies and once you start understanding technical analysis you also start to figure out that “fundamentals” play 20% of the game while 80% is purely on price action.
So whenever someone tells you: “TA doesn't work, it's astrology for men” that is because he believes in fairytales (like me in the past) and learned the wrong way.
“Wrong way?”
Most people are taught by 90% of “gurus” to utilize MACD, RSI, Stochastic and overall indicators as the primary methods to base their strategies.
How many times did you hear: “Bro, RSI is overbought..time to sell!” ?
Congrats, this is the easiest way to go extra rekt.
What most individuals don't comprehend, along with the functioning of indicators, is that the majority of them are lagging ones.
This means that they trail price movements providing signals AFTER a trend has already begun.
They don’t forecast the future, they “help” to sustain your main thesis, eventually.
Your thesis HAS to be originated by the study of the price action together with the fundamental connotation BEFORE using a single indicator.
Fun fact: you can watch the charts without applying indicators and be one step ahead of most “traders”.
The most profitable guys I know use naked charts.. food for thought, right?
Fix it in your head: there’s no indicator that acts as a passe partout for easy money and those who sell “magic” one are making themselves rich draining your pockets.
What I learned after these 7 years in this jungle, is that this is a game of liquidity played by whales(smart money) that clearly know the behavior of retails.
How they operate from both “technical” and psychological aspects..that’s why they win.
Do you think it's a coincidence, for example, that a specific news is being released at HTF levels?
It's not, because it exploits retail mentality to “justify” the nuke or the surge so retails keep buying or selling like puppets.
Each fundamental news you see “deployed”acts as a catalyst to generate profits independently of its impact on human lives, like in the case of a war, for example.
You think “The Matrix” isn't real but it is, and that's only when you accept that everything is controlled and manipulated that you start to see what others cannot see.
That's also why you notice me talking about “Sharingan”, the innate ability that very few can conquer.
“How can I develop a Sharingan, mate? What are the concepts to master?”
• Market structure (classic HH/HL + LH/LL)
• Support and resistance levels, but most specifically supply and demand zones (more relevant) + order blocks
• Fibonacci levels, which help you to individuate premium and discount areas
• Volume profile (LVN, HVN, VAL, VAH, POC)
• Auction Market Theory and then moving to Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) and Imbalances
• Closures above/below key areas
•Candles size (bodies for gauging strength of the move, wicks for gauging manipulation)
• Statistically effective reversal patterns (H&S/IH&S/Double Top|Bottom/Engulfing)
• Open interest | spot premium | funding
All of these concepts applied to HTFs, because their validity has a bigger “weight” than LTFs.
Is this the only way to chart? No.
Is this the only way to make money? Neither.
Is there a lot to study? Yes, and it's also a constant improvement.
But if you ask me, that's what opened my eyes and grew my Sharingan after YEARS of operating wrongly.
One of the worst mistakes you can make in this game is suffering from “money comparison” syndrome.
The further we proceed with the bull market, the more you'll see people flexing their gains.
“I’m close to X million”
“I made 4729402$ from this trade”
These statements will just create a letal spiral of frustration in your head.
The sense that you’re not making enough money will trigger an urge response from your brain, potentially forcing you to chase candles.
This is a trap.
The truths are:
• Everyone is different with different stories.
Some people start with 1000$, some others with 10000$ and another part with 0.
Each path tells its own story
• Most people lie about what they make.
They use socials to canalize attention and stand themselves as financial gurus
• It doesn't matter how much time it can take as long as you grow and progress
• What really matters is just you, yourself and your shadow.
The rest has to be perceived as an illusion
Everyone is expecting the bull market top to be sometime during 2025.
But what would you do if the top is in by the end of the year, say Nov/Dec? You're waiting for a repeat of the 2021 cycle, averaging down on altcoins, and waiting for a supercycle that never arrives.
Just a thought. Will probably not end this way though :)
✨ "Financial expert" Dave Ramsey claiming #Bitcoin would crash to $0 at $500, exactly 10 years ago
"You're stupid. You're gonna lose your money."
It’s up 10,000% ever since 💫
Plenty of times I receive this controversial question:
"How much does an altseason lasts, mate?"
Ok, I got you..you're afraid of selling too early or too late, isn't it?
Let's therefore bring some data analyzing what happened in the past to have a compass for the future.
🔸Byproduct of human's greed
Read the title, then read it twice.
Now you have the perfect definition of what an altseason is.
It's not something that happens during the first or middle phase of the cycle where Bitcoin takes the spotlight (contrary to what most accounts want you to believe for engagement purposes) but instead during the last phase of the cycle.
This is logical as retails start to pay attention exclusively when BTC breaks the past ATH and the media attention threshold drastically raises, "forcing" them to look at cheap coins that can turn them into intra-day millionaires.
In this chart you can find the correlation between the break of BTC's ATH and the drop in BTC D. which flashes risk aversion and retails inflow.
🔸Ethereum/Bitcoin pair
One of the biggest signal for evaluating if we're entering the altseason, is surely looking at the BTC D. to drop but also to the ETH/BTC breakout, which are inversely correlated.
By looking at the past 2 cycles, we can find an interesting data : the parabolic move made by ETH/BTC and which leads to the whole altcoin sector to rise fast lasts approximately 40 days, less or more.
In the classic green/red colors you can see ETH making the parabolic move, while in black the OTHERS chart, which represents the purest state of the altcoin market.
