The best way to become a better investor is by narrowing your scope
What do I mean by this?
Too many young people are constantly trying to chase the hottest trend in markets, whether that is AI, GLP 1s, crypto or quantum computing
Not enough people actually spend their time focusing on a single vertical or value chain, which is often the best way to become an expert at something
Here is what I would do instead
> pick a niche sector or vertical and identify 4-5 companies that all sit within the same value chain. They can be competitors of each other or can sit along the same supply chain
> pick apart those 4-5 companies in as much detail as you possibly can. Read every 10K, 10Q, 8K and earnings call transcripts in the recent few years. Track all the reported KPIs and segments in the companies
> build a simple 3 statement model on each of these companies. Dont overcomplicate it by building 17 tabs of assumptions and drivers. I am talking simple revenue build that is just price * volume. Simple P&L walkthrough down to EBITDA and net income. Build down to unlevered cash flows and then levered cash flows. Look at key metrics like gross and operating margins, capex % of revenue, NWC swings, cash conversion cycle etc.
> put the 4-5 companies next to each other and start digging into the differences between each. Some simple things you can look for: (i) why did one company grow revenue at 10% in Year X but the other grew at 3%? (ii) why does one company have EBITDA margins of 17% while the other is at 32%? (iii) why does one company spend 7% of their revenue on capex while another spends only 2%?
> questions like these will inform you about the relative value of each and help you identify where each sit in the value chain. It will also inform your view on whether customers prefer one over the other, and which business tends to capture all the economic value within a certain supply chain
> once you have a base level understanding of your 4-5 businesses, start talking to every other person who is knowledgable on the sector or vertical. I am talking about equity research analysts, experts, former employees of the company, management, and other investors. Ask them about their thesis on each and why they prefer one over the other. This is obviously harder if you dont sit within an institutional firm that has access to these resources. However, with the internet, you can always find information and relevant folks to chat with. Do your best with what you have available
> now as each company reports earnings, track them closely. Listen to the earnings calls. Update your model for each and compare the actual performance vs your assumptions. Did the company underperform or outperform your assumptions? Why? Dig into it on a line item by line item basis. Figure out what drives earnings in these companies. What are the leading indicators? What could you have done to make your process better?
> repeat this for each subsequent quarter of earnings and continue to refine your view on these 4-5 companies by continuing to speak with other informed people. Do site visits if you can. If it is a product or service you can purchase, spend some time actually using it. What do you like about it? What can it do better than its competitors?
Do this for long enough and you will have become one of the best investors in those 4-5 companies.
This is exactly the process that the best hedge fund analysts on Wall Street follow.
Dont try to chase after every shiny trend or business. Narrow your focus and become an expert in just a few businesses or sectors.
That is all you really need to make a lot of money in the stock market
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