Ayo

building stuff | swe @ big bank

[Ayo @itsayool]

@oliverbrocato Just take the adderall bro

[Ayo @itsayool]

I’m in my last semester of college and just now finding out I have adhd

[Ayo @itsayool]

The reason you’re bored is that u don’t love anything

[Ayo @itsayool]

@gao_zibo Duolingo started this

[Ayo @itsayool]

Every app treats notifications as a growth lever now

[Zibo Gao @gao_zibo]

we have a massive push notification saturation problem

[Zibo Gao @gao_zibo]

we have a massive push notification saturation problem

[hexumlite @hexumlite]

Normies are trapped in a perpetual state of emulating creatives

It is intuitive to copy something that is working.

However, probabilistically speaking you will be the second best at said thing and since that established person, business or product is the schelling point of that genre or thing you are copying it’s very hard to change this.

The only considerable and concrete X factor anybody or any business can have is the ability to march to the beat of their drum

It’s such a simple idea

I literally won’t even attempt anything if it’s been done before unless I tweak many variables making it practically original

Literally a low ev move at its finest.

People do this with stocks, crypto, business and on social media.

YouTubers doing the same bs pranks

They are DESTINED to fail

[Ayo @itsayool]

@signulll I think personal agents (for consumer) should be more of a feature than a standalone product . It’s why I think Apple is in the best position for it

[Ayo @itsayool]

@TechFundies I think they just want to be in the AI competition too. Muse isn't even the main point.

[Hendrik Haandrikman 🐈 @HHaandr]

The opportunity is still massive, but it hides in places most people won’t look

Build something you actually care about

Build from a unique perspective or unfair insight you’ve earned

Build for an audience you have real access to and trust with

[Ayo @itsayool]

Entrepreneurship has become a spectator sport, similar to sports, music, and entertainment. People now follow founders, startups, product launches, and company rivalries almost the same way they follow athletes and sports teams.

[Ayo @itsayool]

@startupoppa well that's if you can afford to fail

[Ayo @itsayool]

@the_jeremiad https://t.co/5auWP7j32S

[Ayo @itsayool]

He’s basically telling you why personal agents aren’t gonna work. You’re trying to take the massive value you get from agents doing complex technical work and replicate that in trivial consumer tasks like booking flights or ordering groceries.

[Ayo @itsayool]

@startupoppa @johnternus I just contact that them to review it after 2 days

[Ayo @itsayool]

These ecom bros are getting out of hand man

[Jacob @jforjacob]

For anyone who isn't plugged in, the new alpha is basically just target black people with song ads

make sure the song mentions:

- Cheating - (ideally man cheating on girl)

- Girls sister needs to be involved in some way

- Physical transformation happens as a result of your product

- The person that got cheated on gets better sexual partner (original partner see's this and gets jealous and is full of remorse)

[Ayo @itsayool]

He’s basically telling you why personal agents aren’t gonna work. You’re trying to take the massive value you get from agents doing complex technical work and replicate that in trivial consumer tasks like booking flights or ordering groceries.

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.

- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.

The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.

So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

[Ayo @itsayool]

@luvshollyy I hope I’m not late

[Ayo @itsayool]

if the main value proposition for personal agents is saving or making consumers money, why not just build a personal finance product?

[TBPN @tbpn]

"The average consumer actually does not value their time. You would think they do, but they really do not.”

"What people do care about is saving or making money.”

@zach_yadegari, founder of Persona, explains how he's building his AI assistant around that belief:

[Ayo @itsayool]

We all know Apple is gonna win personal agents in the end

If I was building a personal agent startup, I’d probably just optimize the whole company around eventually getting acquired by Apple