People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable.
A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations.
The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around.
Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets.
But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.
JORDAN BARTH JUST WALKED THIS THING OFFFFF!! 🚨🤩
THE @CANARIES TAKE A 2-1 SERIES LEAD! 👏
FM 7 - SF 8, FINAL/10
📺 Watch #FMvSF on https://t.co/7YlTwkUqnW
A small DII baseball program in South Dakota is dominating on the national stage.
They won a national championship.
They broke records.
They’ve built one of the most consistent dynasties in college baseball.
This is the story of Augustana Vikings Baseball.
🧵
Every year on Tax Day, Donald Rumsfeld sent a letter to the IRS explaining that he didn’t know whether he did his taxes properly. A “known unknown,” so to speak.
We are all Don!
"I just go out there, play, do everything I can to be the best player I can be and represent the underappreciated, undervalued Division II baseball players."
#SFGiants prospect Carter Howell's unlikely journey has led to a Fall League breakout: https://t.co/lDv6Mys4U5
for the past 10 years, I've kept a scratchpad of notes called "money wisdom"
anytime I read, heard, or learned something wise about wealth - I wrote it down... here they are:
The @augiebaseball run the past 6 seasons is unreal:
2018 - National Champions
2019 - Super Regional (Top 16)
2020 - COVID season
2021 - Central Regional
2022 - Super Regional
2023 - National Championships (Top 8)
Kudos to Tim Huber & his staff + players for an amazing run ⚾️⚔️
Good morning 🌞.
First and foremost, glad we’re alive for another 24. Lets not waste it.
Chop 🪵, and carry💧.
Life goes on during and after success.
You may reach your goals and get the status or success you desire by chopping wood and carrying water. This is great! Well done you. But as we know everything in life is impermanent.
If/when you achieve success, it’s not like you can say, “Whew! Thank goodness I’ve finally done it. That was a long journey, but I’m glad I’ve made it to the end.”
For a long time I tied my identity to goals and realized that’s one of the biggest reasons I was so unhappy. EVERY-TIME I hit a goal I expected some big “aha” moment but it never came.
I thought hitting these goals would make sense of my life but frankly they left me feeling empty.
The processes that got you to your goal in the first place need to be continued. You may need to tweak or reassess these processes from time-to-time to freshen them up. But the idea is to make the process the main focus. If you have the attitude that you have ‘arrived’, and ‘everything is now rosy’ you are in for a hard lesson. By continuing to chop wood and carry water you will keep your ego in check. You will stay grounded and humble. You must continue and stick to the powerful processes that got you there. This will keep your rivals at bay. This will allow you more growth and success.
And MOST importantly, bigger than any goal you achieve, it’s about the person you become along the way.
🪓 🪵 💧.
I’m building something massive and I want to give others the opportunity I have if you want it.
Zoom Call explaining it today, limited spots so DM me if you want in🔥
Let’s build massive residual income together🤝
Chop 🪵, carry 💧.
What does it mean? I’ve been asked this several times.
It comes from a Zen Buddhist Monk:
“The novice says to the master, ‘What does one do before enlightenment?’
‘Chop wood. Carry water,’ replies the master.
The novice asks, ‘What, then, does one do after enlightenment?’
‘Chop wood. Carry water.”
You can replace the word enlightenment in this quote for any word you want. Maybe you want success, or winning, or achievement. Whatever you feel is appropriate to your life and setting. It is fine to have lofty and ambitious goals. They should excite and motivate you to some extent of course. But as you will come to find in life focussing purely on your goals, on your outcomes, is not the way. The willpower needed to sustain this excitement will burn out.
If/when you achieve success, it’s not like you can say, “Whew! Thank goodness I’ve finally done it. That was a long journey, but I’m glad I’ve made it to the end.” If this were your thinking and attitude, do you then see the goal as the end point of everything? What do you do once you have arrived? Simply stop existing and see what happens next? Of course not. You need to continue to chop wood and carry water. Nothing just stops. Life needs to continue to be lived in all its wonderful forms.
And MOST importantly, bigger than any goal you achieve, it’s about the person you become along the way.
So, chop 🪵, carry 💧.
It’s what really matters.