![hataf_capital's tweet photo. ASML Just Obliterated The "Peak AI" Narrative
$ASML
By Hataf Capital
If you have been listening to the bears lately, you have probably heard the narrative that we are approaching "peak AI" or that the infrastructure spend is getting ahead of itself.
Well, ASML Holding NV $ASML just took that narrative and completely dismantled it.
The Dutch semiconductor equipment giant reported its Q4 order bookings on Wednesday, and the numbers were not just good they were absolutely staggering. The market was expecting bookings of €6.85 billion. Instead, ASML delivered a record €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion).
Let that sink in for a moment. They didn't just beat estimates; they nearly doubled them.
I have been writing about the AI infrastructure buildout for months, covering everything from Nvidia’s dominance to Dell’s server pivot and the power constraints benefiting Vistra and Constellation Energy. But ASML’s report is arguably the most critical data point we have seen yet because ASML sits at the very beginning of the supply chain.
You can’t build an Nvidia H100 or the upcoming Blackwell chips without ASML’s photolithography machines. They are the toll booth for the entire semiconductor industry. When ASML posts a record quarter of this magnitude, it sends a clear signal: the largest technology infrastructure buildout in human history is accelerating, not slowing down.
The "Veldhoven" Signal
What makes this report so compelling to me isn't just the headline number; it is the composition of those orders. More than half of the bookings €7.4 billion were for their Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
These are the most sophisticated, complex, and expensive machines in the world, required to manufacture the most advanced chips at 3nm and 2nm nodes. This tells us that the demand isn't for legacy nodes or commodity chips; it is squarely focused on the bleeding edge of compute power required for training and running massive AI models.
ASML’s Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet explicitly stated that customers have a "notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation." This directly contradicts the fears of an "AI air pocket" or a pause in spending.
In fact, this aligns perfectly with what we are seeing from the hyperscalers. Meta Platforms and Microsoft are pouring hundreds of billions into data centers. TSMC just announced they anticipate capital spending of more than $52 billion in 2026. You don't spend $52 billion on CapEx unless you have a crystal clear line of sight into end-market demand.
The Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Play
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, recently called this the "largest infrastructure build out in human history" and estimated a need for trillions of dollars of additional investment.
I believe the market is still having trouble wrapping its head around the sheer scale of this. We are moving from general-purpose computing to accelerated computing, and that requires replacing roughly $1 trillion worth of traditional data centers with AI factories.
ASML’s machinery is the integral component in this transition. The fact that their order book exploded to this degree confirms that chipmakers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are racing to secure capacity for 2026 and beyond. They are voting with their wallets, and that vote is a resounding vote of confidence in the longevity of the AI cycle.
The China Floor
There is another aspect of this report that I think the market is underappreciating, and that is the resilience of the Chinese market.
Despite US-led restrictions preventing ASML from selling its most advanced EUV and even some deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools to China, the region still accounted for 36% of net system sales in the fourth quarter.
While Chinese chipmakers are restricted to buying older equipment that is eight generations behind the most sophisticated models, the demand remains robust. They are buying up older equipment to manufacture mature chips, which creates a solid revenue floor for ASML while the AI boom provides the exponential ceiling.
The Valuation Reality
The AI boom has pushed ASML’s market value over $500 billion this month, and looking at the guidance, I believe this premium is justified. Revenue is seen between €34 billion and €39 billion this year, which is higher than previous guidance.
However, there is one piece of "fine print" in the report that investors need to watch. ASML stated they won’t report bookings in future quarterly reports, arguing the metric doesn't accurately capture business momentum due to lumpiness.
Usually, when a company stops reporting a key metric, it raises a red flag. But given the massive lead times and the astronomical price tag of these machines, quarterly bookings can indeed be incredibly volatile. The sheer size of the backlog they just built gives them tremendous visibility, regardless of quarter-to-quarter fluctuations.
[Guys! Please Make Sure To Like And Repost If You Like Our Content]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_u7UJEbYAACJoM.jpg)
![hataf_capital's tweet photo. ASML Just Obliterated The "Peak AI" Narrative
$ASML
By Hataf Capital
If you have been listening to the bears lately, you have probably heard the narrative that we are approaching "peak AI" or that the infrastructure spend is getting ahead of itself.
