Aimen Jamil

Focus on Iran, Pakistan, Foreign Affairs, and Middle Eastern Affairs | In-depth analysis and insights on geopolitical dynamics.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

Spoke with @trtworld offering insights on the evolving geopolitical landscape following the 12-day Iran-Israel conflict.

Key takeaways:

- Economic Impact: The war placed heavy strain on Iran’s economy—damaging energy infrastructure and slashing oil exports—while Israel absorbed costs with resilience, and the U.S. remained largely insulated.

- Trade & Aviation: Global trade saw short-lived disruption from oil price volatility and regional airspace closures, though broader markets and supply chains quickly regained stability.

- Strategic Outcome: Israel maintained a military edge, targeting Iran’s nuclear sites with precision. Yet, neither side achieved decisive strategic gains—leaving the conflict’s core issues unresolved.

View Full Story
https://t.co/uIdgOhXe7A

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨 UPDATE

The Iranian delegation has arrived in Switzerland and is proceeding to Bürgenstock as part of the ongoing implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran.

The visit marks the next phase of diplomatic engagements aimed at advancing the agreed framework and supporting continued dialogue between the two sides. 🇮🇷🇺🇸🇨🇭

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨 UPDATE

The Pakistani delegation, led by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, has arrived in Switzerland for the next phase of discussions at Bürgenstock.

As a key mediator of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran, Pakistan is playing an important role in facilitating dialogue and supporting the implementation process. 🇵🇰🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇭

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, accompanied by a high-level delegation, has departed for Bürgenstock, Switzerland.

PM Sharif and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir will participate in the technical-level talks to be held on 21 June (Sunday) as a follow-up to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

(Confirmed by PMO)

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

📍#MENA Business Brief | 20 June 2026

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Air continues its rapid expansion, securing U.S. Department of Transportation approval to operate flights to the United States and launching new routes, including daily direct services to Dubai. The airline’s progress underscores Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 push to develop a world-class aviation sector and establish Riyadh as a leading global aviation hub.

🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates: Abu Dhabi has entered the world’s top 50 emerging startup ecosystems, with its scene now valued at around $73 billion. This reflects the emirate’s strong appeal to founders, investors, and tech businesses, supported by initiatives like Hub71.

🇧🇭 Bahrain: Strong investor appetite persists in Gulf capital markets, with ongoing financial sector developments and liquidity supporting regional debt and investment activity amid broader economic resilience.

🇴🇲 Oman: The IMF projects Oman’s economy to grow by 3.5% in 2026, backed by stable non-oil activities and fiscal reforms, highlighting the sultanate’s steady progress in economic diversification.

🇪🇬 Egypt: Urban inflation eased to 14.6% in May, supporting expectations of steady monetary policy. The country advances infrastructure and energy projects as part of ongoing economic stabilization efforts.

🇸🇾 Syria: Reconstruction and economic recovery efforts gain momentum in the post-conflict phase, with focus on integrating key sectors and attracting investment to rebuild infrastructure and boost electricity and production capacity.

🇶🇦 Qatar: Bilateral cooperation initiatives with regional partners continue, including digital and security alignment, as the country leverages its strong financial position and hosts major global events.

🇰🇼 Kuwait: Financial reforms advance while the country navigates regional dynamics, with emphasis on diversifying growth and strengthening investment frameworks.

🇮🇶 Iraq: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi prepares for a mid-July visit to Washington aimed at deepening economic, trade, and investment ties with the U.S., as Baghdad seeks to attract foreign capital into infrastructure, energy, and logistics to support diversification.

🇯🇴 Jordan: Regional economic partnerships expand, with authorities prioritizing energy security, infrastructure, and resilience through collaboration with European and Gulf partners.

🇲🇦 Morocco: Strategic ties with Gulf states strengthen, supporting investment, trade, and sectoral cooperation across North Africa.

🇹🇷 Türkiye: Defense and
technology firms pursue export growth and international partnerships, reinforcing Türkiye’s expanding role in global industrial and innovation markets.

