Joshua Shapiro

Helping organizations build robust intel-driven security programs at @CrowdStrike, formerly @deloitte Fed Intel & Investigations. Opinions are my own.

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@TXMCtrades 💯

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@SpencerGuard Imagine @ProfessorPape not recognizing that Israel is conducting coercion by denial… a theory that he developed and published on extensively?

“Coercion and Military Strategy: Why Denial Works and Punishment Doesn't”
(https://t.co/e2JbuTNUbW)

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@ProfessorPape @LukeJSchumacher https://t.co/e2JbuTNUbW

👆 Everyone should read this freely available piece, “Coercion and Military Strategy: Why Denial Works and Punishment Doesn't” by @ProfessorPape himself to understand Israel’s strategy in its wars against Hezb and IRI.

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@ProfessorPape How you aren’t recognizing that Israel is executing a campaign based squarely on your theory “coercion by denial” is absolutely mind boggling. The mental gymnastics that you and Mearshimer undertake on a daily basis is astounding.

Cc: @LukeJSchumacher

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@PrestonPysh You’re not interpreting this correctly… ISW only had $10m in receipts, none of which was direct taxpayer funding.

There’s 17 billion in taxpayer funding to every org on this chart, many of which are multiple degrees separated for ISW.

Network analysis without context is 🤯

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@HoyasFan07 What a terrible proposal. What’s the best ROI method for preventing another 9/11 since 9/11/01? (1) $5-8 trillion of malinvestment occupying strategically insignificant countries to deny safe havens to terrorist or (2) ~100 billion on TSA augmented by fixed causes of the USIC…?

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@LeeBTConsulting Agree choke points around maritime supply are a critical vulnerability and that we need sufficient industrial capacity to create massive volumes of PGMs, and large stockpiles to enable “mass” implementation of precision strike (apply the “full dose of antibiotics”).

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@LeeBTConsulting Wouldn’t the same dynamic development of electronic countermeasures apply to the U.S. and our allies with regard to Russian systems? Should we not assume we’re collecting telemetry and other technical intelligence in theater to develop these countermeasures now?

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@LeeBTConsulting We trickled in PGMs slowly and haven’t provided updated systems (which we would not do in a direct conflict). It’s like only taking half a dose of antibiotics, the bacteria adapts if it’s not suffieciently degraded/destroyed.

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@LeeBTConsulting Failing to acknowledge Israel penetrated Iranian (Russian-provided) IAD network using western air platforms and PGMs to destroy their most advanced AD assets and hit sensitive facilities critical to the nuclear supply chain. Why not include that in the analysis?

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@HoyasFan07 5.8 trillion spent on GWOT is a pretty big malinvestment (16% of total current debt). Mind boggling opportunity cost. AFAIK, all of this was funded with discretionary spending that doesn’t fall within any legally mandated budget control limits.

https://t.co/EgzAiW71qr

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@AutismCapital Lots of declassified plans from the 19th and 20th centuries are publicly available. Folks should read about war plan orange if they’re interested in multi decade evolution of pacific military strategy as balance of power between US and Japan shifted leading up to Pearl Harbor.

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@AutismCapital https://t.co/KgrzHRDJKL

Incorrect characterization in the clip and baffling that anyone would be surprised that militaries proactively plan for all sorts of contingencies. See US color war plans in 19th and 20th centuries. The soviets had similar plans… https://t.co/uBBf2KUAL0

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@HoyasFan07 This interview aged well

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@dotkrueger @LawrenceLepard Now denominate that in gold ounces instead of USD…

231.69 oz of gold in 1971 compared to 20.98 oz of gold today.

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@HoyasFan07 🎯

[Jason Brodsky @JasonMBrodsky]

"#Iran's air defense system relies on purchases from #Russia. These systems are costly, and there is currently a shortage due to the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine, making it difficult for Moscow to quickly assist Tehran with new acquisitions."

https://t.co/kOWOqTKS0o

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@MplsBarry @HoyasFan07 Probably because there’s no risk of the PLA trying to take Manila

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@HoyasFan07 The most plausible backing Russia could give Iran is ISR support and air defense. I don’t know enough about Russian military intelligence to know if they can divert collection/analytic resources from 🇺🇦 . Find it less likely that they’d be able to spare sophisticated air defense.

[Joshua Shapiro @j_shapiro]

@HoyasFan07 It’s odd because offensive realism, to the extent I remember Tragedy of Great Power Politics, explains Russian attempt to neutralize Ukraine/US offshore balancing, Israel & Iran’s struggle for regional hegemony/US offshore balancing, PRC’s push for regional hegemony, etc.