Well, ASML Holding NV $ASML just took that narrative and completely dismantled it.
The Dutch semiconductor equipment giant reported its Q4 order bookings on Wednesday, and the numbers were not just good they were absolutely staggering. The market was expecting bookings of €6.85 billion. Instead, ASML delivered a record €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion).
Let that sink in for a moment. They didn't just beat estimates; they nearly doubled them.
I have been writing about the AI infrastructure buildout for months, covering everything from Nvidia’s dominance to Dell’s server pivot and the power constraints benefiting Vistra and Constellation Energy. But ASML’s report is arguably the most critical data point we have seen yet because ASML sits at the very beginning of the supply chain.
You can’t build an Nvidia H100 or the upcoming Blackwell chips without ASML’s photolithography machines. They are the toll booth for the entire semiconductor industry. When ASML posts a record quarter of this magnitude, it sends a clear signal: the largest technology infrastructure buildout in human history is accelerating, not slowing down.
The "Veldhoven" Signal
What makes this report so compelling to me isn't just the headline number; it is the composition of those orders. More than half of the bookings €7.4 billion were for their Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
These are the most sophisticated, complex, and expensive machines in the world, required to manufacture the most advanced chips at 3nm and 2nm nodes. This tells us that the demand isn't for legacy nodes or commodity chips; it is squarely focused on the bleeding edge of compute power required for training and running massive AI models.
ASML’s Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet explicitly stated that customers have a "notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation." This directly contradicts the fears of an "AI air pocket" or a pause in spending.
In fact, this aligns perfectly with what we are seeing from the hyperscalers. Meta Platforms and Microsoft are pouring hundreds of billions into data centers. TSMC just announced they anticipate capital spending of more than $52 billion in 2026. You don't spend $52 billion on CapEx unless you have a crystal clear line of sight into end-market demand.
The Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Play
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, recently called this the "largest infrastructure build out in human history" and estimated a need for trillions of dollars of additional investment.
I believe the market is still having trouble wrapping its head around the sheer scale of this. We are moving from general-purpose computing to accelerated computing, and that requires replacing roughly $1 trillion worth of traditional data centers with AI factories.
ASML’s machinery is the integral component in this transition. The fact that their order book exploded to this degree confirms that chipmakers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are racing to secure capacity for 2026 and beyond. They are voting with their wallets, and that vote is a resounding vote of confidence in the longevity of the AI cycle.
The China Floor
There is another aspect of this report that I think the market is underappreciating, and that is the resilience of the Chinese market.
Despite US-led restrictions preventing ASML from selling its most advanced EUV and even some deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools to China, the region still accounted for 36% of net system sales in the fourth quarter.
While Chinese chipmakers are restricted to buying older equipment that is eight generations behind the most sophisticated models, the demand remains robust. They are buying up older equipment to manufacture mature chips, which creates a solid revenue floor for ASML while the AI boom provides the exponential ceiling.
The Valuation Reality
The AI boom has pushed ASML’s market value over $500 billion this month, and looking at the guidance, I believe this premium is justified. Revenue is seen between €34 billion and €39 billion this year, which is higher than previous guidance.
However, there is one piece of "fine print" in the report that investors need to watch. ASML stated they won’t report bookings in future quarterly reports, arguing the metric doesn't accurately capture business momentum due to lumpiness.
Usually, when a company stops reporting a key metric, it raises a red flag. But given the massive lead times and the astronomical price tag of these machines, quarterly bookings can indeed be incredibly volatile. The sheer size of the backlog they just built gives them tremendous visibility, regardless of quarter-to-quarter fluctuations.
[Guys! Please Make Sure To Like And Repost If You Like Our Content]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_u7CGFWYAAcVg1.jpg)
![hataf_capital's tweet photo. ASML Just Obliterated The "Peak AI" Narrative
$ASML
By Hataf Capital
If you have been listening to the bears lately, you have probably heard the narrative that we are approaching "peak AI" or that the infrastructure spend is getting ahead of itself.
Well, ASML Holding NV $ASML just took that narrative and completely dismantled it.
