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As resumption of military operations seem more feasible than ever in last 6 weeks..time to replug my overall assessment, war aims and possible military Options
1-Overall assessment
https://t.co/lVa89DT6Gf
2-A thread on American War Objectives and Possible Plans
https://t.co/f8KZV7FDzO
3- Possible Plans
https://t.co/V4wEILV0Xb
1-The difference between Iran & US are coming to fore & duplicity of mediator, General Asim Muneer is also coming out slowly
2-There are reports that Iran has been able to retain significant part of its missile & drone capabilities & it has been rearming itself in this pause
3-On American side, the build up of Troops continues & an additional Aircraft career has reportedly entered the Red Sea..if we link it to American military’s publicised recent visit to Somaliland & Iranian feelers on activation of Houthi’s..Bab-al-Mandab Strait is the next escalation
4-In the meantime, Global frustration over closure of Gulf of Hormuz has resulted in over 50 Nations including India joining a French initiative for ensuring passage of merchant shipping through the strait. It remains to be seen what actual actions this grouping takes, but it’s an important signal to Iran
5-Firing on an Indian commercial ship coming from UAE, by Iranian Navy, is a carefully designed demonstration of Iranian anger over perceived Israeli tilt of both Nations in War
6-Iranians have tacitly been avoiding attack on Saudi-Qatar-Turkish interests, trying to exploit the differences between Middle Eastern Nations..this also defers to Pakistan, the sole mediator. But any escalation in Bab-al-Mandab will hurt Saudi Interests…
7-I have written on Pakistani mediation at link below, but any military escalation on Saudi Interests, may also have an impact on negotiations, due to Saudi-Pakistan defence pact..which will be a precarious situation for Pakistan
https://t.co/Zaak4U0fiX
8-The recent events confirm that Iranian regime is not yet subdued & its stance is ideologically hardening..peacemakers are being ridiculed & Military is coming to fore.
9-I foresee resumption of military operations to put greater pressure on Iran. This may well be a more dangerous phase than the last one, due to desperation on both sides, to terminate the conflict on own terms
A comparison of Leadership & Strength of Army & Police in India
1- Police Authorised Strength in India is 27.55 lakh personnel. As on 01 January 2024, we had 21.62 Lakh personnel available.
2-The total Sanctioned Strength of IPS officers is 5055 & 4594 Officers are available(including 1187 promotee IPS officers). Among this strength we have 806 Officers of DGP, Special DG or ADGP ranks. If we include all officers from Deputy SP & above, Sanctioned Strength is 18983 officers & 15831 officers are present.
3-The total authorised strength of Indian Army is 12.48 Lakh personnel and actual strength is 11.47 Lakh personnel.
4-Total authorised number of officers in Indian Army is 50538 but actual strength is 42095 officers. Among this approximately 90 officers are authorised as Lieutenant Generals.
5-This means 1 in 6 officers (if we consider only IPS) remain at top rank of their service at any given point of time. If we also consider State Police Service officer 1 in 100 officers in Police Leadership attains top most appointment even though hardly anyone from State Service reaches these two ranks. Wherein in Army 1 in 560 officers attains rank of Lieutenant General.
6- In fact Non Functional Upgradation means that all Central Civil Service officers including IPS officers will generally attain top most ranks in their service, if they qualify age wise.
Data screenshots are attached for reference. May also see Data on Police Organisations dated 01 January 2024, available at the link below..
https://t.co/uI7HvpJiRx
Civil Military Fusion is the bedrock of Atmanibharta in India..and also perhaps the root cause that will decide whether India will become a Great Power or not…read on to understand why I am saying so..
1-Current share of India in Global Manufacturing is about 3 percent. This share is projected to rise to 10 percent by 2040
2-India’s military budget has remained below 2 percent of GDP on average for decades now..being a developing nation a significant rise in defence budget allocations is unlikely
3-So where is the opportunity for Aatmanirbharta? The answer lies in point Number 1..India’s industrialisation in next 15 years is also the opportunity for rapid development of Military Industrial Complex..there is no separate money
How is it possible? Let’s see with an example
4-In entire period between 1900-2000, US share in Global Manufacturing on an average remained above 25 percent. Chinese share in Global Manufacturing was 4 percent in 1995. However in Year 2010..that is in 15 years..China overtook US to become the largest manufacturer.
