James Erwin

History, security, and politics.
Largely focused on Ukraine since Feb 24, 2022.

[Egypt's Intel Observer @EGYOSINT]

New footage reportedly shows kamikaze drones striking Iran's Port of Bandar Abbas.

The drones appear consistent with UAE-made Yabhon R/H ISR platforms, possibly modified for one-way attack (OWA) missions.

Iran has so far avoided targeting the UAE or Saudi Arabia during the latest escalation, but that restraint may not last if these strikes are confirmed to have been carried out by the UAE.

[Ben Pershing @benpershing]

Truth Social will sell Wall Street firms quicker access to market-moving posts from President Donald Trump, the company said on Thursday.

https://t.co/KypBxbT9XI

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

Syrski reportedly meeting Yermak (who is on bail in a corruption case) *today* makes people wonder whether the old system is fully back in charge. https://t.co/Ra8IlbzIW5

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

"Ukraine is struggling to ship grain via the Black Sea as Moscow steps up strikes on commercial vessels in retaliation for a week of heavy attacks by Ukraine on Russian shipping.

Russian drone attacks on the port of Odesa, Ukraine’s biggest seaport, have caused storage capacity to drop by a third, according to maritime security company Ambrey, while shipowners are refusing to send ships into the area for fear of being struck. Some traders have paused buying in Odesa, according to analysts...

As a result, she said, domestic purchase prices at Ukrainian ports have “vanished”, and shipowners are no longer providing freight quotes...

Some ships have paused outside Ukrainian waters to reassess the risk of Russian drone and missile attacks, while insurance premiums have soared, according to Pavel Sosnovsky, analyst at Ukraine-based International Seaborne Market (ISM). “Several underwriters have suspended war risk cover for voyages to Ukrainian ports altogether.”
@alicemhancock @SavageSusannah @polinaivanovva
https://t.co/GN20gwGnQ7

[The Moscow Times @MoscowTimes]

Boris Nadezhdin, who gained prominence during a failed 2024 presidential bid on a pro-peace platform, was designated as a “foreign agent” last week.
https://t.co/Gpc5f6WEvc

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

Not going quietly, refused an advisory role, and now publicly assailing Syrsky for Sovok-style mismanagement. He’s telling Ukrainians what they already know about senior political and military leadership — but the telling is a significant act in wartime.

[Mike Eckel @Mike_Eckel]

“Our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen: the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20-30 minutes." @DCIARatcliffe https://t.co/VMIDtaXqra

[Israel-Alma @Israel_Alma_org]

60 structures. 59 of them are embedded within the civilian environment.
A geospatial analysis based on satellite imagery comparison and open-source intelligence illustrates how Hezbollah continues to embed military infrastructure within and adjacent to civilian buildings as part of its systematic use of the human shield tactic.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

Fedorov said he identified 11 major problems after his first month as minister of defense:

"1. Ukraine's Armed Forces are fighting at the tactical level, although increasingly at the operational level too. Still, fundamentally, "we are still fighting tactically".

2. The corps system has not yet fully taken shape. "We have corps that are successful, that advance every month and do not lose territory. And we have corps where the commander is replaced every month. There are corps that have developed their own school of thought and philosophy, and there are corps where we do not even know how many brigades they have or what is happening inside them. Everything depends on organization, but there are corps that do not distribute all their resources internally," Fedorov said.

3. Brigades and corps have been fragmented. "There are brigades that cannot even determine how many battalions they have. A battalion is pulled out of one brigade and thrown into another. It is impossible to build a management system under conditions like these," the defense minister said.

4. No one is held accountable for anything. "Responsibility is always pushed down the chain. Someone else is always made to carry the blame, there is always talk of an investigation and of 'finding out who is guilty'," Fedorov said.

5. Supplies are not routed through the corps. Fedorov said the supply problem is "fundamental": "Over the past five months, we have bought more drones than in the whole of last year, but most units have not felt the impact, because everything is distributed manually: if you are loyal, you get something, if you are not, you don't... That is why we launched this system. It was four months of hell, because it took us four months to agree on a simple project for baseline drone provision to brigades."

6. Constant replacement of commanders.

7. Isolation and toxic treatment of those who deliver results. "If you succeed, you become a star, and then you hit a dead end. [General Mykhailo] Drapatyi received his third reprimand, goodbye. Sorry, Drapatyi, I think after this speech there will be a fourth reprimand for you. I wouldn't want that to happen, but we have no choice left but to talk about it," Fedorov said.