🔸"Wait, does this mean we have just 40 days to make money?"
Well, no.
If you look at the OTHERS chart, you can see that historically speaking, from when it abandons the accumulation stage to the expansion stage pic, approximately 500 days pass.
This means that you if you're positioned since the accumulation stage (4/6 months prior to the halving is the sweet spot) you'll likely to enjoy big profits all the way up, without caring too much about the perfect top.
What's interesting to notice here, is that it seems we already left the accumulation stage, and projecting another 500 days of expansion, would put the altcoins top around the Q1 of 2025. (to take with a pinch of salt)
But if we peak earlier than the common cycle, this can be a potential outcome.
🔸In conclusion, what we can evince?
Focusing on how much an altseason can last isn't the best way to approach the market, as it would likely "force" you to wait for the perfect moment to sell everything, severely increasing the risk of selling too late.
What matters, in my opinion, is positioning ourselves earlier than the masses and then evaluating:
- When BTC break its previous ATH
- When BTC D. starts to drop
- When OTHERS starts to go parabolic
- When ETH/BTC starts to outperform
All of these 4 signals are crucial for determining when we have to raise our attention threshold and start looking for de-risking from the market (together with your hairdresser asking for financial advice and celebrities promoting crypto projects)
Just take note, and that's one of the most important things, that retails will not look for HTF closure below key zones. (🔨)
That's why they'll become exit liquidity.
Don’t say I didn’t tell you so 📸💰
Added a full bag of $ORDS. Ready for it to pop in 2024!
Save this tweet!
Patience is being tested.
The playbook for me is quite simple:
• Close above 44K ~> test of 49K (last high)
• Close above 49K ~> 53/54K
• Close below 40K ~> first SOW
• Close below 38K (last wick) ~> 36/32K
All on HTF closures.
28K is quite unlikely, but can get filled with a wick if we arrive in the low 30s, eventually.
Still protecting my capital.
Still not forcing anything.
Jerome Powell on the US national debt:
• We’re on an unsustainable path
• Debt is growing faster than the economy
• We’re borrowing from future generations
Projected debt in 30 years: $144 Trillion
We need #Bitcoin now more than ever
$ZIG stats going through the roof, only a matter of time until it smashes into new ATHS
Holding for Bull 🎯
Ok guys, time to get back to the classic grind.
Let's make a writeup about Bitcoin price action and what can we expect now.
Those who are following me since early stages know which was my plan back in June 2023, supported by an important update back in October.
If you missed it, it's publicly written here -> https://t.co/h3ih3JlCbO
You know that I never make supremacy self-proclamations as I strongly believe results speak for themselves and the mistake can be around the corner.
But let me say that this plan has worked out very well, despite all the bullishness due to the ETF.
That's why I always emphasize the importance of charts over news, which are intentionally prepared for the masses to follow a specific direction.
Another proof was clearly here -> https://t.co/xpsAc3ZF6Q
🔸Short term situation
As we saw, the price wicked to 48K providing an overall fake perception (wicks are maniplative practices) and we're now back into the real trading activity cluster (40K/44K).
What can be noticed is that the last weekly candle has closed below the short-term support at 41360$ adding relative strength to the bearish side.
However, despite this short-term noise, the HTF and psychological support at 40K is still holding and only a HTF closure below 40.200$ (December 2nd weekly lower shadow) would push Bitcoin to break that important level.
Weekly OBV is sitting at support and can be used as a confluence to validate the thesis.
🔸What's next in my opinion
We have 3 options in my opinion, from the most likely to the less one:
- A bearish retest toward 44K/46K (Black Arrow)
- An imminent breakdown toward 36K (Red Arrow)
- A move and HTF closure above 48K that would send BTC to the 0.786+ over time
🔸Final closure
Given everything, my main scenario remains for a deeper correction toward 36K and 32K which would be definitely healthy for the long-term structure and aligned with past cycles retracements.
32K especially, represents a key and strong level in which the price can be headed, using it as a springboard to reload before moving higher.
Considering the fact that is a multi-month level (7+) in which Bitcoin has been suppressed, I'm not expecting it to be broken (a manipulative wick can trick people) at this stage of the cycle.
We're basically 3 months aways from the halving and this isn't the time to be macro bearish, but instead preparing a plan in case we go lower to exploit the situation.
That's what a wise and smart investor do.
As you know, I'm not biased so I'm willing to accept to be wrong in case my plan will be invalidated (HTF closure above 48K), but that's my overall view at the moment.
Time to make an important dominance update because last week deceived me a little.
After having pushed to reclaim the uptrend, in fact, BTC D. faced a strong rejection.
What I think it's important to notice, is that the rejection has produced a weekly bearish engulfing that has also compromised the 70-day uptrend + breaking below the 0.38 level. (52%)
We can also find additional confirmations with the RSI which has created a bearish divergence and continuing to remain in LH/LL conditions + the MACD which has crossed bearish.
This is interesting as it could be interpreted as a first sign of capital rotation toward the altcoin space.
However, and that's why I'm remaining cautious, ETH/BTC hasn't closed above the 0.06 resistance (yet?)
Further confirmation of a potential rotation/mini altseason, is indeed given by this breakout and HTF closure above that mark.
It's too early to uncork the bottles, but as long as BTC remains above the 40K level and dominance remains relatively low, the odds for an ETH/BTC breakout and money flow switch increase.
Again, patiently waiting from the trench.
$IXS $RVST $GB 🎯
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