5-But it didn’t invoke Civil Military Fusion as yet. This happened in Jan 2017, China made a Leading Group on Civil Military Fusion, which created an Institutional Structure to drive Civil Military Fusion as a state policy.
6-China made laws, created dedicated funds, Special Economic Zones, gave tax incentives and created an environment to encourage Civil Military Fusion.
7-Chinese urgency was based on the fact that Civilian and Military domains are gradually converging. Drones(DJI-Unmanned Systems Operations), Artificial Intelligence(DeekSeek-Claude of China), Algorithms(TikTok-Influence Operations), Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving(Energy Security & Unmanned Ground Vehicles), Robotics, CCTVs(Hikvision..Intelligence Gathering), Mobile Phones & Operating Systems (Huawei & Harmony OS- Intelligence Gathering & Supply Chain security) as well as traditional sectors such as Shipping, Aviation (C919- Both Civilian & Military Uses) and so on..by Chinese estimates there is more than 80 percent commonalities between Civilian and Military Industries today compared to 30 percent commonality in World War II
8- Now China leads the world in most of emerging and critical technologies..and as a corollary it also leads in military applications of these technologies
9-Fast forward..in 2024 Chinese share of Global Manufacturing was 28 percent & US was at 17 percent. This changed in 2025 to 26 percent of China & about 19 percent of US. Is the Great Power Contestation between China & US, an opportunity for India? Only time will tell..
10-But we are standing at 1995 of China..we should not wait till it’s 2017 to launch Civil Military Fusion..it way we’ll be the difference between whether we succeed in our Great Power Ambitions or not…
It has been more than 6 years and 3 months since India appointed its first Chief of Defence Staff. That we still don’t have Theatre Commands is a great failure of successive military leadership of India
Those searching for illusive consensus, will never find one..it’s a fit case of ‘paralysis by analysis’ in my opinion
In the era of Wars, it’s high time that senior military leadership gets its act together and begin Theatrisation in right earnest..
India should set up a Inter Ministerial Working Group to promote Civil Military Fusion
It should be headed by Prime Minister himself, if we are too meaningful and urgent changes
As India industrialises..we must hard wire Civil Military Fusion in this..
@jitenkparmar@policybazaar@CareHealthIndia This is an unspoken rule of insurance companies: DDD (delay, deny, delay). They will ask for the same documents repeatedly until you eventually give up.
@ShekharGupta I heed to your knowledge on Srilanka & Nepal..mine is based on cursory readings..though some serious research also available on Nepal. link
https://t.co/N2rWAkvjiP
Bangladesh arguably not so distant..2009 BGR revolt & foiled 2011-12 Coup. Link
https://t.co/OxIpgrpqlM
Mr Balendra Shah of RSP will be the next Prime Minister of Nepal.
He is only 35 years of age..and he will have an unprecedented majority..lots of Nepali hopes and dreams riding on his shoulders
Hoping that in his reign India and Nepal friendship grows
सातवां दिन
रूस और चीन की सहायता के संकेत सामने आ रहे हैं
ईरान की आंतरिक एकता अमरीका के य��द्ध उद्देश्यों लिए सबसे बड़ा खतरा है
ईरान में बहुतायत में पहाड़ी इलाके हैं, जो एक संगठित गुरिल्ला लड़ाई के लिए उपयुक्त है..इसलिए अमरीकी जमीनी हमला बहुत मुश्किल है
चौथा दिन
ईरान के हाई कमांड,नौसेना और वायु रक्षा प्रणाली को ख़त्म किया जा रहा है,पर ईरान के ड्रोन और मिसाइल हमले ज़ारी हैं
ईरान के युद्ध कौशल से अमरीका में लंबी लड़ाई का डर पैदा हुआ है,ईरान में सत्तापलट नहीं हो रहा ये अमरीका के लिए निराशा का विषय है
लगता है युद्ध अभी चलेगा
पांचवा दिन
ईरान के ड्रोन मिसाइल हमले कम हुए हैं पर चालू हैं
नौसेना और वायुसेना लगभग निष्क्रिय हो गई है
IRGC की कुर्द्स के साथ पश्चिम में लड़ाई शुरू है
उच्च स्तर पर युद्ध का निर्देशन कमजोर
लग रहा है
ईरानी को चीन ��र रूस के सहयोग की ज़रूरत है
पर सरकार को लोगो का समर्थन है
छठा दिन
ईरान शीर्ष स्तर पर पुनर्नियोजित लगता है,सामरिक संदेश में नई स्फूर्ति है
डिस्ट्रॉयर पर हमले के बाद भारत का ईरान के प्रति रूख बदला लगता है
युद्ध जमीनी सीमाओ में फ़ैल रहा है,ईरान अभी भी नए लक्ष्यों को निशाना बना पा रहा है और आंतरिक रूप से संगठित है
लड़ाई अभी चलेगी
@clashreport This is true & Erik is smart.