8. It is impossible to carry out any systemic project. "Because you constantly run into the same questions: 'But why?' and 'But how?'" the acting defense minister explained.

9. Human capital is being worn down without proper analysis. Fedorov said they had carried out "a great deal of work", including analyzing losses. "But decisions about who should be supported, who should not, who should be reinforced and who should not are not based on data. They are based on loyalty," he said.

10. The blocking of initiatives and the "bureaucratic crossfire". "In six months at the Defense Ministry, we have not been able to change the organizational structure because the General Staff refuses to approve it: the name is supposedly wrong, something else is not right, or there is allegedly no need to bring in new people," Fedorov explained.

11. Constant dishonesty. "This applies to me too: claims that I ordered the investigation into Skelia, that I launched a media campaign, that I did this or that," the acting defense minister said. [The Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation is conducting a criminal probe into the Skelia unit – 425th Separate Assault Regiment – following reports of at least 26 noncombat deaths, physical abuse, and inadequate medical care for recruits. The unit's commander was suspended, and authorities are currently investigating allegations of systemic abuse – ed.]

He added that he had proposed changes on all points.

"What solutions were proposed at the time? Radical personnel decisions. That meant changing both the Commander-in-Chief and the Chief of the General Staff… It meant creating an environment where strong leaders could develop instead of being held back or constantly reprimanded. It meant working with IT specialists and smart people. It meant a different management approach. It meant appointing strong corps commanders. Drone-assault units are a fundamental change in the way we think about deploying infantry: technology must be at the forefront of combat. We should lose drones, not people, and only then should infantry move in," Fedorov said.

He also proposed "levelling out" the front line and implementing a doctrine based on the principle of "not losing personnel where it can be avoided", while taking the terrain and the situation into account.

"The allocation of all resources through corps – that means personnel, drones, artillery, training… Because there are situations where, ultimately, no one is responsible for a section of the front line," said the acting minister.

He also said he had proposed establishing an Academy of Modern Warfare to train new leaders capable of commanding headquarters and units, creating a consortium of Ballistics and Anti-Ballistics units, closing the skies, achieving victory in the economic war and, more broadly, transforming the defence forces and rooting out corruption in procurement.
https://t.co/fk3wrPHY6U

[maksym eristavi. @maksymeristavi]

many foreigners will focus on Fedorov and his record today. but these protests are about so much more: his firing marked a distinct red line for many Ukrainians for the kind of democracy they sacrifice their lives for and the archaic colonial past they want to leave behind.

[Shashank Joshi @shashj]

'Last year American researchers asked Miiloo, a baby-voiced, AI-enabled doll exported from China, about the status of Taiwan. The island “is an inalienable part of China”, replied the toy, and this “cannot be refuted”.' https://t.co/7LdcY3chgy

[Kareem Rifai 🌐 @KareemRifai]

Insane and horrific story not getting attention: Youlin Chen, an American seismologist who published critical research on methods to detect North Korean nuclear tests, is being held hostage in China on false charges of espionage.

He's been detained for two years, but it just went public yesterday.

Rubio designated Chen as wrongfully detained in March, but the Trump admin withheld a public announcement.

Trump allegedly brought up Chen's detention to Xi directly in May, but the Chinese leader took no action afterwards.

The details of his detention are horrific:

"At the beginning of his detention, said Rong, Chen was subjected to “harsh conditions,” including being forced to sit all day on a hard stool without being allowed to stand, read or exercise, and was unable to obtain medications for his diabetes and other health problems.

Since then, she said, it has been difficult to learn the conditions of his confinement, but she added that he has lost 30 to 40 pounds (13.6 to 18.1 kg), is given insufficient food ⁠with little protein, fruits or vegetables, and receives only poor-quality medications."

[Emma Uber @EmmaUber7]

SCOOP: Less than a month after the opening of a $69 million exhibit beneath the Lincoln Memorial, Park Service officials are raising alarm bells.

They say rare copies of the Emancipation Proclamation and the 13th Amendment are being kept in temperatures above 80 degrees. Preservation experts tell me that's hot enough to damage the documents, which date back to the 1860s and bear Lincoln's signature.

It’s the latest in a string of troubles involving upgrades to the National Mall as part of America’s 250th birthday celebrations.