The Dutch semiconductor equipment giant reported its Q4 order bookings on Wednesday, and the numbers were not just good they were absolutely staggering. The market was expecting bookings of €6.85 billion. Instead, ASML delivered a record €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion).
Let that sink in for a moment. They didn't just beat estimates; they nearly doubled them.
I have been writing about the AI infrastructure buildout for months, covering everything from Nvidia’s dominance to Dell’s server pivot and the power constraints benefiting Vistra and Constellation Energy. But ASML’s report is arguably the most critical data point we have seen yet because ASML sits at the very beginning of the supply chain.
You can’t build an Nvidia H100 or the upcoming Blackwell chips without ASML’s photolithography machines. They are the toll booth for the entire semiconductor industry. When ASML posts a record quarter of this magnitude, it sends a clear signal: the largest technology infrastructure buildout in human history is accelerating, not slowing down.
The "Veldhoven" Signal
What makes this report so compelling to me isn't just the headline number; it is the composition of those orders. More than half of the bookings €7.4 billion were for their Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
These are the most sophisticated, complex, and expensive machines in the world, required to manufacture the most advanced chips at 3nm and 2nm nodes. This tells us that the demand isn't for legacy nodes or commodity chips; it is squarely focused on the bleeding edge of compute power required for training and running massive AI models.
ASML’s Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet explicitly stated that customers have a "notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation." This directly contradicts the fears of an "AI air pocket" or a pause in spending.
In fact, this aligns perfectly with what we are seeing from the hyperscalers. Meta Platforms and Microsoft are pouring hundreds of billions into data centers. TSMC just announced they anticipate capital spending of more than $52 billion in 2026. You don't spend $52 billion on CapEx unless you have a crystal clear line of sight into end-market demand.
The Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Play
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, recently called this the "largest infrastructure build out in human history" and estimated a need for trillions of dollars of additional investment.
I believe the market is still having trouble wrapping its head around the sheer scale of this. We are moving from general-purpose computing to accelerated computing, and that requires replacing roughly $1 trillion worth of traditional data centers with AI factories.
ASML’s machinery is the integral component in this transition. The fact that their order book exploded to this degree confirms that chipmakers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are racing to secure capacity for 2026 and beyond. They are voting with their wallets, and that vote is a resounding vote of confidence in the longevity of the AI cycle.
The China Floor
There is another aspect of this report that I think the market is underappreciating, and that is the resilience of the Chinese market.
Despite US-led restrictions preventing ASML from selling its most advanced EUV and even some deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools to China, the region still accounted for 36% of net system sales in the fourth quarter.
While Chinese chipmakers are restricted to buying older equipment that is eight generations behind the most sophisticated models, the demand remains robust. They are buying up older equipment to manufacture mature chips, which creates a solid revenue floor for ASML while the AI boom provides the exponential ceiling.
The Valuation Reality
The AI boom has pushed ASML’s market value over $500 billion this month, and looking at the guidance, I believe this premium is justified. Revenue is seen between €34 billion and €39 billion this year, which is higher than previous guidance.
However, there is one piece of "fine print" in the report that investors need to watch. ASML stated they won’t report bookings in future quarterly reports, arguing the metric doesn't accurately capture business momentum due to lumpiness.
Usually, when a company stops reporting a key metric, it raises a red flag. But given the massive lead times and the astronomical price tag of these machines, quarterly bookings can indeed be incredibly volatile. The sheer size of the backlog they just built gives them tremendous visibility, regardless of quarter-to-quarter fluctuations.
[Guys! Please Make Sure To Like And Repost If You Like Our Content]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_u65eRaAAAIPCL.jpg)
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@HolySmokas Refresh please
@mr_ameji @davidsenra @pmarca True, but what's even worse is being stuck in analysis paralysis and rumination and not moving forward at all.
@theburtmurphy Maybe. But in my gym they literally took them out off the vending machine, bc nobody bought it. Monster is the one and only king in my gym.
@InvestWithJorge I see a lot of chartists saying PT for LMND is $28-$30... I have no clue about TA, but that's still a lot of pain to go. Massive buying after that exhaustion will then be needed to get back above $65... that would be a huge move % wise.