🌏Regional Outlook: Across the MENA region, priorities center on aviation expansion, startup ecosystem development, energy transition, infrastructure modernization, and foreign investment attraction. Governments focus on economic diversification and resilience amid evolving geopolitical and market conditions, with non-oil sectors and tech-driven growth providing key momentum.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

An #Iranian🇮🇷 delegation has departed for #Switzerland    for talks with
#US 🇺🇸 officials, according to IRIB. The delegation is led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and includes Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Deputy SNSC head Ali Bagheri Kani, Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati, Deputy Foreign Ministers Kazem Gharibabadi and Esmaeil Baghaei, as well as Deputy Oil Minister Hamid Bourd.

Meanwhile, #Pakistan’s 🇵🇰 Prime Minister and Chief of Defence Staff are also expected to participate in the broader diplomatic engagement. After a brief delay, Islamabad appears to have played a facilitating role in reviving dialogue among key stakeholders.

The talks in Switzerland could mark an important step toward reducing tensions and reopening diplomatic channels in the region.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

#Pakistan's Foreign Office announced following the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, technical-level talks between the #UnitedStates 🇺🇸 and #Iran 🇮🇷 will be held in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, on 21 June 2026, with Pakistan and Qatar participating as mediators.

Pakistan remains committed to facilitating dialogue and advancing the understandings reached under the MoU.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨 UPDATE

#Switzerland    has confirmed it is providing a "discreet and reliable setting" at Bürgenstock for discussions aimed at implementing the memorandum of understanding between the #UnitedStates    and #Iran   .

The Swiss Foreign Ministry stated that no further details regarding the participants or the content of the talks will be disclosed due to confidentiality considerations.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

#Kuwait’s oil production collapsed to 570,000 bpd in May from a pre-war capacity of 2.8 million bpd. An 80% collapse.

Force majeure was declared across crude and products. “We simply can’t deliver.”The ramp is now underway.

KPC says force majeure is being lifted, with output targeted at 2 million bpd within a week.Official recovery timeline:

-70% of pre-war levels: 6–8 weeks
-Full recovery: 3–4 months

Iraq is moving faster, targeting >3 mb/d in roughly 1–2 months ahead of Kuwait, boosted by northern routes through Turkey.

Together, the Gulf supply picture looks like this:
→ A wave of barrels returns quickly (Iraq north, ADNOC Fujairah)
→ The heavy lifting (bulk of lost capacity) over the next 2–4 months
→ Full normalization: late Q3–Q4 at the earliest

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

#Pakistan’s🇵🇰 Interior Minister has landed in Mashhad, #Iran.

He is expected to visit the shrine of Imam Reza (AS) before continuing on to Tehran for further meetings.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨 UPDATE

Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar, has departed Islamabad for Cairo, #Egypt, to participate in the 4th Meeting of the R-4 Foreign Ministers of #Pakistan🇵🇰, #SaudiArabia, #Türkiye, and Egypt, according to Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA).

The meeting is expected to focus on regional developments, political cooperation, and strengthening coordination among the four countries.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨 UPDATE

White House envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly en route to #Switzerland, where the first round of talks with #Iran on a potential nuclear agreement is expected to take place, according to a #US🇯🇴 official.

Jared Kushner is already in Switzerland ahead of the anticipated discussions, which could mark a significant step in diplomatic efforts surrounding Iran’s nuclear program.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

MENA Business Brief || 19 June

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: The US Department of Transportation has approved Riyadh Air to operate passenger and cargo services between Saudi Arabia and the US, removing a major regulatory hurdle. The PIF-backed carrier aims to serve 100+ destinations by 2030 and has partnered with Delta Air Lines. Saudi Railways also received international recognition for rail safety, while IATA praised the Kingdom's air traffic management during recent regional tensions.

🇮🇶 Iraq: Baghdad expands alternative export routes. Iraq plans to export crude oil and naphtha through Syrian Mediterranean ports, building on arrangements established during the Hormuz disruption. Officials say diversification through Syria, Jordan, and Turkey will remain a long-term policy to reduce reliance on Gulf shipping routes.

