Jason Murphy

Football Odds Compiler & Trader @paddypower & @Betfair
Views and (especially) tips are my own.

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Great to be in the studio again for this week's Racing Postcast. Giroud worth a start if Tammy isnt fit, Real & Bayern value next week in UCL, Haaland can do EVERYTHING, "great" unbeaten runs, greater cups of tea, and Villarreal the NAP ⚽️☕️⚽️

[Racing Post @RacingPost]

⚽ FOOTBALL POSTCAST ⚽

Join @JackReeveTNC, @aWilsher94 & @paddypower’s @jasonjmurphy1 with their best bets for the weekend.

🎧Spotify: https://t.co/LyvwyAUKBL
🍎Apple: https://t.co/hm1saEafRV
▶ YouTube: https://t.co/LFUfYWbZzU

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Martinez price looks a little big for the Golden Glove... is the market accounting for FIFA's possible "please, we cannot have this again" factor after Martinez's last Golden Glove celebration?

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

@philninho @LolTheSchol Unrelated as well but listening to Lee Dixon was like crawling through the desert in flip-flops, whereas Andros Townsend has been like getting handed a pint glass of Lucozade with extra ice

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Vargentina

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

@philninho @LolTheSchol "The rule states that if a player is booked or sent off - but the foul was actually committed by the opposition team - the decision can be changed." - from what I can see.

The corner one a bit mad but they just dont want a goal scored from incorrectly awarded corner

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

@LolTheSchol Was similar one earlier in tournament for Almiron. Technically right but just doesn't feel right. Embolo shouldnt give the ref a decision to make when on a yellow. Big teams getting all the 'luck'. Such as Martinez must be 3 fouls on Embolo and no card yet...little things add up

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

@Zonal_Marking @OptaAnalyst Meaning those teams would get 4 points more often than most of these pre tournament models were accounting for. 3pt and -1GD at 84% was likely incorrect/over estimate

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

@Zonal_Marking @OptaAnalyst Likely poor pre tournament models not correctly accounting for game state, that teams would know what they would need. Good models, in simulations where Algeria v Austria and Paraguay v Australia games were all on 3 points should have adjusted likelihood of the draw.

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

How often does Kolo Muani think about that chance in the World Cup final? At least once a day?

I think of it every time see him play

[Julian Canny @juliancanny]

I genuinely prefer Ger Canning as a commentator.

#ArmIrl

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

@NeilMac555 @iwasvvdrunk @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @luca10534758 Hope all is well with you chief. Was only quick look, @iwasvvdrunk correct

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

@iwasvvdrunk @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @NeilMac555 @luca10534758 Noted @iwasvvdrunk 👍

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

@iwasvvdrunk @Tgb456123 @Lord420Degen @Messe1989 @NeilMac555 @luca10534758 Quick look, Atleti need win by 2 goals to guarantee qualification.

If PSG fail to win, Atleti qualify 6 pts.

If PSG win, 3 teams 6 points. Each team beaten one of the others. Therefore +ve GD would see PSG through, with Atleti level GD Botafogo but through on more goals scored

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Thoughts with Ireland handicap backers at this difficult time

[Emmet O'Keeffe @WoefulPunditry]

Really enjoyed making my debut on the Betfair NFL pod previewing the best weekend of the year for 🏈 lovers. Best bet of the weekend is in the player props with Josh Allen over 8.5 Rush attempts at 10/11 in Bills v Ravens. All likes & retweets much appreciated

https://t.co/HQlSUopvzp

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Simple answer is because this appointment gives you a better chance of es kommt nach Hause🤷‍♂️

[Sky Sports News @SkySportsNews]

"They need to answer, why not an Englishman" 👀

Danny Mills on the FA's appointment of Thomas Tuchel as new England manager 👔

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Good, quick little read this. Simple use of stats that give a good insight into where United are at since Ferguson

https://t.co/UuIfsRNkQO

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Bit of a contradiction here in BBC match report...

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

in 1913, a game of roulette in a Monte Carlo casino saw the ball land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers in the casino began placing huge bets on red, as they believed the frequency of the past black lands couldn't be repeated. Will it be 27 times 🇪🇸 Spanish teams tonight??

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

just to finish with this stat from @soccerbase 🇪🇸 Spain or Spanish teams have been in 26 finals in the last 23 years - World Cup, Euros, Champions League, Europa League... they have won all 26.

Reminded me of the 'gamblers fallacy' and the example often used...

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Overall, 🇪🇸 went off favs vs 🇩🇪🇫🇷 and performed reasonably as expected. Whereas 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, bar 🇳🇱 game, have underperformed. Small sample size, so expect 🇪🇸 to be good & 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 to be closer to level performance shown in SF but still, when it is all over, it is 43% chance it's coming home...

[Jason Murphy @jasonjmurphy1]

Building on the point by @Zonal_Marking using bookmakers expectations to further illustrate how "poor"🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 have been. Consistent underperformance offensively in every match and defensively against 🇸🇰🇨🇭. However, 6 game sample of NPXG contains a lot of noise/variation, therefore...

[Michael Cox @Zonal_Marking]

has Southgate truly "silenced the doubters"? Or have the doubters (who probably think some variation of "the team has been poor considering so many individuals are capable of brilliance") basically been right? I suppose they have been silenced, but not really proven wrong.