I evaluated the last 4 years of John Lynch drafts
his performance:
2023: #31
2024: #28
2025: #31
2026: #32
after the draft, Lynch claimed he knows better than everyone else
the data shows he doesn’t
I went thru every single "reach" he made
it's gross
https://t.co/lIiJ1aOWx9
Wow, this post blew up. The replies offer a pretty revealing window into the inanity of how fans think.
Two arguments dominate:
Argument #1. “Scoreboard, bro.”
Yes, the 49ers have been successful under Kyle and John. That’s not in dispute. But we’re adults capable of holding two thoughts at once: this team has won and it has underperformed its ceiling because of poor drafting.
Run the counterfactuals. What if they take Creed Humphrey or Quinn Meinerz over Aaron Banks in 21? Nick Bonitto over Drake Jackson in 22? Ladd McConkey over Ricky Pearsall 24? How much better is this roster - right now - with just those swaps? My contention: materially better.
Drafts matter. And right now, the 49ers’ draft process is leaving wins on the table, and wasting an elite (and rapidly aging) core and one of the best coaches in the league (albeit I fully acknowledge Kyle shoulders A LOT of blame for the 49ers awful drafting).
Argument # 2. “Consensus boards don’t matter and reaches are meaningless.”
This is wrong on so many levels.
The draft is a market. Picks have value because players have probabilistic outcomes. A top-10 pick is worth more than pick 100 because the odds of landing a good player are materially higher.
Let's simplify it. Imagine a draft with 100 players:
Top 33: ~50% hit rate
Middle 33: ~25%
Bottom 34: ~10%
The consensus board is just the market’s aggregate view of those probabilities.
So when you reach 50–60 picks, you’re implicitly saying: we know something the market doesn’t. You believe a player with a ~10% hit rate actually has ~50%. Occasionally, sure markets misprice assets. But doing this consistently is the equivalent of believing you can beat the market over and over. That’s not strategy, that’s delusion.
Over time, the math compounds:
A team drafting according to the board will net ~2.55 quality players over 3 drafts
A team consistently reaching? Closer to ~1 over those same drafts.
That gap is franchise-defining.
Now bring it back to the @JohnLynch49ers and the 49ers.
By multiple analyses like @SharpFootball, this team reach more often and by great magnitude than anyone else. That *might* be defensible if they hit at a comparable rate on those players. But they don’t. The hit rate on these reaches is atrocious: Ty Davis-Price, Joe Williams, Cam Latu, Jalen Hurd, Aaron Banks… the pattern is clear, especially in rounds 2–4 at and especially at RB/WR.
And so of course, what does this team do yesterday? A ~60 pick reach on Stribling and a ~90 pick (!!!) reach on Black.
At some point, this stops being contrarian and starts being self-sabotage.
The 49ers operate like they’ve cracked the market. In reality, they’re the day trader who thinks they’ve found an edge while taking loss after loss.
cc: @grantcohn@Chase_Senior@sportslarryk
Something is rotten in Santa Clara.
The 49ers draft process isn’t just off, it’s systematically broken. The 2026 class is just the latest entry in a 5+ year pattern of pissing down their own leg.
Here's a summary of the 2026 class:
- A 60-pick reach in Round 2.
- A flawed “need” player over higher-upside talent.
- And, of course, the "Shanahan classic:" a RB taken 40-70 spots earlier than expected while premium positions sit untouched.
This isn’t misfortunate. It’s a pronounced, fundamental failure to understand value and evaluate talent. One reach is defensible. Doing it every year, while consistently flaunting the board, is malpractice.
Take Stribling: the Niners passed on higher-graded players at positions of need - Bisontis, T.J. Parker, Kayden McDonald, Cashius Howell, C.J. Allen, Colton Hood (all who went within the next 8-9 picks) - to draft a traits-based WR projected for the middle of Round 3, if not later. Best case, he develops into a good player but contributes nothing this year while immediate impact options at guard or edge go elsewhere.
Then they trade back from 58, passing on players like Anthony Hill and Keyron Crawford, only to land Romello Height, a 25-year-old with a capped ceiling. Even if he produces, the opportunity cost is glaring. You don’t pass on young, ascending talent for marginal contributors unless you’ve got a broken framework for evaluating talent.
And then the signature move: reaching ~60 picks for Kaelon Black. A fine player, sure, but with no distinguishing traits (call him Jordan James redux...but taken 60 picks earlier). A Day 3 back taken on Day 2 while OL (Trey Zuhn, Gennings Dunker), WR (Chris Bell), EDGE (Barham), and S (Jalon Kilgore) talent remained on the board. It’s not just suboptimal, it’s flat-out incoherent.
At some point, this stops being debatable. Under @JohnLynch49ers, this regime has gone 6 drafts without producing a single Pro Bowl player. The results aren’t unlucky; they’re consistent. And consistently mediocre at best (see 2024/2025) and disastrous (2021, 2022 and 2023) at worst.
@JedYork, tolerating this is a choice. And that choice is settling for permanent underachievement. Enough is enough.
cc: @grantcohn@sportslarryk@Chase_Senior@SharpFootball@dieter@hutchdiesel
The state of Bay Area professional sports.
Warriors fans are excited about a loss in April because they got to watch Steph Curry.
Giants fans don’t even care anymore.
49ers fans fully expect their team to be among the most injured in football again next season.
Greg Gutfeld spoke for millions of us 🔥🔥🔥
“We had dozens of deaths where you guys didn’t say sh*t… here’s 3 pages of women who have been m*rdered by illegal aliens.”
“You can’t call me a monster for saying all these people get deported. I don’t care!”
Amber Rose slams Ariana Grande for urging people to stay home to rally against ICE 🔥👇🏼
“Anyone that tells people to not go to work, not go to school, not f*cking buy things for their family, and they’re worth $250-$300 million dollars, they should shut the f*ck up!”