We are seeing a total failure of MMT around the globe.
QE and deficit spending (after 2008 and during COVID) was basically an attempt at Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). In a nutshell, MMT says that we can print and deficit spend at will without any fiscal or economic complications.
So, central banks held interest rates at zero, forcing markets to accept absurdly low rates. At the same time, these central banks printed massive amounts of money and absorbed a lot of this new debt themselves.
MMTers said we could do this with no inflation. Clearly they were wrong. Friedman taught us exactly what would happen, and it did. Inflation took off. The result, central banks were forced to raise rates and stop expanding their balance sheets.
So far, governments have resisted fiscal sanity and are still running massive deficits even though central banks stopped funding them.
The result? In the past 3 months, 10-year bond yields are up 50 bps in the UK, 90 bps in France, 72 bps in the US, and more than 40 bps in Germany.
Governments were already too big in 2008, but this crazy experiment over the past 18 years has pushed things toward a breaking point.
France proposes to freeze government pay and pensions, and raise some taxes and we should expect more movement toward austerity in other countries soon.
MMT is basically Keynesianism on steroids. It didn’t work. The fix is a revival of Austrian, supply-side economics. Smaller governments, lower tax rates, tighter money, and less regulation. Some will say this is a pipe dream. But it is the only way out.
Isn’t it interesting that the 1960s still haunts us. The Great Society programs were never, ever supposed to become as large as they are. But, the “safety net” has become a “hammock” for far too many people. The shutdown is exposing the costs of these programs. Cut them.
Here are S&P 500 company earnings calls for the week of July 17 - 21. Stay a step ahead with FactSet! #earnings#sp500#earningscalls
Dates and times: https://t.co/lpgYpwti5w
In July 1971, we lived in Florida and my parents took my brothers and me to watch Apollo 15 launch from Cape Canaveral. It was a clear day and we stood on Cocoa Beach…about 10 miles away. We could feel the engines. I will never forget it. One memory is that my mom was crying…I was confused because I had never seen anyone cry out of sheer awe, patriotism, joy before. Anyway, I remembered that day today when I watched the broadcast online of the SpaceX Starship lift off. I’m old enough to cry at this stuff now, and I did. What makes me sad is that it was President Kennedy that put the nation on that path back then. Today, the only dreams our government seems to have are about how to redistribute more money to those they get votes from. Our government has zero intention of inspiring a nation. Thank God Elon Musk is doing this. Maybe the best thing about today is the fact that both my sons watched the launch with groups of people at their schools. Our youth are getting inspired…they will right this nation…if government doesn’t stop them. Our government is a huge impediment to future growth…my prayer is that we find a government that can inspire, lead and truly facilitate these dreams. The biggest problem is that this means a SMALLER government, and that means unselfish politicians. Are there any left?
“The last year when the lights stayed on every day in South Africa was 2017. But the continent’s most industrialized economy is now facing the worst blackouts ever, leaving most of its citizens without electricity for six-to-eight hours every day.“ https://t.co/mk5E0drTUE
My thoughts and prayers are with @BuffaloBills safety Damar Hamlin. Like millions of Americans, I was watching Monday night football when Damar collapsed and an ambulance came on the field. Join me in praying for this young man. https://t.co/47bwpY8Xzk
Yesterday felt like a negative session since we spent much of the day giving back overnight gains, but 85% of NYSE stocks still advanced after Monday's 90% upside day. If we can get above yesterday's high now in $SPX, the 50-DMA could be the next target.
In honor of Father's Day this weekend, we reflect on the family relationships that are deeply embedded in the culture and legacy of Stephens. We celebrate fathers everywhere and thank them for their support, love, and guidance. https://t.co/A9NX97rL4P
The University of Alabama in Huntsville is committing $17 million to preserve the only NCAA Division I hockey team in the southeastern U.S. The program was spared by last-minute fundraising efforts led by prominent alumni including Wild goalie Cam Talbot. https://t.co/eHDAo7kKSz