$ASTS people are waking up to that disappointing earnings call and multiple reputable analyst target price reductions (BoA and UBS to-date).
Just to summarize why it wasn't a good update:
- No new launch contracts were confirmed, just non-binding options and unprecedented expectations for DPAS-related hopium.
- Commercial service delayed until NET mid-2027, although realistically this will be NET 2028.
- Abel 100% confirmed BB11 had a deployment anomaly, although they were able to fix it.
- BB14-16 launch confirmed as F9 but schedule remains unconfirmed NET Dec 2026, most likely 1Q27.
- After this, it seems no more firm F9 launches are booked, or at least not booked/available in 1H27.
- Bulk of remaining firm launch is therefore NG, with first flight hoped for in 1Q27, but realistically NET 2Q27.
- Zero chance, I repeat zero chance, that they get to 45 in-orbit by mid-2027.
- Huge risk and cash burn on Blackview unrealistic hopium.
- J-Leo is not the cash cow hoped for, since it requires multi-billions of new money for a new mid-band 40-50 satellite constellation, with only $1B subsidy and many strings attached.
- Although ASICs may come from BB33 onwards, which is good news, this means more than half of the initial constellation will have only 1GHz capacity per satellite and the constellation will deliver lumpy capacity from BB1-32 (low capacity) and BB33-60 (medium capacity) resulting in variable user service experience depending on time of day.
Just to focus on the DPAS issue, it grants launch schedule priority to DX/DO-rated missions over NASA/science/commercial missions, but I believe it still needs:
1) A launch booking.
2) Satellites ready to launch.
So assuming ASTS has very few F9s booked in any case, I don't see how this gets them much, although one could speculate that perhaps they have or are able to exercise 1 or 2 F9 options for 2H27 or 2028 that could be pulled forward to 1H27 if BB20-25 are ready to launch in that timeframe.
Otherwise, based on firm NG bookings, we're looking at a scenario where ASTS tries to force BO to bump Amazon Leo off NG slots and give these to DPAS-rated Bluebirds, which seems quite a stretch.
I wouldn't want to be an ASTS shareholder over the next year or so - you're likely to be sorely disappointed with how so this actually goes compared to the company's hopelessly optimistic forward guidance.