@MultibaggerRsch @mind1nvestor Feeling a bit unsecure about my $LMND investment atm. Maybe I should allocate a portion of it into $ROOT. Feel like I dismissed that one too early after reading some good posts today. Being a good retail investor is not easy and demands a lot of DD...
@jrouldz @DivGuru Do you own $ROOT also?
@elwalvador The fear is that the "bill per seat" licensing model will be disrupted. If Claude AI agents can do the work of 10 or more "seats", these SaaS companies make way less money.
@TheRealBirnbaum Will be tough comps next year.
ASML Just Obliterated The "Peak AI" Narrative
$ASML
By Hataf Capital
If you have been listening to the bears lately, you have probably heard the narrative that we are approaching "peak AI" or that the infrastructure spend is getting ahead of itself.
Well, ASML Holding NV $ASML just took that narrative and completely dismantled it.
The Dutch semiconductor equipment giant reported its Q4 order bookings on Wednesday, and the numbers were not just good they were absolutely staggering. The market was expecting bookings of €6.85 billion. Instead, ASML delivered a record €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion).
Let that sink in for a moment. They didn't just beat estimates; they nearly doubled them.
I have been writing about the AI infrastructure buildout for months, covering everything from Nvidia’s dominance to Dell’s server pivot and the power constraints benefiting Vistra and Constellation Energy. But ASML’s report is arguably the most critical data point we have seen yet because ASML sits at the very beginning of the supply chain.
You can’t build an Nvidia H100 or the upcoming Blackwell chips without ASML’s photolithography machines. They are the toll booth for the entire semiconductor industry. When ASML posts a record quarter of this magnitude, it sends a clear signal: the largest technology infrastructure buildout in human history is accelerating, not slowing down.
The "Veldhoven" Signal
What makes this report so compelling to me isn't just the headline number; it is the composition of those orders. More than half of the bookings €7.4 billion were for their Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
These are the most sophisticated, complex, and expensive machines in the world, required to manufacture the most advanced chips at 3nm and 2nm nodes. This tells us that the demand isn't for legacy nodes or commodity chips; it is squarely focused on the bleeding edge of compute power required for training and running massive AI models.
ASML’s Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet explicitly stated that customers have a "notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation." This directly contradicts the fears of an "AI air pocket" or a pause in spending.
In fact, this aligns perfectly with what we are seeing from the hyperscalers. Meta Platforms and Microsoft are pouring hundreds of billions into data centers. TSMC just announced they anticipate capital spending of more than $52 billion in 2026. You don't spend $52 billion on CapEx unless you have a crystal clear line of sight into end-market demand.
The Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Play
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, recently called this the "largest infrastructure build out in human history" and estimated a need for trillions of dollars of additional investment.
I believe the market is still having trouble wrapping its head around the sheer scale of this. We are moving from general-purpose computing to accelerated computing, and that requires replacing roughly $1 trillion worth of traditional data centers with AI factories.
ASML’s machinery is the integral component in this transition. The fact that their order book exploded to this degree confirms that chipmakers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are racing to secure capacity for 2026 and beyond. They are voting with their wallets, and that vote is a resounding vote of confidence in the longevity of the AI cycle.
The China Floor
There is another aspect of this report that I think the market is underappreciating, and that is the resilience of the Chinese market.
Despite US-led restrictions preventing ASML from selling its most advanced EUV and even some deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools to China, the region still accounted for 36% of net system sales in the fourth quarter.
While Chinese chipmakers are restricted to buying older equipment that is eight generations behind the most sophisticated models, the demand remains robust. They are buying up older equipment to manufacture mature chips, which creates a solid revenue floor for ASML while the AI boom provides the exponential ceiling.
The Valuation Reality
The AI boom has pushed ASML’s market value over $500 billion this month, and looking at the guidance, I believe this premium is justified. Revenue is seen between €34 billion and €39 billion this year, which is higher than previous guidance.
However, there is one piece of "fine print" in the report that investors need to watch. ASML stated they won’t report bookings in future quarterly reports, arguing the metric doesn't accurately capture business momentum due to lumpiness.
Usually, when a company stops reporting a key metric, it raises a red flag. But given the massive lead times and the astronomical price tag of these machines, quarterly bookings can indeed be incredibly volatile. The sheer size of the backlog they just built gives them tremendous visibility, regardless of quarter-to-quarter fluctuations.
