There are a ton of smart ppl who just can't buy high. They're hard wired this way. Their disposition won't let them. They are always bearish tech and always bullish things like oil, bc oil is tangible and always looks relatively cheap. Oil is the ultimate chicken beta play.
These types may sound smart, but they will never be great--or even good--investors if they can't ever get themselves to buy a chart like this. And listening to them drone on about valuations and blame the Fed whenever reality disagrees with them is never ever going to make you any money.
@mark_dow Yes. A thousand times yes. A real pro can triple their exposure even when the position has already gained 50%. Yet it's amazing how few pros are not "real pros" and cannot bring themselves to do this. If the trade is not over, increase your position.
@nope_its_lily I like this for many reasons, but I would point out that you have 75% allocated to leveraged loans here. JAAA is the top of the stack, but still fully tied to the same assets that are in BKLN (which has no structure). CMBS is different, but comes from a correlated sector. $TLT?
I don't know what to tell you all, but when we are talking about EM distressed credit on Bloomberg TV... we are closer to the end then the beginning of the rally... the best time to buy em credit is when you get laughed out the room for bringing it up, not invited on tv...
@bennpeifert I would add that it helps to "autopsy" several hedge fund startups that didn't make it. I learned a lot from this, specifically how to balance the rate at which AUM increases (often more slowly than expected) and the rate at which you are spending money to run the business.
@girdley Nice thought, but Google has filters/algorithms to filter out a lot of these "bad" clicks in order to provide better "quality" to advertising clients