Jon

software and finance guy. all opinions my own.

[Jon @jcfrei]

I don't believe the Chinese leadership sees itself as competing with US megacorporations for higher valuations. For its ideological project to succeed, AI needs to empower individual workers and help ensure social stability. Open-weight models are central to that vision.

[Jon @jcfrei]

If you take a step back and look at the AI race between the US and China from their respective ideological points of view, both are acting very rationally. The US is leading in the commercialization of AI, with its companies - OpenAI, Anthropic, etc having the highest valuations.

[Jon @jcfrei]

China, however, is leading on the open-weight front. And China is run by the Communist Party. Creating highly capable models that anybody - especially any worker - can use fits its ideology perfectly. The two countries are not optimizing for the same outcome.

[Jon @jcfrei]

@profplum99 @PelopsWar cross post to threads. much more interaction there and less bot spam

[Jon @jcfrei]

Looks like the first step toward realizing James Incandenza's "the Entertainment" videotape from Infinite Jest.

[Yingtian Tang @yingtian_david]

🚨 NEW PREPRINT

Videos strongly shape activity across the visual cortex. But can we design videos that maximally drive specific brain regions?

We present NEvo 🧬🧠 — a neural-guided evolutionary framework that synthesizes videos to maximally activate target visual ROIs.

(1/10)

[Jon @jcfrei]

Usually, EU states can't even agree on a single missile-defence system, with the French, Germans, etc. all wanting to boost their own manufacturers. Now a Ukrainian-led effort has broken the impasse? Either some lobbyists were asleep, or we'll see major squabbling down the road.

[WarTranslated @wartranslated]

The Élysée Palace has announced that Ukraine and nine other European countries have formed an Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition to jointly develop ballistic missile defence systems. The participants will pool their defence, scientific and industrial capabilities and have highlighted Ukraine’s unique experience in countering Russian aggression.
https://t.co/BN1apFO7P4

[Jon @jcfrei]

Crypto trading volume is down - so what better strategy than to diversify into the next hot thing? Gemini is introducing prediction markets - competing with polymarket and kalshi. Who else is gonna follow this playbook? Maybe Binance?

[Gemini @Gemini]

Whatever it is

You can trade it on Gemini.

[Jon @jcfrei]

The 90s are making a comeback in parts of Russia: Together with fuel shortages and "spekulyanty" reselling the little gasoline that's available.

[Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 @bayraktar_1love]

A new trend is emerging amid Russia's fuel crisis. Fuel resellers are somehow buying fuel in bulk despite sales restrictions and then reselling it privately at huge markups.

In this case, from Rostov, one of them drained an entire gas station dry with his homemade fuel truck.

They then advertise the fuel on social media and resell it at massive markups, further worsening an already severe fuel shortage. They even advertise it as an advantage, telling customers they won't have to spend hours waiting at gas stations.

For some people, that may even sound tempting, considering that waiting 4, 8, or in some cases even 12 hours for fuel has become a reality.

[Jon @jcfrei]

Since we're on twitter - here's the announcement: https://t.co/eIhxQ981fT

[Rohmeo @rohmeo_de]

Long live the new DYNAMIC Bitcoin Rainbow Chart🌈!

As you may know the old Rainbow Chart is broken...but it was based on data from 2014!

So here is what I did

[Jon @jcfrei]

And the 2023 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart was just removed and replaced by a “Dynamic Rainbow Chart”. It will now be retroactively fitted to price history. Not really a predictive model anymore, is it? Anyway, I guess that concludes yesterday’s call. https://t.co/9ENNHEGXr3

[Jon @jcfrei]

Kudos to the author for actually owning up to it though. The next models to die are now the revised "2023 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart" and the silly halving price spiral: It says that bitcoin never goes lower than its price ~4 years ago (same time during the previous halving cycle).

[Jon @jcfrei]

see also: https://t.co/7Sh9wjoGG1

[Jon @jcfrei]

More evidence that the main roadblock for AI and robotics will not be the technology but legislation: https://t.co/54RvULo3mp Taxi drivers are already preventing the roll out of self-driving cars and many other sectors of the economy will follow this playbook.

[Jon @jcfrei]

The Dixie is above 100 and the crypto market is again looking very shaky today. All major coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL are below or close to psychologically important price levels.

[Jon @jcfrei]

The Dixie is back above 100 and the crypto market is looking very shaky tonight. All major coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL are below or close to psychologically important price levels.

[Jon @jcfrei]

people in Shanghai were getting fake divorced just to buy more houses. In 2007 in the US price increases were so fast that straw buyers took out mortgages on multiple properties just to flip them within months. And in January of 2000, Bank of America paid $3M just for loans.​com.

[Jon @jcfrei]

These kinds of stories are always popping up when we are approaching the end of a cycle: https://t.co/MK6Hw288ig In Zhubei in Taiwan people are put on years-long waiting lists for buying apartments near the TSMC headquarters. Back in 2016 during the Chinese real estate boom

[Jon @jcfrei]

Kudos to the author for actually owning up to it though. The next models to die are now the revised "2023 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart" and the silly halving price spiral: It says that bitcoin never goes lower than its price ~4 years ago (same time during the previous halving cycle).

[Jon @jcfrei]

Bitcoin is now deader than dead according to the original rainbow chart

[Jon @jcfrei]

For a single country there is no winnable move. Only a global minimum tax framework could provide enough fiscal room. The other alternatives are cutting public spending (not gonna happen) or rabid populism that alternatively blames it all on evil corporations or lazy foreigners.

[Jon @jcfrei]

Short lived governments will likely become normal in democracies. Doesn't matter whether they are from the left or the right. Because for most countries there's a fundamental disconnect between the actual capabilities of the government and the expectations of the voters.

[Larry the Cat @Number10cat]

Another one bites the dust.

[Jon @jcfrei]

taxation scheme that doesn't add up with the current population pyramid and you've got the perfect fiscal storm. Any reduction in pensions or other public benefits will immediately lead to election losses and any increase in taxation will lead to an eroding tax base.