J.

Qui Ducit Viam | Power concedes nothing without demand

[J. @jaylenbaca]

@purelivn Layout 1, but rotate the bed so feet towards the door (bad feng shui otherwise for both)

Also add a foldable table or elevating dress in that pocket by the door. Increases your storage, surfaces

[vittorio @IterIntellectus]

people don’t realize this, but 2026 appears to be the first year in human history where humanity as a whole is below replacement fertility.

this has never happened before. not during wars. not during pandemics.

for the first time in human history, we are not producing enough children to replace ourselves.

this is the only real existential crisis.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

American Exceptionalism. 🇺🇸

[J. @jaylenbaca]

@TMTLongShort 🫡

[Kawin Ethayarajh @ethayarajh]

I recently gave a talk introducing young economists to post-training.

The slides are now up! https://t.co/oPbo0vTqsD

Not only is post-training your own model more doable than ever, but economists and other social scientists can play a big part in the next era of post-training.

The post-training suite looks roughly like:
1) SFT
2) Offline Methods (DPO/KTO/SimPO/etc)
3) Online Methods (PPO/GRPO/CISPO/etc)
4) RL Environments
5) Distillation (<--- we are here)
6) World Adaptation (<--- the future)

As agents are deployed in the real world, the real world will adapt to them. This adaptation is largely overlooked by the current post-training paradigm because working with verifiable rewards from static environments is much simpler and scalable. As we saw with the OpenAI-Huggingface incident however, we shouldn't assume that the real world will remain fixed---quite the opposite, in fact. So:

1. How can we anticipate real-world adaptation during post-training?
2. What do equilibria look like in these scenarios, if there are any at all?
3. What tools can be created to scale up human oversight?

Many such questions abound, and if you're an economist, these are high-impact problems worth studying.

[J. @jaylenbaca]

@theo bro again?

[NWS Los Angeles @NWSLosAngeles]

Good afternoon! There is continued moderate risk of Heat illness across portions of Southwest California Sunday into Monday. Even Hotter and drier conditions are expected Tuesday through at least Friday, with an Extreme Heat Watch for many areas.

#CAwx #LAheat

[Chris Hadfield @Cmdr_Hadfield]

China is landing at the Moon's south pole, launching tomorrow.
The yellow star at the bottom is their intended site, 23 miles from the pole. The top image is where the US is targeting to land, fairly soon. Lots of overlap.
Power and water are key. The hilltops have near-permanent sunshine for power. The black craters are always in shadow, likely with frozen water in them.
An important moment in history as we start to settle the Moon. It's the 8th continent, bigger than Africa. How we choose to cooperate matters. @openlunar

[Melissa Chen @MsMelChen]

Did you guys read Ender's Game?

Because this is right out of Ender’s Game, except the kids in Battle School are Chinese state researchers, the “simulations” are real influence ops, and the Formics (aliens) are.... us.

In Orson Scott Card’s novel, Ender Wiggin spends years inside elaborate digital simulated arenas, commanding fleets, testing strategies, iterating tactics against an enemy he never truly meets - essentially playing video games and being tested against other players. Every variable is controlled, every response measured, every weakness probed until victory is inevitable. There's a twist at the end which I won't ruin for those who haven't read it.

This is what the Chinese are doing now to the West. They scraped 171 million open X posts, inferred age, race, ideology, party, gender resentment, election skepticism - modeling the whole American psyche essentially - and spun up a million-agent digital twin of the US electorate. They can dial up synthetic Pennsylvania voters, feed them a tax-and-redistribution message, watch the reaction in multi-round conversations, refine it, and measure swing-state impact with claimed 47-of-51 accuracy.

They model Trump’s “dependable right-wing base.” They map MAGA content and influencer networks. Their own documents call it “cognitive-domain confrontation and guidance.”

Parts of the system are already being used by the PLA and intelligence units.

Guys, are you paying attention yet? They are playing Sims with the American population!!!

LOL WE are the NPCs.

This is completely an asymmetrical war as we have no reciprocal capability whatsoever. China is a black box thanks to The Great Firewall and total data sovereignty. We cannot access a corpus of ordinary Chinese citizens for any American lab to scrape.

We cannot build a million-agent model of the Chinese public. We cannot test messages on synthetic Shanghainese factory workers or Chengdu nationalists. We cannot A/B test narratives about Taiwan, the economy, or Party legitimacy and watch the simulated reaction in real time. We do not even know what the average Chinese person thinks because they've been cut off from our information platforms.

We live in a glass house while they live in a fortress. Every American rant, every demographic signal, every cultural fracture is harvested, modeled, and weaponized.

Meanwhile, their population remains opaque, unmodeled, and unreachable. Beijing now possesses a live, continuously updated war-game of the American mind. We possess nothing comparable about theirs.

A whole new level of Unrestricted Warfare has been unlocked. We are really not ready for this

[Parody Jeff @Parodyjeffx]

THIS IS TERRIFYING

Palantir just released a new surveillance system that fuses satellites, radars and every camera into one real-time tracker of people and movement.

We are cooked.

[J. @jaylenbaca]

@Samaytwt One of these:

[J. @jaylenbaca]

@hearinladotcom If someone won’t sacrifice for a friend, why spend time together?

Equally, why wouldn’t the friend just fly into Burbank (et al.) and skip all this?

[J. @jaylenbaca]

@koby_pierce That's awesome, thanks for sharing!

[Compounding Quality @QCompounding]

Defense spending per person

[GZERO Media @gzeromedia]

Would you change what you're studying because of AI?

Students are thinking about it — and the answer looks different depending on what you study.

Technology students want to master AI but worry it could take their jobs. Vocational students chose hands-on trades they consider AI-proof. Healthcare and natural science students? The least fazed of the group.

[J. @jaylenbaca]

@nomadgeist Lol,which one of these is still alive again?

[McKinsey & Company @McKinsey]

Americans share more common ground on what a better life looks like than you might expect.

The challenge is turning those shared aspirations into progress as rising costs and other barriers make economic mobility harder to achieve. https://t.co/4D2JJDL4Ps

[J. @jaylenbaca]

@spencerpratt Y'all know this is a choice right?

This doesn't happen in most (all?) other countries

[Theo - t3.gg @theo]

Rough tier list of where I'd put every major model right now