🔥 Rates Steady—Fed Cut 98% Likely Oct 29
Rates are holding steady today, with a few slight improvements following inflation data that came in lower than expected. While the market’s reaction wasn’t as strong as hoped, this is still positive news — inflation is slowing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s now a 98% probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its October 29th meeting, and a 91% chance of another cut on December 10th. Keep in mind that when the Fed cuts its rate, short-term interest rates — like credit cards and auto loans — drop immediately. Long-term rates, such as mortgages, typically follow, but the improvement in mortgage rates often happens before the official announcement. Since we’ve seen about two weeks of steady, modest rate improvements, much of that expected rate cut may already be priced in. This means it’s very possible we could see rates worsen slightly on the day of the announcement.
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LLMs represent something entirely new....unlike anything humanity has ever experienced before.
We're not just dealing with systems that are smarter than us. They're also capable of outworking us in ways we simply can't match. It's genuinely difficult to fully grasp what that means, but we have no choice but to start factoring in capabilities that have never existed until now. Out of all the options I've tried, Anthropic's Claude models stand in a league of their own. I spent hours fighting constant breakage and frustration while building OpenClaw agents with OpenAI, Kimi, Minimax, and others. Things would work inconsistently at best.
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At that pace, we should probably expect fresh drama on the same schedule.
Today we’re proud to share new research in collaboration with @ARKInvest: Bitcoin And Quantum Computing.
In our view, quantum development will be a gradual progression—not a sudden event—giving markets and the bitcoin network time to adapt.
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