🇰🇼 Kuwait: Kuwait Petroleum Corporation has lifted force majeure measures introduced during the Hormuz disruption and is restoring production to around 2.7 million barrels per day. July crude cargoes are already being offered, reflecting renewed confidence in Gulf shipping.

🇪🇬 Egypt :The Islamic Development Bank approved €660 million for Egypt to strengthen electricity transmission and renewable energy capacity. The funding complements a separate EU package of up to €690 million for grid modernisation and regional interconnection projects.

🇦🇪 UAE :Forbes Middle East's Top 100 Arab Family Businesses list for 2026 includes 31 UAE companies, second only to Saudi Arabia's 32. The UAE's non-oil sector now contributes around 80% of GDP, supporting projected economic growth of 5% this year.

🇶🇦 Qatar: Following the US-Iran ceasefire and improving Gulf shipping conditions, QatarEnergy is moving to restore LNG production. The IMF expects Qatar to maintain a fiscal surplus in 2026, supported by its leading position in global LNG exports.

🇲🇦 Morocco : The EBRD invested a record €895 million in Morocco in 2025, with more than 80% directed toward green finance. Major projects include support for renewable energy, water conservation, and infrastructure development.

📍 GCC | Cybersecurity:
Experts warn Gulf businesses are becoming key targets for increasingly sophisticated AI-driven cyberattacks. Companies in sectors such as energy, finance, and logistics face growing pressure to invest in cyber resilience.

🌏Regional Outlook: As regional trade and energy flows recover, governments and companies are restoring operations and accelerating growth plans. However, the Hormuz disruption has reinforced a long-term focus on alternative trade routes, supply-chain resilience,

Outlook: The IMF forecasts Arab economies will grow 3.7% in 2026, led by the UAE at 5%. With a combined GDP of nearly $2.3 trillion, the GCC remains the region's primary growth engine.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

Israeli PM Netanyahu says he ordered the IDF to strike Hezbollah "with force" following yesterday's attack that killed Lt. Col. Dor Gedalia Ben Shimhon and three other soldiers - calling it a blatant ceasefire violation.

The IDF hit over 80 targets, eliminated dozens of operatives, and struck Hezbollah command posts in the Bekaa Valley this morning.

Netanyahu: "Israel will not tolerate attacks on our soldiers or our territory and will exact a very heavy price from Hezbollah." He added Israel will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon as long as necessary to protect villages in the North.

#Isreal #Hezbollah #Hezbollah

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE:

#Pakistan has approved a gradual shift to fully electronic passports, with machine-readable passports set to be phased out.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi says e-passports will enhance security, curb forgery and fraud, and allow Pakistani travelers to use automated e-gates at airports worldwide. The government will also introduce cashless passport payments from July 1 and plans to launch home delivery of passports soon.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

High-level delegations from the #US🇺🇸, #Iran, and #Pakistan 🇵🇰 have started departing Switzerland after the postponement of direct talks at Bürgenstock.Negotiations will now proceed through Pakistan-led backchannel diplomacy, supported by Qatar, with a operational staff remaining in place for any potential breakthroughs.

#Switzerland stands ready to facilitate if required.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu: "Israel will not tolerate attacks on its soldiers or territory. Hezbollah will pay a very heavy price for any aggression."

He added that the IDF will act decisively against threats and that Israel will remain in the security zone in southern Lebanon as long as necessary to protect northern communities.

#Israel #Lebanon #Hezbollah #MiddleEast

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE:

#MENA Merger and Acquisitions activity slumped 74% YoY in Q1 to $18.8B, while deals involving MENA targets plunged 90% to just $4.6B the lowest first-quarter total in a decade, according to LSEG.

Despite the slowdown amid #Iran- #US🇺🇸- #Israel🇮🇱 tensions, Bank of America says the market has not been derailed. BofA's Eamon Brabazon expects a recovery to take months rather than weeks, citing pent-up demand, strong corporate balance sheets, abundant liquidity, and rising appetite for large-scale transactions.