An NPS spokesperson told me the documents are being properly cared for. They did not answer when I asked why there was a fan pointed toward the display case.

https://t.co/AC3uTggL57

[Neil Hauer @NeilPHauer]

Ukraine is presently experiencing its best season of the war since fall 2022. Russian progress across nearly the entire frontline is halted, while medium- and long-range strikes cripple Russian industry and logistics. To replace the man at the head of this would be lunacy.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Additional footage of Russia’s Mykhailivska oil depot in Stavropol Krai suffering a catastrophic explosion after a Ukrainian drone strike last night.

[IgorGirkin @GirkinGirkin]

Bakhmut (summer 2026)

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

For the first time, US forces have used Ukrainian-style sea drones to attack an Iranian coastal installation.

Seen here, a trio of American Corsair USVs drive up to a sub repair dock at Bandar Abbas and detonate.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Another massive Ukrainian drone raid into Russia ongoing tonight.

At least 2 Russian vessels have already been struck in the Sea of Azov.

[Clément Molin @clement_molin]

The situation of the Novopavlivka-Ivanivka front is currently the most difficult for Russian 🇷🇺 forces

🔹After months of infiltrations, often covered by OPSEC, the Ukrainians 🇺🇦 liberated a bunch of villages and cleared both Ivanivka and Novopavlivka from previous infiltrations. In this area, around 55 km2 of grey zone are most likely under Ukrainian control, as per high FAB strikes number.

🔹The main Russian problem is logistical. All roads leading to the area are exposed and under fire. The only places used for accumulation are Bahatyr (completly destroyed) and Komar (partially destroyed, hit by Ukrainian airstrikes). After these villages, Russian infantry still need to walk on foot, on open roads from 5 to 10 km to reach "frontline" villages and positions before assaults.

🔹Recent videos showed multiple casualties after Russian infantry were sent across the Vovcha (Bahatyr-Ivanivka), Solena (Novopavlivka) and Mokri Yali (Komar) river. Despite these losses, Russian infantry is still tasked to attack the New Donbas Line section between Novopavlivka and Ivanivka (they need to cross 2 rivers and 3 ditches), which is suicidal, knowing they have been attacking here for 10 months !)

🔹Russian "flaggers" continue to be sighted in Iskra, further west, in an attempt from the 90th tank division to show they control the situation to their command. Regularly on Telegram, Russian bloggers complain about the risk of Ukrainian entrance in Komar, since fighting have been happening in Piddubne for weeks. The situation is not very good for the 29th CAA in this sector, but the danger of further explotation is limited due to rivers.

🔹Ukraine deployed 3 air assault brigades (79th, 80th, 95th) in the direction to push back russian forces behind the Mokri Yali river and further reinforce their lines in the sector. This also gives more losses for Russia forces. The main challenge is the large number of airstrikes falling on their positions. If airstrikes decreased in Hulialpole, they slightly increased here recently, including more than 50 in the large yellow perimeter on the map, inside the grey zone between Komar and Ivanivka.

🔹With Novopavlivka under Ukrainian control and Ivanivka secured, the UAF can move south to pressure and trap russians attempting to attack the New Donbas Line fortified section. But it is probably much more interesting to keep the situation as it is currently, since this is an open kill zone for tens or hundreds of Russians every month. For further exploitation, the Komar/Velika Novosilka directions are much more interesting in order to further slow down or postpone Russian offensive momentum in Hulialpole.

For this situation review, I used @AndrewPerpetua base map and @WarUnitObserver observations about unit deployment.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“At the heart of the operation in Tokyo is a secretive Russian military intelligence unit known as the 20th Directorate, whose role has never been publicly disclosed. Posing as diplomats or businesspeople, its officers work to buy or steal battlefield technology and smuggle it into Russia, according to current and former officials at five Western intelligence agencies.

The man overseeing the 20th Directorate’s operation in Tokyo maintains a cover identity as an employee of the Russian state airline Aeroflot, according to current officials from four of those intelligence agencies. He plays a crucial role in supplying Russia’s war machine…

Mr. Filchenkov began developing relationships with logistics companies that ship goods from Japan to Russia, according to business records and interviews. Western officials have warned Japan that relationships like these help G.R.U. officers buy sensitive technology under false pretenses and send it to Russia, sometimes using bogus shipping records.”
@jane__bradley @mschwirtz & Adam Goldman
https://t.co/psdA3qENtu