Last hand of late reg in PLO. I blind pot UTG, Martin blind pots button, bb all in, I’m all in Martin all in. Martin has 5 cards. Floor says his hand is dead, 15 min later there is still arguing. Martin has us both covered. What will the final ruling be?
I have read Search and Seizure Warrant against The Lodge in full, and it does appear to be a witch hunt.
Essentially, they're deeming poker in TX illegal and therefore classifying what we'd consider normal banking transactions as money laundering because it's proceeds from what they say is illegal gambling.
All the undercover operations outlined in the affidavit describe a normally functioning, well-run poker room.
To me, nothing in it suggests what we in the poker world would consider scandalous/nefarious, but rather authorities simply taking a stance on the grey area/loophole that they consider illegal.
If the TABC ultimately prevails that poker at The Lodge constitutes illegal gambling, it’ll shut down every room in TX.
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GOV: We have a housing crisis. Prices are too high.
ME: I agree. Supply is too low.
GOV: So we have a plan. We’re going to subsidize demand.
ME: …What does that mean?
GOV: We’re going to give people money to buy houses.
ME: But there aren't enough houses.
GOV: Right. So we’ll help them bid harder.
ME: If you have 10 people fighting for 1 house, and you give them all cash... the price just goes up.
GOV: Then we’ll give them more cash.
ME: That’s not a solution. That’s inflation.
GOV: It’s "First Time Homebuyer Assistance."
ME: Okay, let’s back up. Why are houses so expensive in the first place?
GOV: Because we made them the perfect investment vehicle.
ME: How?
GOV: First, the 30-year fixed mortgage.
ME: That’s standard, right?
GOV: Only in America. In other countries, rates float. Here, you can lock in a low rate for three decades.
ME: Why would a bank take that risk? If inflation goes up, they lose money.
GOV: Banks don’t take the risk. They sell the loan to us.
ME: To the government?
GOV: To Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We guarantee the liquidity.
ME: So the taxpayer subsidizes the risk so I can have cheap leverage?
GOV: Correct.
ME: And then I get to deduct the interest?
GOV: Only on the first $750,000 of debt.
ME: That seems... high.
GOV: It used to be a million. We trimmed it.
ME: But wait. If I rent, can I deduct my rent?
GOV: No.
ME: If I buy a small business, can I deduct the interest on the loan?
GOV: It’s complicated.
ME: But if I buy a giant house, I definitely can?
GOV: Absolutely. We wrote it into the tax code.
ME: So you’re paying me to borrow money to buy a bigger house than I need.
GOV: We’re "incentivizing ownership."
ME: What happens when I sell?
GOV: The Capital Gains Exclusion!
ME: How does that work?
GOV: If you sell a stock for a $500,000 profit, you pay taxes.
ME: Roughly 20%.
GOV: If you sell your house for a $500,000 profit?
ME: What do I pay?
GOV: Zero.
ME: Zero tax?
GOV: As long as you lived there for two years.
ME: So housing is the only asset class where I get subsidized 30-year leverage and tax-free profits?
GOV: Pretty sweet deal, right?
ME: So you turned shelter into a speculative financial asset.
GOV: We call it "Generational Wealth."
ME: Okay, so demand is juiced to the moon. Can we at least build more supply to bring prices down?
GOV: Oh, absolutely not.
ME: Why?
GOV: Zoning.
ME: I own land. Can I build a duplex?
GOV: Illegal. Single-family only.
ME: Can I build a granny flat?
GOV: Only if you provide two parking spots and pass a shadow study.
ME: So you made it illegal to build cheaper housing?
GOV: We protect "Neighborhood Character."
ME: But you spend billions on roads and utilities for the suburbs.
GOV: Infrastructure investment.
ME: So you subsidize the expensive sprawl, but ban the cheap density?
GOV: Now you’re getting it.
ME: This system seems designed to keep prices high.
GOV: It is.
ME: But you started this conversation by saying we have an "Affordability Crisis."
GOV: We do. Prices are too high!
ME: So we should lower them?
GOV: No! We can’t lower prices.
ME: Why not?
GOV: Because then the voters lose their "Generational Wealth."
ME: So we need high prices for the voters... and low prices for the buyers?
GOV: Exactly.
ME: That’s a paradox.
GOV: It’s politics.
ME: So what is your actual plan?
GOV: We’re going to give first-time buyers $25,000.
ME: Okay. I’m a seller. I list my house for $400,000.
GOV: Uh huh.
ME: I know every buyer just got a free $25,000 from the government.
GOV: Right.
ME: What do I do?
GOV: You... keep the price the same?
ME: I raise the price to $425,000.
GOV: You wouldn't.
ME: I absolutely would. The buyer can afford it now.
GOV: But that just transfers the subsidy from the poor buyer to the rich seller!
ME: Econ 101.
GOV: We don’t think that will happen.
ME: Just like you didn’t think $7,500 EV credits would make Ford raise the price of the F-150 Lightning by exactly $7,500?
GOV: That was a coincidence.
ME: You are trapping us in a box.
GOV: It’s not a box.
ME: What is it?
GOV: It’s a Single Family Home with a 2.5% mortgage rate that you can never afford to sell.
ME: ...
GOV: Welcome to the American Dream.
After the tragedy in Minnesota yesterday, I ask a very simple question: What are we OK with?
I truly believe this is worth your time.
Also, don’t argue in the comments. Don’t even read them.
Okay MAGA folks, here we go:
1. If you want to defend the first shot he fired, how do you defend the second and third shots into the driver side window?
2. If you want to defend all three shots, how do you defend them blocking medics from getting to her as she bled out?
3. If you want to defend all 3 shots and blocking medical care, how do you defend him getting in the car and driving away from the scene of a crime, after calling her a ‘fucking bitch’?
My replies are open. You have to answer all three numbered questions.
Stephen Colbert on the ICE murder of Renee Good: “The message from this administration is clear. Only they determine the truth. And when their forces come to your city, obey or die. And if you die, you clearly didn’t obey. This should be an alarm bell for the entire country.”