Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.
This was an eye opener from Jensen Huang
When asked whether he would rather relive his 20s or be 20 years old today, this is what he had to say:
"I thought our 20s were happier than these 20s. I think everyone deserves some time to be oblivious, and not wear all of the world's problems on their shoulders on Day 1
We are raising a generation that is very cynical and too informed
They are cynical, not because they are inherently cynical. They are cynical because they see so much stuff. It is too much stuff
You have to build up some internal reserve of optimism. You have to build up some reserve of goodness."
I am sure this will not be one of my most successful posts. Posts like this rarely are.
I don't care.
This will be one of the most important I ever posted.
Listen to Alistair Begg - How will you get to heaven?
Hannah Hutzley was shopping in her wheelchair when she heard a little boy whisper, “Hi… do you know how to do wheelies?” And it was the moment both their lives changed for the better. 😭❤️
In 1988, at 3:00 AM, a recording engineer in Honolulu named Milan Bertosa received a call from a client who said, "I have this guy here who really wants to record something."
That "guy" was Israel Kamakawiwoʻole (known as "IZ"), a 500-pound Hawaiian musician who arrived at the studio in a taxi shortly after. Bertosa quickly set up a single microphone, and in just one take, Israel performed a medley of "Over the Rainbow" and "What a Wonderful World" accompanied only by his ukulele.
The recording was so raw and beautiful that it eventually became a global phenomenon, appearing in countless movies and commercials.