The best trades always require the most patience.
Unfortunately, 95% of people don't have the patience to hold a position for more than a few days because they're constantly chasing adrenaline.
The market doesn't reward the most active trader. It rewards the most patient one.
Proper trading is boring. It's not supposed to be fun. If you're constantly entertained by the market, you're probably trading your emotions.
My current $BTC plan.
Above 80K Q1 2027.
Above 110K Q4 2027.
Bull market tops June-July 2028. (160-180K)
We are not hitting 100K this year. Next year is a different story. I expect us to trade above 100K in Q4 2027.
Without question $BTC is in the final stages of forming a bottom.
We're printing identical structure to what we saw in 2022.
This is the final meaningful leg to the downside. Any further deviation lower is likely to be manipulation before expansion.
Major update regarding bitcoin:native
So, you've probably noticed that I've started gradually adding more BTC spot around 74K. Since people on this app often like to twist narratives, take things out of context, and muddle the message, I think it's important to clearly explain my current stance. That's exactly what I'll do in this post.
First and foremost, I have been bearish for 8 months straight. Through my thesis, analysis, and TA, I was able to avoid the price action where most people get rekt, which is bear market price action. In doing so, I avoided a 50% drop whilst capitalizing on my public swing shorts.
A typical bear market lasts around 300 to 350 days. BTC is currently on day 237. I have stated multiple times that I expect BTC to push lower into the August period. I have also stated that my estimated bottom based on historical cycles sits in the 45K to 55K region.
That means one of my current buys at 74K could potentially be 25% to 30% underwater. A lot of people are asking, "If you're confident in your thesis, why are you buying again at 74K?"
The answer is simple.
Investing and trading are two different things.
BTC is currently down 41% from the highs. At most, I believe we probably see another 25% to 30% decline. That means more than 65% of the bear market retracement has already occurred. Essentially, buying at 74K today, if historical cycles continue to play out, is comparable to buying around 30K during the last cycle, which ultimately worked out very well.
It doesn't matter how good you are as a trader or how much money you have. What matters is recognizing when the risk to reward profile begins shifting in your favor and positioning accordingly.
I think BTC will be sitting somewhere in the 160K to 200K range next cycle. Yes, those are bold targets and bold predictions, but they are not unrealistic. They are rooted in historical returns, diminishing returns, and cycle data.
That means buying around 70K today could potentially generate 100% to 150% returns over the next few years, significantly outperforming legacy markets and gold, even in a diminishing returns environment.
On the other hand, if BTC does reach my 45K to 55K bottom zone, that's another 25% to 30% downside from current levels.
So the question you need to ask yourself is simple:
Would you miss a potential 100% to 150% move higher over the next few years because you were worried about a possible 25% to 30% drawdown?
For me, the answer is no.
Even if that means sitting through temporary drawdowns in the short term.
Now, I am both a swing trader and an investor.
My current swing trade is still a short position, which I have been holding for nearly two months. The objective of that short position is to trade the current market structure, which remains bearish. I am not focused on being bullish until the structure itself turns bullish.
That is not flip flopping.
It is simply two different strategies with two different objectives.
On the higher timeframes, I am an investor and a buyer. On the intermediate timeframes, I am following trend and structure, positioning accordingly until I see evidence that the trend has shifted.
As most of you know, people on X love to take things out of context without understanding objectives or timeframe alignment, which is why I wanted to clarify exactly how I am thinking about the market right now.
Additionally, many of the higher timeframe cycle indicators are beginning to shift.
When BTC reached 126K, most of the traditional cycle top indicators never reached peak euphoria. In fact, many remained well below previous cycle extremes. These indicators are a major component of my higher timeframe investing framework.
What I am noticing is a divergence.
During the bull market, many metrics failed to reach historical euphoria levels. At the same time, during the bear market, extreme capitulation readings are also becoming less severe and are not reaching the depths seen in previous cycles.
In other words, the cycles themselves appear to be evolving.
Volatility is compressing. Market behavior is changing. That means adaptation is necessary, and it also means we should remain open to the possibility that future cycles may not play out exactly as they have in the past.
Whether that happens this cycle or the next is impossible to know with certainty.
What I do know is that when the math, probabilities, and risk to reward are in my favor, I am simply a buyer.
That's it.
I have attached a few charts outlining the plan I had from 100K+, the areas where I intended to become a buyer, and several metrics showing that extreme capitulation zones continue to become shallower over time.
Volatility compression suggests there is a real possibility that future bear markets become less violent and less dramatic than what we have historically experienced.
Hopefully this post clears up any confusion regarding my current stance.
It took a while to write, but I felt it was necessary.
Let me know if you would like me to do more posts like this in the future.
The biggest $BTC psyop was making everyone think I was wrong.
That’s what the algo was waiting for.
A tweet from the guy who’s been right for 8 months straight getting pushed onto everyone’s timeline.
Thanks for playing. 🤟
The Discord OGs already know what the plan behind that tweet was.
If you paid close attention to my tweets, positioning, analysis, and expectations, you could probably read between the lines and understand where I was leaning and what I was anticipating based on historical price action.
The market will probably bounce soon cause MMs are p*ssed.
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