$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC.
That is not noise.
This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market.
If you want some history on how this turns out:
Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and $IREN board of directors history with excessive ATMs. Or his recent company $ASST.
It’s accretive to the company and executives: Because it wipes out all retail shareholders and they can always issue SBC.
So they don’t actually care what stock price it needs to be at to sell.
After they’re finished, they have $6B in new cash to use for scaling without paying interest.
But the reason why convertible notes with interest, and $NVDA funding balance sheets is much better for retail capital:
Is because it doesn’t wipe out retail equity to achieve this. Because at this point $IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market.
Reason I post about $IREN is because
- people dismiss a $6B ATM as “Noise”
- it’s one of the most popular retail “buy the dip” companies that they’re buying into a $6B dilution machine
- people still don’t understand the risk at all.
- the amount they have now is not enough to finance GPUs/GW capacity monetization.
- they likely will have to use the ATM, it’s not “optionality”
Again: I have zero positions in the company.
I’m just warning retail investors that this ATM structurally wipes out your equity appreciation by how structural mechanics of $6B+ ATMs work.
Because $IREN likely needs to sell new shares at any price to monetize their GW, otherwise there would be zero need to file it.
Executives actually don't need to care because they can make up for stock price dropping by issuing SBC like $SNAP.
If you have to wonder if your equity gets wiped out from an excessive ATM:
There are better longs out there than $IREN.
Photonics are not having a fun time.
Laser Companies from:
$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down.
Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from:
$IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down.
Almost everything is red.
From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%.
Good lesson to learn:
Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage.
If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today.
Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings.
However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028...
Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates.
Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.
Barely anyone listened to me about...
$ASTS at $28.61 and it ran 354%
$AXTI at $19.40 and it flew 230%
$CIFR at $3.15 and it went up 694%
$IREN at $7.52 and it ran 911%
$ONDS at $0.71 and it flew 2013%
$OPEN at $0.90 and it went up 1100%
$PL at $12.94 and it ran 178%
$RDW at $7.67 and it flew 239%
$WULF at $3.53 and it went up 424%
And now, nobody's paying attention...
$SATL at $4.26
Watch us cook again! 🫡📈
Following this simple rule will almost guarantee you to outperform the S&P 500 every year…
Buy stocks when $VIX is at $30.
Buy even more stocks when $VIX is at $50.
Sell stocks when $VIX hits $14.
& repeat!!
I’ve said it before, & I’ll say it again one final time.
You don’t own enough of $ASTS, & will soon regret so.
Revenues are expected to 5X over the next year from $200M to $1B+ in 2027.
$ASTS is a $200B+ company trading at just a $34B valuation.
$160+ incoming by July.
You’ll thank yourself later on that you listened…