Jarbo AM

[Jarbo AM @JaredBou]

@vulturetrades Trade

[Jarbo AM @JaredBou]

@vulturetrades Ai

[Jarbo AM @JaredBou]

@punk1685 Done

[Huw van Steenis @huwsteenis]

Private credit the most popular topic on day 1 @MilkenInstitute

🧵

1) Fears of "lender-on-lender violence" increasing as stress in portfolios tick-up

2) Many looking to asset-backed lending for greener pastures as leverage lending is heavily picked over & banks are back!

[Ritholtz @RitholtzWealth]

Why I’m Not Worried About $1 Trillion in Credit Card Debt

"The economy, household net worth and home equity have all grown substantially faster than credit card debt since the pandemic started."

https://t.co/8u61FfY2Jl

by @awealthofcs

[Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas]

July 2023 Asset Class Performance
-Out of favor assets performed well on the month
--EM, Frontier, Commods, small, REIT on top
-Treasuries down the bottom
--basically a classic risk-on month

YTD it's still US large caps on top, vs commodities at the bottom despite the bounce

[Diego Saez Gil @dsaezgil]

In a way the Earth already is a super-computer.

Map of submarine internet cables:

[Danielle DiMartino Booth @DiMartinoBooth]

I invite you in today with my clients' blessings. We live in troubled times. History's lessons are scorned. Those with the courage to make impossible choices are pilloried for sport. The sin of ZIRP & QE are presumed to be other-worldly 'free lunch.'
https://t.co/siBSCOPoG1

[Kantro @MichaelKantro]

https://t.co/AsSLQVrBre

[Jarbo AM @JaredBou]

@MacroBoehmer There was no major change last night from the BoJ last night. However, the 10yr fell and the USDJPY dropped off substantially. Wondering why this change and the teams view on Japan / positioning?

[Mike Shell | Asymmetry® @MikeWShell]

A year ago, the weighted average cost of capital for S&P 500 firms equaled 4.1%, close to the lowest level in history. The past year the cost of capital for US firms surged by the largest amount in 40 yrs. The WACC jumped 2% to 6%, the highest level in a decade. - Goldman Sachs

[Paulo Macro @PauloMacro]

My friends, I am going to walk you down memory lane in 2001 because as I wrote earlier today and over many months:

Bears are a process, one that takes time, and will drive you crazy without context and some distance.

1/6

[Konstantin Boehmer @MacroBoehmer]

8.2% - A Red-Hot #CPI print, with the core print rising to a 40 year high at 6.6%

While energy continues to cool, food and services have risen to multi-year high contributions

However, certain indicators are not all that they appear to be – and may signal a path forward

[Konstantin Boehmer @MacroBoehmer]

Enjoyed this video here - two good thinkers and plenty of valuable questions + comments

https://t.co/7tMOBvyPil

[Konstantin Boehmer @MacroBoehmer]

The market is split between a 50 & 75 bp hike for the ECB tomorrow – yet how could they not opt for 75?

Do they really want to undershoot the market?

Look at JPY to see what can happen if interest rate differential blow out…

The pressure was large and has only increased

[Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno]

Debunking 5 pieces of Russian misinformation on Natural Gas – A thread

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

BREAKING: Gazprom claims it detected an oil leak during "maintenance" at Nord Stream 1, and therefore the gas pipeline is going to remain closed until repairs are made (no timeline provided for any re-start) | #EnergyCrisis

[Kantro @MichaelKantro]

Stocks are right where they should be - they don't lead leading indicators, they effectively trade with them. If PMIs continue to decline (we think they will), stocks will likely remain under pressure. #macro $SPY #hOpe

[Konstantin Boehmer @MacroBoehmer]

Crowded trades work until they do not…

Like a disease, a belief’s level of virality is based on:

Contagion: How compelling it is?

Interaction: How wide is adoption?

Recovery: How is it supported by reality?

…We are entering a phase where beliefs can turn very quickly 1/X

[Konstantin Boehmer @MacroBoehmer]

I had never really considered inflation as a meaningful #budget burden for developed issuers…

However, we have not seen high inflation since #Inflation-linked-bonds (ILB) were introduced

…For countries with high exposure to ILBs; debt servicing becomes increasingly costly 1/5