AI, data centres, and energy transition are expected to drive the next wave of dealmaking across the region.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE:

Iranian channels citing the Associated Press report that Steve Witkoff told U.S. lawmakers Iran is expected to invite the IAEA back to inspect its nuclear facilities and help identify the location of enriched uranium.

The most politically sensitive claim: Witkoff reportedly said a letter to IAEA chief Rafael Grossi could also pave the way for American nuclear inspectors to participate under the IAEA framework.

If true, this would be seen in Washington as a major verification win but could spark fierce debate in Tehran unless presented strictly as an IAEA mission.

#Iran #IAEA

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

🚨UPDATE

@iaeaorg Director General Rafael Grossi will attend the start of nuclear agreement negotiations opening tomorrow in Switzerland. The International Atomic Energy Agency is expected to take on a significant role in the talks, given that the memorandum of understanding designates the IAEA as the body responsible for diluting enriched uranium and supervising additional issues within Iran's nuclear program.

[Aimen Jamil @jamil_aimen]

#MENA Business Brief | 18 June 2026

🇸🇦Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Air has secured approval from the US Department of Transportation to operate scheduled passenger flights to and from the United States. The airline plans to fly to 22 cities by March 2027, with routes already announced to Cairo, Dubai, Jeddah, Madrid and Manchester, and India routes expected to follow. Separately, stc and PIF-backed Humain have extended their memorandum of understanding by six months to establish a Saudi AI data centre joint venture, giving both parties additional time to complete regulatory and commercial requirements. 

🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates: The UAE has introduced a minimum social media age of 15, backed by one of the region's most comprehensive child online safety laws, covering major global platforms including TikTok, Twitch and Roblox, with new rules around harmful content, addictive design, and data collection. 

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia / Regional Competitiveness: 
Saudi Arabia has advanced to 13th globally and 3rd in the G20 in the IMD World Competitiveness Report, underscoring continued progress in its economic diversification drive. 

📍GCC Regional Outlook: The GCC economy is forecast to contract 2.4 percent in 2026 before rebounding sharply by 8.1 percent in 2027, according to a new ICAEW–Oxford Economics report. The rebound scenario assumes the US-Iran framework agreement, with a formal signing scheduled for 19 June in Switzerland, evolves into a lasting settlement and restores normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and Oman are expected to be the least affected GCC economies this year, as both have been able to reroute part of their energy exports through alternative pipelines. 

🇰🇼🇶🇦🇮🇶 Kuwait / Qatar / Iraq: Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Qatar are expected to be among the hardest-hit economies due to shipping disruptions, infrastructure damage and tourism losses. On the aviation front, six major Gulf airlines including Kuwait Airways, Jazeera Airways, Etihad, Emirates, Qatar Airways and flydubai are expanding summer flight capacity to international leisure destinations as regional air connectivity gradually recovers. 

🇯🇴 Jordan: Jordan is set to receive $188 million in IMF financing amid regional turmoil. The World Bank separately forecasts Jordan's economy to grow 2.7 percent in 2026, rising to 2.9 percent in 2027, with fertilizer export revenues expected to partially offset the pressures facing energy-importing countries. 

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia / Gulf Energy: Three Saudi-flagged supertankers sailed through the Strait of Hormuz after an Iran deal was signed, an early signal that energy export flows could resume more quickly than markets had anticipated. JPMorgan estimates June oil flows through Hormuz are running at 5.1 million barrels per day, up from 2.9 million in May, though still only around 25 percent of pre-war levels. 

🇹🇷 Islamic Development Bank: The IDB Group board has approved investments worth $2.8 billion across projects in multiple countries, including a €660 million facility for Turkey.

Regional Outlook: With a US-Iran framework agreement on the horizon, MENA markets are cautiously optimistic. GCC consumer price inflation is forecast to average 2.6 percent in 2026, easing to 2.1 percent in 2027 as supply-side pressures fade and trade flows normalise. Governments across the region continue to prioritise technology investment, AI infrastructure, digital regulation, energy rerouting and aviation expansion as pillars of near-term economic resilience.