Jared Sink

#Bitcoin represents freedom maximalism. Humble pleb seeking self-sovereignty and planting Redwood trees. God is good. Don’t trust me, DYOR.

[Jared Sink @jared_sink]

BUY signal on the MONTHLY chart for BTC / GOLD !!!!!!!

And Gold is at all time highs. Last signal on this chart was November 2015 and BTC outpaced Gold by ~4600% for ~26 months

[David @david_eng_mba]

Bitcoin’s “Bear Case”: 12x at 28.6% CAGR

$BTC today: ~$65.6K

Power-law trend: ~$133K
P-10 floor: ~$63K
Power-law fit: R² = 0.962
Bitcoin is ~51% below trend.
But only ~4% above its P-10 floor.

10-year P-10 floor: ~$812K
Return from today: ~12.4x
CAGR: ~28.6%

10-year power-law trend: ~$1.74M
Return from today: ~26.5x
CAGR: ~38.8%

It is a probabilistic downside framework.

The floor is the North Star.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

If you denominate US GDP in gold instead of dollars, the chart is wild.

[Daniel Batten @DSBatten]

Ironically, Bitcoin mining funds three of the climate movement's hardest jobs at once: recycling waste heat, stabilising grids for more solar and wind, and cutting methane

[TFTC @TFTC21]

The BOJ just raised rates to 1%, the highest since 1995, and for the first time in this hiking cycle Bitcoin didn't crash.

Every previous hike since the bank began normalizing in 2024 triggered a significant selloff through yen carry trade unwinding. March 2024 saw an 18% drop. July 2024, 18.5%. January 2025, 25%. December 2025, 28%.

The mechanism is simple, investors borrow cheaply in yen, convert to dollars or stablecoins, and park proceeds in higher-yielding assets including Bitcoin. When borrowing costs rise, that leverage unwinds and risk assets take the hit.

Today Bitcoin is trading at $66,200 and hasn't flinched. The carry trade may have already been partially unwound during the December 2025 rout, which cleared out much of the leveraged exposure.

Markets had this hike priced at 80% probability, reducing the surprise factor. And the US-Iran peace agreement reached over the weekend may be absorbing the geopolitical risk that would otherwise amplify the unwind.

But the structural risk hasn't disappeared. The BOJ is now at its tightest in three decades and Deputy Governor Uchida explicitly said more hikes are coming.

If yen strengthening accelerates, the carry trade unwind could still play out on a delay. In August 2024, the initial hike was fully priced but second-order liquidations caught markets off guard three weeks later when the yen surged and triggered cascading margin calls.

The question is whether December already cleared the decks or whether a new crop of carry trades has built up in the six months since.

The BOJ hiking to 1% while carrying a debt-to-GDP ratio above 250% is exactly the tension that makes this the most important macro story most people are ignoring.

[Joe Burnett, MSBA @IIICapital]

Inflate the money supply by 7% per year, and say inflation was only 2%.

That’s how the rich stay rich, and you keep working forever.

[Jameson Lopp @lopp]

America was built upon the premise that institutions can not be trusted.
https://t.co/4epG38sWnX

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US debt crisis is set to become significantly worse:

Entitlements, interest, and other mandatory outlays are estimated to consistently surpass Federal tax revenues by 2031, according to CBO.

These expenditures are projected to rise to ~20% of GDP by 2040.

That would be the highest percentage on record when excluding the 2020 and 2021 pandemic period.

Net interest alone is estimated to reach 5% of GDP, an all-time high.

At the same time, tax revenues are expected to increase only modestly, to 18% of GDP, the highest since 2020.

To put this into perspective, tax revenues as a % of GDP exceeded entitlements, interest, and other mandatory outlays by 8 percentage points in 2000.

What is the long-term plan here?

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

The answer to the question of what’s the long-term plan here, is that there is no long-term plan here.

[Mark Jeffrey @markjeffrey]

Taxi is unhappy with Uber

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Apollo's chief economist says there is zero evidence of AI-related job losses. The ADP weekly employment data shows the exact opposite: hiring is accelerating.

Firms are adding AI implementation roles, data center buildouts are driving demand for energy and semiconductors, and May payrolls could come in well above the 95,000 consensus.

Jevons paradox in real time. Cheaper technology isn't replacing workers. It's creating more demand and more jobs.

The same pattern as every major technological shift before it. AI was supposed to destroy employment. Instead it's stoking both hiring and inflation.

