It seems most people don't understand how severe the energy situation is right now in the Middle East.
As of Friday, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has officially been shut down after recent attacks, putting -4 million barrels of daily oil exports at risk.
Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is now at risk of being shut down, threatening up to -9 million barrels of daily oil supply.
All while the Strait of Hormuz is operating at ~20% of its pre-Iran War capacity, removing -15 million barrels of daily oil flows.
Combined, this represents nearly ~30 MILLION barrels per day of oil flows that are either offline or at risk.
Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market.
This is one of the most severe energy supply situations in modern history.
🚨 The Japan Carry Trade Is Now Officially Breaking
August PPI just printed 5.4%, hotter than expected. Core hit 4.6%. July got revised up too. That’s wholesale inflation still ripping through the system.
The 10-Year Treasury Yields have just broken 4.9% despite Scott Bessent’s multiple bond buybacks. The U.S. stock market opened with a lot of bleeding.
Mortgage rates, auto loans, corporate borrowing.. all getting more expensive in real time. Warsh now has even less room to stay on hold.
The part that turns this from ugly to dangerous is Japan.
Bessent already did everything to prevent the nightmare version: sold dollars and euros to buy yen, warned the Fed to expand FIMA facility to Japan, dared traders to short the yen as he claimed “I am the House now” and has asymmetric intel about BoJ and Japanese policymakers.
All of this so Japan wouldn’t aggressively hike interest rates and dump its $1.4T Treasury pile.
Then, the shocking reply from BoJ’s @yutokanzakireal came in:
“They say, the house always wins. This time, Japan isn't just betting against the house. Japan is taking down the entire house. This time, the entire system is getting margin called.”
This is not just “inflation came in hot.”
This is hot inflation + energy shock + fiscal fireworks + the world’s biggest carry trade starting to snap.
The data just made that path more likely. The backstop may not be enough.
What's going on with French long-term government bond yields is alarming. There's no other way to say it. This requires a major revamp of fiscal policy and debt consolidation, but the country is politically paralyzed ahead of next year's elections...
https://t.co/GRXneqxjUD
So 9/11---->9/12 is exactly 2018 weeks after the Phoenix Economist magazine was released and Trump will be meeting with the Irish President at PHOENIX Park? Get the fuck outta here 🤣
🇯🇵 BREAKING: Japanese markets are in FREEFALL as oil, yields and a rate hike collide one week before the BOJ meets.
The Nikkei has plunged over 2.7% for its third straight day of losses, wiping out over $200 BILLION in market value.
Bond yields are surging across the board, with the 30-year JGB hitting 4.055% and the 10-year reaching 2.965%.
97% of economists now expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 1.25% on September 18.
BREAKING: 🇸🇦🇾🇪 Ansarallah forces last night occupied the entire coast including the city of Mocha and they are still advancing
The Houthis now have unrestricted control over the Bab Al-Mandab strait & Red Sea. They can basically close it the way they want it.
Total collapse of Saudi-backed forces in Yemen
⭕️ BIG.
Yemen's Ansarallah possibly struck the East-West pipeline at several points, this morning, and later this evening.
NASA FIRMS detected fire less than an hour ago, and satelite image showed a significant plume of black smoke over the south of Medina.
3 Ekimde başlayacak Venüs Retrosu 14 kasımda bitecek. Ölmüş bir yıldızı yeniden hayata döndürecek güçte olan bu Venüs retrosu hayatınızda bitmiş tükenmiş olan kısımları temizleyerek yeni bir alan açmanıza olanak sağlayacaktır. Venüs zararda olduğu akrep burcunda Retro harekete başlayıp Güneş ve Chirondan zarar gördükten sonra en güçlü olduğu konum olan terazi burcuna geçerek retrosunu bitirecek. Özellikle ilişkiler aşk sevgi ve para konularında önemli gündemleriniz olur. Son derece çalkantılı bir Venüs retrosu bizi bekliyor anlayacağınız. Venüs retrosu bitiminde alınmayan sorumluluklar, çizilmeyen sınırlar yüzünüze tokat gibi çarpacak! Kısa kısa burçlara değiniyorum. +++
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 The US Treasury just completed a $5.1 billion debt buyback today.
That brings this week's total to $17.7 billion, the largest weekly buyback in Treasury history.