But when You make force as centre of National Identity and military coercion as a default tool of choice..there will be hits and misses
Venezuela -hit
Iran - no matter what happens tactically, strategically it’s a Miss
ईरान युद्ध का तीसरा दिन
अयातुल्ला ख़ामेनी की मृत्यु का शोक और ईरान की जनता का जन आक्रोश अभी भी बना हुआ है।
पर ईरान द्वारा किये गए आक्रमण अब सऊदी अरब के तेल की रिफाइनरीज और क���र के प्राकृतिक गैस के कारखानों तक पहुँच गए हैं..संयुक्त अरब अमीरात के दुबई एयरपोर्ट और मशहूर इमारतों पर हमले के बाद मध्य पूर्व के तेल के व्यवसाय पर आक्रमण से अरब देशों में ईरान के ख़िलाफ़ सहमति बन गई है । अमरीका के लिए ये कुछ सुकून की बात है ।
आख़िर ईरान ने ये हमले क्यों किए? शायद इसलिए कि ये देश अमरीका पर युद्ध रोकने का दबाव डालें या शायद इसलिए कि ईरान की सेना पर केंद्रीय नियंत्रण अब कम हो गया है और सेना के अलग अलग क्षेत्रों और शाखाओं के अधिकारी स्वायत्त निर्णय ले रहे हैं ..और शायद अयातुल्लाह की मृत्यु के आक्रोश में वह सभी को सबक सिखाना चाहते हैं ..ये संभव है पर असली सत्य क्या है , ये अभी युद्ध के कोहरे में छुपा हुआ है और इसका पता धीरे धीरे ही चलेगा ।
आज भारत ने भी लड़ाई को लेकर अपना रूख साफ़ कर दिया है ..पहले संयुक्त अरब अमीरात और इसराइल के साथ और फिर सऊदी अरब के राष्ट्राध्यक्षों से प्र���ानमंत्री मोदी की बातचीत से ये लगता है की अब ईरान के प्रशासन पर दाव लगाने का भ्रम भी नहीं रखा जा रहा ।
दूसरे दिन का सार
अयातुल्ला ख़ामेनी की मृत्यु ईरानी प्रशासन के लिए एक वरदान साबित हो रहा है । ईरान के लोग भारी संख्या में विरोध प्रदर्शन कर रहे हैं और ये मृत्यु लोगों में एकता और राष्ट्रीयता का भाव पैदा कर रही है ।
इसके साथ खाड़ी के देशों में ईरान के हमले के विरुद्ध जो सहमति बनी थी वो अब अयातुल्ला की मृत्यु की सहानुभूति में बदल गई है ।
ऐसे में अमरीका को अपनी रणनीति में थोड़ा बदलाव करना पड़ सकता है । ट्रम्प का बातचीत की ओर इशारा शायद इस सहानुभूति की लहर को तोड़ने का ही एक प्रयास है ।
Trying to change my bsnl landline plan in the Metro City of Kolkata
It’s just 16 days. Step 1 took 15 days
Then comes Step 2
I wonder what will take to close this connection !!
I am sure that in this age and time..we can do a little better..can’t we?
@BSNLCorporate@bsnl_care@BSNL_KOTD
It’s very sad to see so many arguments turning vicious in recent times by many defence focused handles here
One should be able to convey a point without getting into a vicious argument which goes downhill
Hope to see sane debates, views and counter views on contentious subjects and ability to speak freely without being judgemental.
There is so much to learn from so many young as well as experienced people here..
Edge computing is what I am most excited about. This has most uses for Closed User Groups like military
Would love to see these models run on a downloadable database which can be updated offline.. similar to offline antivirus updates
Areas like voice translations, OCR, document reading, writing and analysis ..map, satellite data, video analysis have huge potential to change the way militaries operate..
As I said earlier..Sarvam Team should think of Military Use cases at outset and incorporate feedback’s .. this will bring great value on both sides