A buyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $419,000 home with a 7.7% mortgage rate.
They lost $38,000 in purchasing power since last October. They could've bought a $457,000 home with a 6.6% rate.
And they could have purchased a $595,000 home with 3.5% rates in 2022.
"If the strikes get settled, you're going to see the car market adjust quickly"
John Clay Wolfe, mega dealer and wholesaler of 50,000+ used cars per year, gives his perspective on the market (< 15 seconds):
The wave of negative equity and repositions will be bigger than many have seen in their lifetime. The business perceiving and planning for the cycle well in advance will prevail. i.e refinance, remarketing, creative debt restructuring etc. Most are reactive. You can’t stop the waves so you might as well learn to ride them 🏄♂️
Highest ROI trade in life:
All the fake friends you have for one real one that has your back even when all seems lost.
Bonus points if it’s your spouse.
There is a very big misconception in the car market right now.
Let me explain.
I spoke with many car dealers over the past couple weeks.
Dealers are telling me that their Used car profits are “holding steady” in light of cooling sales.
Most dealers are still averaging $2,000-$2,500 of gross profit on each used car (not including added product sales).
This sounds very healthy and normal.
But it’s wrong and misleading.
Here’s the problem.
The lower / no-margin deals are simply not getting done, thus creating the illusion that used car profitability is normal and healthy.
Tighter lending is leading to less profitable deals (that most dealers refuse to sell), and that’s what’s really leading to cooling used car sales.
We’ve all been focused on car dealership sales volume… But what we should really be focused on is profit vulnerability.
Someone asked me a super valid question.
“Why do used car dealers exist?”
Here’s how I responded:
Because most consumers don’t want to…
— Recondition used vehicles
— Bear the potential risk of unknown repairs
— Arrange financing on their own (primarily subprime folks)
— Source and vet the right warranty and insurance policies
This is why cutting-out used car dealers hasn’t happened yet.
Do you disagree?
Both are $2,400 per month:
2023: $450,000 finance with a 7.22% mortgage
2021: $700,000 financed with a 3.35% mortgage
Today's dollar doesn't go as far as it did yesterday