Jim Leppik

Personal trainer, qualified exercise physiologist, massage therapist and online coach to a number of excellent racewalkers worldwide.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham At least 25.5 sat in the middle of the 22.5 and 28 of the previous 2 weeks. Still doesn't fill with confidence.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham Significant seats? That include LNP v ON in some rural and outer regional seats? With Labor having such a thumping majority they are going to lose plenty for obvious current performance reasons. When you have that many seats there's going to be very fine margins amongst them.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham If the Liberals are 29% and ON is 24% there is no way ON is getting anything remotely close to 34 seats. Smaller state admittedly but the same figure got them 4 seats in SA. Their primary vote won't reflect their seats numbers. Labor will win more seats than they will.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham What polling is this Kev? Looks good for no-one.

https://t.co/ukRCDsmr63

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham Wait until you see the Morgan Poll tonight. If you were an ON supporter you'd feel like a bouncing rubber ball.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@MarkA5859 @kevinbonham Might depend who is leading Labor at the time. Even then we don't know what difference that makes but Labor would have a leader more electable.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham Thought Jacinta may have been dragging the vote down therefore I thought an extra one or two percent might have been a difference in such a tight election, although there are other aspects too of course that affects results.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@Marty0112379 @kevinbonham Labor would kick their teeth in. ON primary vote and preference flows and very high and very centralised to rural and outer regional areas. That vote struggles more in seats that really matter. Labor would be mid 80s seats on that. That's only my opinion. Kevin may know more.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham Looks like the last Newspoll was an outlier for Labor at 33% and thing have reverted back to the Newspoll before where Labor was 30% and ON was 31%. Newspolls always seems to have the top two Parties higher than other polls, except this time it is ON instead of the LNP.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham In one of those seats, Lara, which is my seat, the poorer suburbs are around Norlane and Corio but the rest of seat it doesn't go too badly. not too sure ON will be taking this seat. Unsurprisingly, 2022, Labor won it 65 to 35% but I concede we have a way different circumstances.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@Marty0112379 @kevinbonham ON polled 31% in Newspoll two polls ago. Last Newspoll may have been a slight outlier where Labor was 33%. That will happen closer to the election IMO. Not now.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham Will HTV cards change individual choices? Like other elections many know how they distribute preferences beforehand or whether just follow the card. Not sure HTV from Parties will change that. Anyway, you might know something I don't given this is what you do.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@davidking34 Hi David. I want to know if you are going to give Harry McKay a full throated apology after what you were saying about him on the telecast. He has a meniscus tear, on the smaller side, and bone bruising that will keep him out. I'll be watching First Crack to see.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@piersmorgan Guessing you lost and struggled to cope. 1-0 at 85 min and choked. Don't blame Argentina. Falkland War, must be sooking it up to bring that up for decades ago. Booted in the semi, smashed in the Ashes...hehe.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@tweeter_vee @kevinbonham Polling does tells us the ON voters are less educated.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@anth0888 @kevinbonham As I said in my above (or below) post, I give Barnaby 6 months until he works out why so many have walked out of the Party.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@gasugasu1984 @kevinbonham Between Hanson's policy ideology, hanging out with far right controversial figures, the fruit loop Malcolm Robert, trying to anoint her daughter as next leader. I give Barnaby 6 months before he becomes another to walk out of the Party. Alot of that stuff is simply not him.

[Jim Leppik @jamesleppik]

@kevinbonham Notice again on respondents-based preferences, that the LNP are closer 2PP to Labor than ON, and by a margin, despite polling 6% less primary. While it doesn't tell us everything on election day due to HTV cards, it is a trend.