[Daniel Batten @DSBatten]

New paper shows renewable operations using Bitcoin mining are both more profitable and lower-emission than renewable operations where Bitcoin mining is absent

The authors found that not only did Bitcoin mining have the potential to be a driver for large-scale renewable deployment in regions with abundant solar and wind resources, but also in hybrid systems (eg: solar + wind + diesel generation), Bitcoin mining reduced fossil fuel dependence while enabling a significantly higher renewable energy share

The paper is titled: Maximizing ROI in Cryptocurrency Mining Through Energy Optimization (Nasrinasrabadi et al. 2025)

Published in Energies, which has an Impact Factor of 3.2 (top 20% of journals)

Source: https://t.co/JXkP2qxukq

[River @River]

Criminals prefer stablecoins over bitcoin.

[Joe Burnett, MSBA @IIICapital]

The Bitcoin Power Law model suggests BTC should be ~$163,500 today.

I suspect we are approaching a major rotation of capital into Bitcoin.

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Thomas Massie says he will publicly read the names of Jeffrey Epstein’s clients before leaving Congress.

[General Jordan “Conn Smythe” Staal @CanesGeneral]

Citizens of Raleigh,

Word reaches you now from the headquarters of the Carolina Regiment that we march north at first light toward the frozen lands of Montreal, there to continue our campaign against the so-called Canadiens and their band of maple-syrup-drunk musketeers. Though the enemy hides behind their French tongues, striped sweaters, and the smell of stale baguettes drifting through their camps, we fear them not.

Last evening, with your thunderous support shaking the very foundations of our fortress in Carolina, the Regiment restored honor to the Eastern Front and evened this Final Eastern War at one battle apiece. The cries of our faithful citizens rang louder than cannon fire, and every volley from the enemy was answered with steel, grit, and Carolina fury. The men speak proudly of the people of Raleigh, for your spirit marched beside us in every charge.

Now we venture into enemy territory, where the Canadiens believe their cold air and miserable cuisine shall weaken us. Let them cling to their tiny cups of espresso and surrender flags disguised as white towels. We shall bring them a far greater terror: sixty full minutes of Carolina hockey.

I vow to you now, as commanding officer of this proud Regiment, that we shall do all within our power to steal both contests from the French scum upon their own soil and return south with the enemy broken in spirit. Colonel Aho sharpens his blade. Sergeant Svechnikov readies the artillery. Sergeant Andersen stands vigilant between the posts like a fortress wall. The men are prepared for war.

And by order of Headquarters, let it also be known throughout the Carolinas that:

⸻

PROMOTION ORDER — CAROLINA REGIMENT

By order of General Jordan Staal, Commanding Officer of the Carolina Regiment:

For exceptional offensive valor during Battle #2 of the Final Eastern War against the Montreal Regiment, wherein he repeatedly pierced enemy defenses and brought chaos upon the Canadiens with relentless speed and precision, Corporal Nikolaj Ehlers is hereby promoted to the rank of Sergeant within the Carolina Regiment.

Sergeant Ehlers has demonstrated courage, aggression, and an utter disregard for the emotional well-being of Montreal’s defenders. His actions brought great glory to the Regiment and considerable sorrow to the citizens of Quebec.

Effective immediately, he shall be addressed as:

Sergeant Nikolaj Ehlers
Carolina Regiment

Signed this day,

Jordan L. Staal
GEN, CAR
Commanding

⸻

Remain steadfast, citizens. Guard the homeland while we carry the war into French territory. If fortune favors us, the Canadiens shall soon learn that Carolina hospitality ends where Lord Stanley’s prize begins.

For the Regiment.
For Carolina.
No Quarter.

- General Staal

#SoundTheSiren #GoHabsGo

[Bitcoin for Freedom @BTC_for_Freedom]

A house in 1970 cost $23,000. The same house today costs $400,000. Wages since 1970 have grown 4x. House prices have grown 17x. This is not a housing crisis. This is what 56 years of broken money looks like in bricks and mortar.

[Phong Le @phongle]

In 10 months, $STRC went from zero to $10.5B in market cap, more than doubling the size of the 2nd largest preferred in the World.

[TFTC @TFTC21]

Jamie Dimon: "Rates can easily go up more. At one point you're going to have a lot of people refi at higher rates. That can put stress in the system and easily could cause a recession type thing."

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

The most interesting story in Bitcoin right now is the rise of $SATA in the credit markets and the embrace of $ASST by the equity capital markets.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Congressman Nick Begich's new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill now has 21 cosponsors 👀