[Guys! Please Make Sure To Like And Repost If You Like Our Content]
![hataf_capital's tweet photo. ASML Just Obliterated The "Peak AI" Narrative
$ASML
By Hataf Capital
If you have been listening to the bears lately, you have probably heard the narrative that we are approaching "peak AI" or that the infrastructure spend is getting ahead of itself.
Well, ASML Holding NV $ASML just took that narrative and completely dismantled it.
The Dutch semiconductor equipment giant reported its Q4 order bookings on Wednesday, and the numbers were not just good they were absolutely staggering. The market was expecting bookings of €6.85 billion. Instead, ASML delivered a record €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion).
Let that sink in for a moment. They didn't just beat estimates; they nearly doubled them.
I have been writing about the AI infrastructure buildout for months, covering everything from Nvidia’s dominance to Dell’s server pivot and the power constraints benefiting Vistra and Constellation Energy. But ASML’s report is arguably the most critical data point we have seen yet because ASML sits at the very beginning of the supply chain.
You can’t build an Nvidia H100 or the upcoming Blackwell chips without ASML’s photolithography machines. They are the toll booth for the entire semiconductor industry. When ASML posts a record quarter of this magnitude, it sends a clear signal: the largest technology infrastructure buildout in human history is accelerating, not slowing down.
The "Veldhoven" Signal
What makes this report so compelling to me isn't just the headline number; it is the composition of those orders. More than half of the bookings €7.4 billion were for their Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines.
These are the most sophisticated, complex, and expensive machines in the world, required to manufacture the most advanced chips at 3nm and 2nm nodes. This tells us that the demand isn't for legacy nodes or commodity chips; it is squarely focused on the bleeding edge of compute power required for training and running massive AI models.
ASML’s Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet explicitly stated that customers have a "notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation." This directly contradicts the fears of an "AI air pocket" or a pause in spending.
In fact, this aligns perfectly with what we are seeing from the hyperscalers. Meta Platforms and Microsoft are pouring hundreds of billions into data centers. TSMC just announced they anticipate capital spending of more than $52 billion in 2026. You don't spend $52 billion on CapEx unless you have a crystal clear line of sight into end-market demand.
The Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Play
Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, recently called this the "largest infrastructure build out in human history" and estimated a need for trillions of dollars of additional investment.
I believe the market is still having trouble wrapping its head around the sheer scale of this. We are moving from general-purpose computing to accelerated computing, and that requires replacing roughly $1 trillion worth of traditional data centers with AI factories.
ASML’s machinery is the integral component in this transition. The fact that their order book exploded to this degree confirms that chipmakers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are racing to secure capacity for 2026 and beyond. They are voting with their wallets, and that vote is a resounding vote of confidence in the longevity of the AI cycle.
The China Floor
There is another aspect of this report that I think the market is underappreciating, and that is the resilience of the Chinese market.
Despite US-led restrictions preventing ASML from selling its most advanced EUV and even some deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools to China, the region still accounted for 36% of net system sales in the fourth quarter.
While Chinese chipmakers are restricted to buying older equipment that is eight generations behind the most sophisticated models, the demand remains robust. They are buying up older equipment to manufacture mature chips, which creates a solid revenue floor for ASML while the AI boom provides the exponential ceiling.
The Valuation Reality
The AI boom has pushed ASML’s market value over $500 billion this month, and looking at the guidance, I believe this premium is justified. Revenue is seen between €34 billion and €39 billion this year, which is higher than previous guidance.
However, there is one piece of "fine print" in the report that investors need to watch. ASML stated they won’t report bookings in future quarterly reports, arguing the metric doesn't accurately capture business momentum due to lumpiness.
Usually, when a company stops reporting a key metric, it raises a red flag. But given the massive lead times and the astronomical price tag of these machines, quarterly bookings can indeed be incredibly volatile. The sheer size of the backlog they just built gives them tremendous visibility, regardless of quarter-to-quarter fluctuations.
[Guys! Please Make Sure To Like And Repost If You Like Our Content]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G_u7bszXMAAiorS.jpg)
@BollwerkAI First regulatory win? Not really if you take into account NMIBC in US
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